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Will you vote for independence?

Scottish independence?

  • Yes please

    Votes: 99 56.6%
  • No thanks

    Votes: 57 32.6%
  • Dont know yet

    Votes: 17 9.7%

  • Total voters
    175
Do you really think the Scotsman is a reliable source for anything??
Yes.

All newspapers have agendas, and as long as you know what the agenda is, you can still get information.

This poll was conducted by YouGov, not Johnston Press.

I don't, and how many people did they ask?
It says in the story that is was a "survey of 1,171 Scottish adults".

The Scotsman is also massively in the red and have just devalued their assets. That is all.
That's irrelevant really to whether a YouGov poll says that of 1,171 Scottish adults asked, 59% intend to vote No and 29% intend to vote Yes.

All polls have to be treated with caution, and all sorts of things could happen between now and Thursday 18th September, 2014, but I'd have to say that at the moment, given the kind of conversations I have here (where we have an SNP constituency MSP), that poll seems to reflect pretty accurately what I'm finding anecdotally. Around 2 in 7 will be voting Yes, of the people I speak to.
 
Must be your area, I've hardly spoken to any no voters(most of them are ex squaddies) and was wondering where they all are tbh :) The NE most be very different to the central belt. And this is going on the last 40+ years conversations, not just recent ones :)
 
Must be your area, I've hardly spoken to any no voters(most of them are ex squaddies) and was wondering where they all are tbh :) The NE most be very different to the central belt. And this is going on the last 40+ years conversations, not just recent ones :)
There are fewer people in the NE than the Central Belt.

I want Yes to win. I just think all the evidence suggests otherwise. And that goes for decades of polls, too. 40% is the high water mark. But it's currently way below that.
 
Anecdotal but I'd say it's about 80% yes to 20% no in my workplace (there was quite a bit of discussion after one of the Directors was filmed for the ITV news talking about what effect independence might have on the business as it has shops/employees on both side of the border).
 
The bitter together campaign had a meeting in Glasgow the other day, tory, labour and liberals all putting the boot into Salmond and the snp. Didn't even fill the theatre it was held in, don;t know if it was a public thing.
 
If it's the thing I think it was you had to pass a vetting process to get in Dexter :facepalm: Email, phone number and various other requirements!! Who's going to do that? Obviously not many.

@danny la rouge The last referendum was a yes win but they moved the goalposts. Both the last Holyrood elections were SNP majorities and the majority of polling companies are now owned by tories so I'm not going to trust that as a source of info, and the polls all failed to predict the last 2 Holyrood elections. You seem to be the only one who knows so many no voters. I really hope the yes wins too because I don't want to live here anymore if they don't :(
Just remembered Mori and/or UGov only poll people by landline afaik so they are going to get a squinted result straight off.

Every time I see a no campaign stall it seems to be the councillor from Dundee on her tod, while the photos of the yes ones show otherwise <shrug>
 
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The bitter together campaign had a meeting in Glasgow the other day, tory, labour and liberals all putting the boot into Salmond and the snp. Didn't even fill the theatre it was held in, don;t know if it was a public thing.

Perhaps they should have tried advertising it a bit better? Actually, that goes for both sides: I don't recall seeing any adverts for meetings of either side here in Aberdeen. The two BBC debates I've spotted have both been in Glasgow too.
 
Must be your area, I've hardly spoken to any no voters(most of them are ex squaddies) and was wondering where they all are tbh :) The NE most be very different to the central belt. And this is going on the last 40+ years conversations, not just recent ones :)
Your posts are crazy.
 
geminisnake



There have been two referenda on measures of devolution.

The ‘79 referendum – the one subject to the Cunningham Amendment – was on devolution, and proposed an Assembly with far fewer powers than those of the Parliament proposed in the ’97 referendum.

In ’79, 51.6% voted Yes (on a turnout of 63.8%. Failing to clear the Cunningham hurdle, requiring 40% of Scotland's total registered electorate to vote Yes).

In ’97, two questions were asked; one gave the choice between “I agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament” and “I do not agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament”. The second was to agree or disagree that the Parliament should have tax-varying powers.

Both returned a majority for Yes: 74.3% and 63.5% respectively. The turnout was 60.4% (less than in ’79, but with far more decisive majority for devolution).

In neither of those referenda was independence an option. There has never been an independence referendum; all we have are opinion polls, going back to the rise of the SNP’s fortunes at the first Govan in 1973. In all those 40 years, there has never been a credible poll giving a majority for independence. The high water mark is around 40% in favour.

Polls can get it wrong. But if we have so many over so long suggesting that the majority of Scots don’t want independence, then we do have to pay attention.

YouGov don’t poll by landline.( http://research.yougov.co.uk/ ) They Poll online. They draw demographically-representative samples from a panel of more 400,000 people in the UK, of which I am one. I was indeed asked about independence last week. They have never called my landline.

Ipsos MORI use a mix of methodologies, including face-to-face and internet surveys, and Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer-assisted_telephone_interviewing

Only one of the last two Holyrood elections was an SNP majority.

In 2007, the SNP formed a minority administration. They did not have an outright majority, but they were the largest party, with 47 seats. No other party wanted to go into coalition with them, and although in theory the other parties could have governed with an anti SNP coalition, they did not. So the SNP was able to form a government and govern on its own.

In 2011, the SNP did have an outright majority of seats; the first ever outright majority in the Scottish Parliament. Indeed the electoral system was designed so that there should not ever be an outright majority. In that respect, it failed.

However, support for the SNP is not the same as support for independence. There are many people who vote SNP who do not support independence, and there are many people who support independence who do not vote SNP (I am one of those).

You are correct that the Better Together campaign appears to have no grassroots organisation to speak of. That is also true here. But voters and activists are not the same thing.

While I’m here, I may as well say that the alternatives before Scots voters next year are not independence versus the status quo. The current devolution settlement is not on the table. If voters vote No (as I predict they will), then the Scotland Act 2012 will come into effect, giving the Scottish Parliament more tax and borrowing powers than it already has, along with further changes. The Act came about precisely because the 2007 SNP government was a minority one: the Unionist parties were able to outvote the SNP in Holyrood and set up the Calman Commission, whose proposals led to the Westminster-enacted Scotland Act 2012. A No vote is a vote for Devo-Plus-a-Bit. Anyone who thinks voting No will mean no change is mistaken: "no change" isn’t on offer.
 
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There are reports that there may be a poll published tomorrow which is more favourable to Yes. I don't yet know any other details - who the pollsters are, how many were polled, what was asked, etc. But apparently it will be reported in the Sun, the P&J, and the Courier.
 
OK, so here it is: "With a year to go until the independence referendum a sensational new poll has put the Yes campaign a point ahead, The Courier can reveal".

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/po...ence-poll-puts-yes-campaign-in-front-1.125982

It's a poll by Panelbase, of 908 people aged 18 and over in Scotland. The question asked was “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, and 44% said Yes, and 43% said No.

If memory serves me right, that's 2 points higher than the previous highpoint for Yes. It is the first time Yes has been ahead of No.

I can't remember what exact question YouGov asked, so I'll have a trawl.
 
According to the New Statesman (whom I credit with better fact-checking credentials than the Courier), the sample size was 1,043, rather than the figure the Courier had.

As the NS says, it's "entirely at odds with the most recent YouGov poll (carried out a week earlier), which put the No campaign ahead by a record 30 points (59-29). Until other polls are published showing the nationalist side ahead, it's wise to treat survey with caution".

Not much to add to that, really.
 
According to the New Statesman (whom I credit with better fact-checking credentials than the Courier), the sample size was 1,043, rather than the figure the Courier had.

As the NS says, it's "entirely at odds with the most recent YouGov poll (carried out a week earlier), which put the No campaign ahead by a record 30 points (59-29). Until other polls are published showing the nationalist side ahead, it's wise to treat survey with caution".

Not much to add to that, really.
There were a few polls similar to this in the AV vote (yes to AV i mean) . Always from smaller newer companies with little record of political polling and who weren't members of the British Polling Council i.e work to minimum publicly available and professionally accountable standards.
 
The YouGov poll was funded by Better Together and the Panelbase poll was funded by the SNP, so the true figures are probably somewhere inbetween.
 
There were a few polls similar to this in the AV vote. Always from smaller newer companies with little record of political polling and who weren't members of the British Polling Council i.e work to publicly available minimum professional standards.
John Curtice, writing in June, points out that Panelbase’s polls have so far been the odd one out psephologically in this campaign, proving to be much more optimistic for the Yes side than those of any other company.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/06/this-is-another-blog-post/
 
The YouGov poll was funded by Better Together and the Panelbase poll was funded by the SNP, so the true figures are probably somewhere inbetween.
The YouGov one was funded by Devo Plus.

I've got their briefing here. I'll see if I can attach it...

No, too large.
 
The YouGov one was funded by Devo Plus.

I've got their briefing here. I'll see if I can attach it...

No, too large.

Yeeaahhh... technically different but it's all the Unionist parties

The group is led by former Lib Dem MSP Jeremy Purvis and chaired by Reform Scotland chairman Ben Thomson. Members of the group include Conservative MSP Alex Fergusson, Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott and Labour MSP Duncan McNeil.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devo_Plus
 
Yeeaahhh... technically different but it's all the Unionist parties



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devo_Plus
Well, it's got members from all the Unionist parties. What they actually propose is slightly beefier devolution than the Scotland Act will deliver. In other words, their proposals are not on offer in the referendum.

http://www.devoplus.com/what-is-devo-plus/

spectrum.jpg


A No vote will deliver the 3rd option from the left (not option 2, as most people assume).
 
Just remembered Mori and/or UGov only poll people by landline afaik so they are going to get a squinted result straight off.
You want to back this claim up? Cos it looks like cobblers. YouGov use online polls and I've seen no evidence whatsoever that Mori (or any other well know telephone poll company) has any systematic bias for/against Scottish Independence (there's some differences in the UKIP results between telephone and online polling results but that's a very different issue).

Anthony Wells suggests a possible reason for the this result.
The results for the Panelbase/SNP survey are here. The referendum question itself is completely fair. However, it was not the first question asked. Typically polls always put voting intention questions (Parliamentary and referendum) questions right at the start in order to remove the risk that other questions in the survey could influence or skew voting intention results. Panelbase, for example, normally ask Holyrood VI, immediately followed by referendum VI. In the case of this poll the referendum voting intention question was asked at the end of the survey, after asking people if they thought Scotland could be “a successful, independent country” and whether people trusted the Scottish government or Westminster government more to take the right decisions for Scotland. Both questions had the potential to skew responses to the referendum question. We can’t know for certain, but given the contrast with Panelbase’s previous polls, my guess is that this is what has happened and Panelbase’s next normal survey will be back to a NO lead.
 
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Poll from weds:

Support for Scottish independence falls to lowest level this year

After being cheered by Monday's (unreliable) SNP/Panelbase poll on Scottish independence, which put the Yes campaign ahead for the first time since August 2011, Scottish nationalists have woken up to the grim news that support for separation has fallen to its lowest level this year.

A new TNS BRMB poll shows that just 25% would vote for independence compared to 47% who would vote against it. The survey is further evidence of why the SNP poll should be treated with scepticism. Those polled were first asked whether they thought Scotland could be "a successful, independent country" and whether they trusted the Scottish government or Westminster to take "the best decisions for Scotland". It's likely that both questions nudged people towards supporting independence in the final question.
 
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