geminisnake
There have been two referenda on measures of devolution.
The ‘79 referendum – the one subject to the Cunningham Amendment – was on devolution, and proposed an Assembly with far fewer powers than those of the Parliament proposed in the ’97 referendum.
In ’79, 51.6% voted Yes (on a turnout of 63.8%. Failing to clear the Cunningham hurdle, requiring 40% of Scotland's total registered electorate to vote Yes).
In ’97, two questions were asked; one gave the choice between “I agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament” and “I do not agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament”. The second was to agree or disagree that the Parliament should have tax-varying powers.
Both returned a majority for Yes: 74.3% and 63.5% respectively. The turnout was 60.4% (less than in ’79, but with far more decisive majority for devolution).
In neither of those referenda was independence an option. There has never been an independence referendum; all we have are opinion polls, going back to the rise of the SNP’s fortunes at the first Govan in 1973. In all those 40 years, there has never been a credible poll giving a majority for independence. The high water mark is around 40% in favour.
Polls can get it wrong. But if we have so many over so long suggesting that the majority of Scots don’t want independence, then we do have to pay attention.
YouGov don’t poll by landline.(
http://research.yougov.co.uk/ ) They Poll online. They draw demographically-representative samples from a panel of more 400,000 people in the UK, of which I am one. I was indeed asked about independence last week. They have never called my landline.
Ipsos MORI use a mix of methodologies, including face-to-face and internet surveys, and Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer-assisted_telephone_interviewing
Only one of the last two Holyrood elections was an SNP majority.
In 2007, the SNP formed a minority administration. They did not have an outright majority, but they were the largest party, with 47 seats. No other party wanted to go into coalition with them, and although in theory the other parties could have governed with an anti SNP coalition, they did not. So the SNP was able to form a government and govern on its own.
In 2011, the SNP did have an outright majority of seats; the first ever outright majority in the Scottish Parliament. Indeed the electoral system was designed so that there should not ever be an outright majority. In that respect, it failed.
However, support for the SNP is not the same as support for independence. There are many people who vote SNP who do not support independence, and there are many people who support independence who do not vote SNP (I am one of those).
You are correct that the Better Together campaign appears to have no grassroots organisation to speak of. That is also true here. But voters and activists are not the same thing.
While I’m here, I may as well say that the alternatives before Scots voters next year are not independence versus the status quo. The current devolution settlement is not on the table. If voters vote No (as I predict they will), then the Scotland Act 2012 will come into effect, giving the Scottish Parliament more tax and borrowing powers than it already has, along with further changes. The Act came about precisely because the 2007 SNP government was a minority one: the Unionist parties were able to outvote the SNP in Holyrood and set up the Calman Commission, whose proposals led to the Westminster-enacted Scotland Act 2012. A No vote is a vote for Devo-Plus-a-Bit. Anyone who thinks voting No will mean no change is mistaken: "no change" isn’t on offer.