Yes or No -AV referendum May 2011

[butchersapron]

If you're still voting lib-dem in a few years time i reckon the chances are that you'll be pretty happy with the coalition and it's policies - otherwise why vote for them? If you're left-wing you will no longer be voting lib-dem full stop. You really do appear to be operating on very outdated maps.

 

[kabbes]

Butchers is right. I can't see myself voting LibDem again for a generation at least.

 

[articul8]

If you're still voting lib-dem in a few years time i reckon the chances are that you'll be pretty happy with the coalition and it's policies - otherwise why vote for them? If you're left-wing you will no longer be voting lib-dem full stop. You really do appear to be operating on very outdated maps.

I don't think this is true a) because they'll start trying to distance themselves a good 18 months to 2 years before the election and b) because at local level where they're fighting the Tories their "vote" will already include a lot of Labour/Green supporters that have "gone native" and started to identify with the LDs because of lack of viable local alternatives and 3) the LDs constitute the main local opposition to the Tories still.

Obviously many won't feel like this - and they face an uphill battle to keep people on board. But don't automaticaly assume that anyone still voting LD is doing so out of appreciation for their role supporting Cameron.

 

[frogwoman]

eh? they're in government !

 

[butchersapron]

I don't think this is true a) because they'll start trying to distance themselves a good 18 months to 2 years before the election and b) because at local level where they're fighting the Tories their "vote" will already include a lot of Labour/Green supporters that have "gone native" and started to identify with the LDs because of lack of viable local alternatives and 3) the LDs constitute the main local opposition to the Tories still.

I think you're underestimating both the political nous of the electorate and the anger at the lib-dems amongst those who for whatever reason saw them as a left or anti-tory vote. They're not going to be mugged off by a few obvious manouveres from people they know know are shameless liars who'd say anything to stay in power. You don't appear to have a grasp on what's changed post-may. They have lost that left or anti-tory vote - it's gone. It's simply not going to be there to leave if the lib-dems recommend a tory 2nd pref as per your scenario. (your scenario is a it mad btw - is Clegg going to beg Cameron not to support AV?)

 

[butchersapron]

I don't think it's true the Yes to AV campaign hasn't kicked off. Here's some stuff they've already got rolling. I checked out the local co-ordinators. Guess what? They're the local young lib-dems. No one will go near them, their presence is going to actively sabotage the yes vote.

 

[articul8]

eh? they're in government !

err yes - but that doesn't stop people still thinking that electing a LD is a lesser evil to represent their patch than to have a Tory. Or thinking they'll vote LIberal becuase they always have and they like that nice simon hughes but phew what a relief not to be in that coalition any more etc. People can rationalise their positions in different ways.

not sure what Butchers is getting at with this "scenario" I'm meant to have dreamt up about Clegg imploring Cameron not to back AV. LDs don't need to worry about getting Tories to support it, and anyway they won't.

 

[articul8]

I don't think it's true the Yes to AV campaign hasn't kicked off. Here's some stuff they've already got rolling. I checked out the local co-ordinators. Guess what? They're the local young lib-dems. No one will go near them, their presence is going to actively sabotage the yes vote.

It's only just beginning to gear up. Of course there are some LDs involved, particularly in areas where they relatively strong. But not all the local organisers are LDs - they are drawn from a cross-party and non-party basis

 

[frogwoman]

my point is that i don't tihnk everyone is gonna be percieving the lib dems as slightly better than the tories. if you support the tories then you might as well vote tory.

a lot of lib dems and (former) party members feel utterly betrayed over this.

 

[butchersapron]

It's only just beginning to gear up. Of course there are some LDs involved, particularly in areas where they relatively strong. But not all the local organisers are LDs - they are drawn from a cross-party and non-party basis

You can sell it to yourself as a pluralist utopia (one including extremist neo-liberals mind), but i know full well, the lib-dems running it in the cities will sabotage it by their very presence alone, they'll ensure that it'll become a referendum on them and the coalition. And they've already lost that battle.

 

[Streathamite]

b) because at local level where they're fighting the Tories their "vote" will already include a lot of Labour/Green supporters that have "gone native" and started to identify with the LDs because of lack of viable local alternatives and 3) the LDs constitute the main local opposition to the Tories still.

HEH? That'll be the selfsame labour green/leftwhatever supporters who will by that time have seen 2 years of coalition cuts and the consequences of them, cuts defended everystep of the way by the libdems, and who will consequently be hired wired to think "the only difference between the libdems and the tories is that the lib dems pretended they weren't complete bastards! They're both the same".
You really think that those sort of people are gonna vote libdem in locals? That they're gonna say "aah but it's different with our local council"? Like fuck are they! You've lost those sort of people for decades

 

[articul8]

well if you are right - yes we're fucked! But I think there's every chance that the campaign will extend out to become pretty much everyone who isn't either a paid up member of the Tories or the tribal Labour old guard - and will have a lot of people and organisations who are identified with political opposition to the coalition. That's what I'm working on anyway!!!

 

[Crispy]

HEH? That'll be the selfsame labour green/leftwhatever supporters who will by that time have seen 2 years of coalition cuts and the consequences of them, cuts defended everystep of the way by the libdems, and who will consequently be hired wired to think "the only difference between the libdems and the tories is that the lib dems pretended they weren't complete bastards! They're both the same".
You really think that those sort of people are gonna vote libdem in locals? That they're gonna say "aah but it's different with our local council"? Like fuck are they! You've lost those sort of people for decades

Quite. I'd previously been open to vote LD if it meant keeping the tories out (but having lived in very safe labour areas, never followed through), but now would point blank refuse to do so on principle.

 

[frogwoman]

well if you are right - yes we're fucked! But I think there's every chance that the campaign will extend out to become pretty much everyone who isn't either a paid up member of the Tories or the tribal Labour old guard - and will have a lot of people and organisations who are identified with political opposition to the coalition. That's what I'm working on anyway!!!

why do you want av articul8? surely if you want voting reform it should be the real fucking thing?

 

[articul8]

You really think that those sort of people are gonna vote libdem in locals? That they're gonna say "aah but it's different with our local council"? Like fuck are they! You've lost those sort of people for decades

a) I am not a Lib Dem (so fuck off there for a start!) b) they'll get hammered in the locals, agreed and c) yes they're likely to suffer at the next GE. But what I'm saying is that, particularly if FPTP is still in place, among the LD vote will be people who aren't comfortable with the coalition but can rationalise their continued voting LD (lesser evil, local issues, identifying with Simon Hughes, lack of other opposition parties, falling for LD distancing themselves). EVEN those who would STILL vote LD 1st pref in an AV election would still not all transfer to the Tories by any stretch.

Don't overestimate the support that Clegg has even within his own voting base.

 

[butchersapron]

well if you are right - yes we're fucked! But I think there's every chance that the campaign will extend out to become pretty much everyone who isn't either a paid up member of the Tories or the tribal Labour old guard - and will have a lot of people and organisations who are identified with political opposition to the coalition. That's what I'm working on anyway!!!

Well a left no vote (using the slogan that both me and Louis - i think - independently came up with) NO to AV - YES to PR has been developing for a few months now.

 

[articul8]

why do you want av articul8? surely if you want voting reform it should be the real fucking thing?

I do want "the real thing". But insofar as we're being given a choice between an utterly shit system (FPTP) and a better one (AV) I want to consign the shit one to the dustbin and get something better. And if it hurts the Tories then the chances of moving onwards to a better system still are still there. Why do you think the Tories are so scared of it? They fear a slippery slope

 

[frogwoman]

the tories aren't scared of it though.

 

[articul8]

Quite. I'd previously been open to vote LD if it meant keeping the tories out (but having lived in very safe labour areas, never followed through), but now would point blank refuse to do so on principle.

Easy to say now. But the logic of lesser evilism will creep back in. AV would allow people to show they were politically opposed to the LDs - by giving someone else a 1st pref - but then casting an effective anti-Tory vote whilst making clear that's what it was. Otherwise you are just saying that the left will stay at home and the Tories will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of walkovers in whole swaths of the south.

 

[articul8]

the tories aren't scared of it though.

name me even 1 Tory MP who is in favour?

 

[Crispy]

The lesser evil is now labour.

 

[butchersapron]

the tories aren't scared of it though.

...and it isn't any better and if it was it's not worth throwing away the opp to damage the coalition so the lib-lefts long held dream can come a (false) step closer.

 

[butchersapron]

name me even 1 Tory MP who is in favour?

The Tory MP who signed Caroline Lucas' amendment to place PR and other voting methods on the bill. The PR amendment that not a single lib-dem voted for.

The tories don't want AV, they're not in the slightest bit scared of it though. The immediate reason Louis outlined above - the lib-dms and the tories will be scratching each others back as regards 2nd prefs if AV is passed.

 

[Streathamite]

well if you are right - yes we're fucked! But I think there's every chance that the campaign will extend out to become pretty much everyone who isn't either a paid up member of the Tories or the tribal Labour old guard - and will have a lot of people and organisations who are identified with political opposition to the coalition. That's what I'm working on anyway!!!

fine - but every single time someone canvasses for a 'yes' in the referendum, and people remember them with those yellow rosettes on from a coupla years back - that's votes haemorrhaged

 

[Streathamite]

Easy to say now. But the logic of lesser evilism will creep back in. AV would allow people to show they were politically opposed to the LDs - by giving someone else a 1st pref - but then casting an effective anti-Tory vote whilst making clear that's what it was. Otherwise you are just saying that the left will stay at home and the Tories will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of walkovers in whole swaths of the south.

but who would the anti-tory vote be for? Monster Raving Loony? Their coalition partners, the LDs? WHO?

 

[Streathamite]

Don't overestimate the support that Clegg has even within his own voting base.

you mean the support yougov reckons is now down to 11%?

 

[kabbes]

but who would the anti-tory vote be for? Monster Raving Loony? Their coalition partners, the LDs? WHO?

It would be for a party that is actually anti-Tory rather than for one that joins up with the Tories.

 

[butchersapron]

but who would the anti-tory vote be for? Monster Raving Loony? Their coalition partners, the LDs? WHO?

An anti-tory lib-dem vote of course! After the anti-lib-dem vote in the first preference. It's madness, and appears to be based on a refusal to face up to what has changed since may.

 

[articul8]

The Tory MP who signed Caroline Lucas' amendment to place PR and other voting methods on the bill. The PR amendment that not a single lib-dem voted for.

The tories don't want AV, they're not in the slightest bit scared of it though. The immediate reason Louis outlined above - the lib-dms and the tories will be scratching each others back as regards 2nd prefs if AV is passed.

No, Carswell et al have been given free reign to bang a drum for PR in order to split the pro-AV forces. He doesn't want AV and calls the ERS "Knaves and charlatans" for campaigning for it. The majority of the Tories (bar possibly the ultra-Cameronites like Boles who might be up for some preference swapping) hate AV because they resent having to work in coaltion. Cameron's own weak position in the party means he has to say he hates AV even if he's not too bothered or even quite likes it personally.

You are missing the distinction between where Clegg and company are, and the frankly very uneven and politically disparate base of LD voters. FPTP means that insofar as any opposition exists to the Tories in many (partic rural) areas, it is LD because Labour basically now runs a ghost operation in those areas. LDs will start to face both ways again as the election approaches - and won't rule out going into coalition with Labour is my prediction.

 

[Streathamite]

An anti-tory lib-dem vote of course! After the anti-lib-dem vote in the first preference. It's madness, and appears to be based on a refusal to face up to what has changed since may.

thank god you said it's madness, the logic twists on this thread are making me chainchomp nurofen