Will you vote for independence?

[butchersapron]

You mistake me. It's not a question of Tories vs Labour, but of a generic right-of-centre vs a generic left-of-centre. Just look at legislatures around the western world. You could label them Republicans and Democrats (US) or UMP and Socialist (France) or Liberal and Labor (Oz) or ... There will be a party or grouping that's to the right of the centre and a party or grouping that's to the left of the centre. Scotland's centre will be different from England's centre, but there will be a right-of-centre and a left-of-centre.

Great balls of tautologous argumentation!

 

[danny la rouge]

You mistake me.

No, I understood you.

 

[butchersapron]

Really?? Have you looked at the voting results for the last 10 years or so? Have you looked at photos of any Tory events lately?? I don't know anyone under the age of 45 who would even think of voting tory. The Tory party is a zombie up here. I do watch the Tories(know thine enemy), they are not a young and up and coming party. I really don't see this changing in my lifetime.
The Labour vote is also at an all time low because they have moved right. They are winning by elections on 16%(ish) of the electorate.

16% of the electorate is not nothing though (that's the tory 16% btw) - it's enough to play a role in the referendum and in any post-independence PR set up. The tory party used to be the scottish party - i doubt few people foresaw it's current predicament, nevertheless, here we are.

What do you mean by labour are winning seats on 16% of the electorate?

 

[JTG]

It's possible. Not, I'd think, immediately. But, yes. The largest number I see potentially splitting away would be parliamentary socialists. But anyone who thinks a sizeable number would join the Tories is missing the point. The SNP is perceived as left of centre. Most people will tell you that the SNP is to the left of Labour. Whether they are or not doesn't matter: nobody votes SNP thinking them a good substitute for the Tories. Indeed, I'd argue that one reason they did well in 2011 is that Westminster had just delivered a Tory/LibDem government in 2010. Voting SNP was seen by many as a defence to mitigate against that.

Even if there are right-of-centre SNP MSPs, their electoral future would not be rosy were they to leave for a new right-of-centre party.

Thanks, that makes sense

 

[Quartz]

Really?? Have you looked at the voting results for the last 10 years or so? Have you looked at photos of any Tory events lately?? I don't know anyone under the age of 45 who would even think of voting tory. The Tory party is a zombie up here. I do watch the Tories(know thine enemy), they are not a young and up and coming party. I really don't see this changing in my lifetime.

Stop thinking in terms of 'Tories' and 'Labour' and think to the long-term future by looking at history. There will be a right-of-centre party and there will be a left-of-centre party, and they will share power between them. Where that centre line will be is another matter.

 

[butchersapron]

Stop thinking in terms of 'Tories' and 'Labour' and think to the long-term future by looking at history. There will be a right-of-centre party and there will be a left-of-centre party, and they will share power between them. Where that centre line will be is another matter.

If, everywhere you look you divide things into left and right then guess what you're going to see everywhere?

 

[danny la rouge]

Stop thinking in terms of 'Tories' and 'Labour' and think to the long-term future by looking at history. There will be a right-of-centre party and there will be a left-of-centre party, and they will share power between them. Where that centre line will be is another matter.

After a Yes vote, the SNP would win the first election on a wave of triumph. It will not disintegrate for a generation at least. People may leave, but far fewer than would constitute a breakup of the party.

Even if Labour and the Tories rename themselves the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democrats (or whatever), the scenario I described in my previous post above would pertain. The centre right will be a minority for the foreseeable future.

 

[marty21]

Salmond can pretty much sit back at the moment - Cameron and Osborne are doing better campaigning for independence than he is

 

[geminisnake]

The tory party used to be the scottish party - i doubt few people foresaw it's current predicament, nevertheless, here we are.

What do you mean by labour are winning seats on 16% of the electorate?

I think you'll find it was the Conservative and Unionist party that had support a long time ago afaik, it was before I was old enough to have an interest in politics.

The last few by elections have been won by Labour, the turnout has been about 30% at the highest, of that Labour have gotten about 1/2 of the vote so that's about 16%. Which has been described as Labour's core vote(a lot of that was postal ). The people of Scotland are rejecting them, just as they have rejected the Tories for being right of centre, afaican see.

 

[butchersapron]

I think you'll find it was the Conservative and Unionist party that had support a long time ago afaik, it was before I was old enough to have an interest in politics.

The last few by elections have been won by Labour, the turnout has been about 30% at the highest, of that Labour have gotten about 1/2 of the vote so that's about 16%. Which has been described as Labour's core vote(a lot of that was postal ). The people of Scotland are rejecting them, just as they have rejected the Tories for being right of centre, afaican see.

That's the tory party.

What elections are you on about? I think you may need to double check your memory here. Scotland was the only part of the country where the labour vote went up in the last general election as well.

 

[geminisnake]

There have been several by elections in the last few months. I don't know whether they were Westminster or Holyrood, try googling recent scottish by elections. They were all red monkey territory so I don't really care.

 

[butchersapron]

For gods sake.

 

[Frankie Jack]

Fife seats recently. Taken by Labour.

 

[butchersapron]

Fife seats recently. Taken by Labour.

Ta, That would be the one with a 11.25% swing from the SNP to Labour then.

 

[weepiper]

The Cowdenbeath by-election Labour won 55% of the vote on a 38% turnout. Dunfermline they won 42% of the vote on a 42% turnout. In both of those by-elections there was a significant swing TO Labour.

 

[Frankie Jack]

Alex Rowley, Ex councillor and Broonie, held the seat for Labour. He really is a typical Labour bloke. Can't stand the man. Cara Hilton that took the seat in Dunfermline on saving schools in the area then signed off on closing them once in. She's a shoe in boosting the numbers of women but does'nt seem much cop to me.

 

[weepiper]

Alex Rowley, Ex councillor and Broonie, held the seat for Labour. He really is a typical Labour bloke. Can't stand the man. Cara Hilton that took the seat in Dunfermline on saving schools in the area then signed off on closing them once in. She's a shoe in boosting the numbers of women but does'nt seem much cop to me.

They're both wankers but that doesn't mean we can write off the people that voted them in.

 

[Frankie Jack]

Oh no. I wouldn't. Fife's my home stomping ground. There are some diehards there though that swallow all the gumph fed them. Last time I was over there were still the codger types out in the pubs over the weekends with their affiliation badges on their jackets like stalwarts of the communities. They need a dashit good shake up.

 

[DexterTCN]

Tonight it's an STV 'debate'. They're both a bit shouty.

Lamont shoutily defending the tories.

 

[ska invita]

Salmond can pretty much sit back at the moment - Cameron and Osborne are doing better campaigning for independence than he is

no, they're not trying hard enough dammit

 

[Frankie Jack]

Said in the debate tonight.

 

[Frankie Jack]

Has to go in the bandwidth thread too surely.

 

[danny la rouge]

I was sent this this morning.



I didn't see the debate, and the clip doesn't give much context, but on the face of it an astonishing ( ) statement to make.

Anyone see it and know what point she was making?

 

[geminisnake]

The woman is a cretin Apparently Nicola fell into the ranty trap and it wasn't pretty.

 

[xslavearcx]

I was sent this this morning.



I didn't see the debate, and the clip doesn't give much context, but on the face of it an astonishing ( ) statement to make.

Anyone see it and know what point she was making?

It was out of context but it was still a funny way of wording her point. She was talking about welfare policies such as the bedroom tax and if it was less likely that a policy like that would come into being in a context of scottish independance. she was making the point that political arguments would still need to be won for any policy to come into being and that scots are not inherently driven to a particular set of policies hence why independance from her pov is irrelevant to the discussion on welfare policy.

So she kinda made the opposite point of what that quote in isolation appears to be saying - it was clunkily put together but still funny nevertheless

 

[danny la rouge]

OK, I've seen the context of what Lamont said, and to be honest it doesn't help much. It's a weird turn of phrase, and her point is made incoherently.

Rona Dougall (chairing debate): Your social justice spokesperson Jackie Baillie said that the introduction of the so-called Bedroom Tax was nothing to do with the constitution. In an independent Scotland, would this policy ever have been introduced?

Johann Lamont: Well, certainly, I wouldn’t support it, Ed Miliband doesn’t support it. We see the indignity it’s created. My point about the Bedroom Tax, that’s about political choices. We can’t presume that that an independent Scotland somehow…

Rona Dougall: But it was introduced under Westminster rule, Johann

JL: Yes of course, but it could be introduced anywhere if people believed it was a good idea. We’re not genetically programmed in Scotland to make political decisions, we choose the world we want to live in. And we have to win the political argument.


She's saying that merely being independent doesn't mean the Bedroom Tax wouldn't have been introduced. She's right; it's not the fact of independence that means that the bedroom tax wouldn't be introduced. Westminster is independent and it did introduce the bedroom tax.

However, she misses the point. It requires a right of centre government with an austerity ideology and a far right upstart party (UKIP) snapping at its heels on 12 - 17% of the vote (depending on which opinion poll you look at) to make that policy. An independent Scotland would not have that, not because of independence but because of the electoral decisions of the voters in Scotland. (That is not to say it couldn't ever happen. Which I think is what Lamont was trying to say).

 

[xslavearcx]

i've hear people who are in the yes camp stating that nicola sturgeon came on top on that discussion. it didnt look that way to me at all - neither of them seemed to 'win' that particular debate. I guess this shows that whilst she might not be the most astute or articulate leader, she is definately a cut above iain grey who i reckon would probably have just started crying under these kidna conditions...

 

[danny la rouge]

i've hear people who are in the yes camp stating that nicola sturgeon came on top on that discussion.

SNP supporters will see whatever they want to see. I'm really not interested in personalities, just good arguments.

 

[xslavearcx]

SNP supporters will see whatever they want to see. I'm really not interested in personalities, just good arguments.

not really intersted in personalities myself. but watching iain grey as labour leader in the last election was pretty entertaining stuff!

 

[geminisnake]

Wings started a fundraiser today, this morning in fact(it's jumped 2k in about 5 minutes)

£44,824GBP

Raised of £53,000 Goal

34 days left