Will you vote for independence?

[8ball]

I don't think that's right, actually. It seems that Salmond and the SNP are more liked than their main policy. The majority of the electorate just doesn't like independence. But they vote the SNP into power.

What is behind the majority of the electorate not liking independence?

 

[danny la rouge]

What is behind the majority of the electorate not liking independence?

They're Unionists.

 

[8ball]

They're Unionists.

+50 tautology points

 

[danny la rouge]

+50 tautology points

Seriously, it's the subject of many a book and magazine article, and soul-searching leader column in Radical Scotland (late periodical of this parish).

Mainly it's because of a sense of UK solidarity. Most Scots are Scots first. They may not identify as British primarily, but have friends & relations in England, and feel a vague loyalty about those connections. So they want devolution, but not separation.

Of course this is a problem for the Union, since asymmetric devolution is inherently unstable: English voters (outside London) don't have devolution.

 

[danny la rouge]

Furthermore, only people who haven't seen the opinion polls over the last few decades would think Scotland favours independence.

What annoyed a lot of people here about a recent episode of HIGNFY was that the presenter kept saying "the Scots" want this, "the Scots" want that, when actually what he should have said was "the SNP".

 

[butchersapron]

Or, 'the nazis'.

 

[8ball]

Furthermore, only people who haven't seen the opinion polls over the last few decades would think Scotland favours independence.

Yep, that would be me - just going by Urban and Scottish people I know.

I'd think it a shame if Scotland left the union, but I'm aware my reasons are irrational (feeling more British than Welsh due to family history and circumstances, and that the meaning of that would change - I kind of like being from a mongrel post-empire nation muddling it's way through in a messy 'post-certainty' universe).

 

[danny la rouge]

Or, 'the nazis'.

 

[geminisnake]

What is behind the majority of the electorate not liking independence?

Maybe they believe the BS and lies that has been shoved down their throats for over 40 years?

 

[teuchter]

Yes, the explanation must be that most people in Scotland are simply a bit stupid.

 

[butchersapron]

Maybe they believe the BS and lies that has been shoved down their throats for over 40 years?

Or have reached the conclusion based on their own experience of education, health and work and that of their family etc that they don't want it.

 

[danny la rouge]

Maybe they believe the BS and lies that has been shoved down their throats for over 40 years?

See, that's like Sas saying that Scots are incapable of running an independent country. You can't insult people into voting your way. You're saying they're deluded; they don't really want to keep the Union. If only the scales would fall from their eyes!

It reminds me of Jim Sillars, who - disgusted in '92 that Scotland had returned 49 Labour MPs on 39% of the vote, instead of voting SNP, on whom was only lavished 22% - called Scots "90 minute patriots". By this he meant, Scots were happy to be "patriotic" for the duration of a football match, but weren't interested in harnessing that for political ends. It did him no favours. People weren't won over by being called deluded. And in fact, it seems, they were quite happy to be 90 minute patriots; cheering on Scotland at football doesn't have to translate into a desire for independence.

 

[geminisnake]

See, that's like Sas saying that Scots are incapable of running an independent country. You can't insult people into voting your way. You're saying they're deluded; they don't really want to keep the Union. If only the scales would fall from their eyes!

No, it was a comment based on what people have told me over the years. If you say a thing enough some people will believe it. I've been hearing the North Sea oil is running out for 40 years now danny and strangely it hasn't. I'm not the only one hearing that but some people do believe it. I'm not insulting them, ime it's a statement of fact I'm afraid
Not everyone pays much attention to politics so they believe what they hear.

 

[danny la rouge]

Not everyone pays much attention to politics so they believe what they hear.

The electorate's pretty sophisticated. They know how to wield the constituency vote in Holyrood, for example.

In general, I'm not so sure people believe what they hear. It's more likely that they believe what backs up their existing opinions and disbelieve what doesn't.

 

[teuchter]

I've been hearing the North Sea oil is running out for 40 years now danny and strangely it hasn't.

You have determined that there is an infinite supply?

 

[DexterTCN]

You have determined that there is an infinite supply?

That's not nice, she's only giving her viewpoint.

Oil may come up but I've never met a Scot who wanted independence for motives of greed.

 

[danny la rouge]

You have determined that there is an infinite supply?

Of course it's finite. The latest oil industry estimate is that there's 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil left: http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2013/feb/northsea-oil.cfm?origin=EtOtherNews

According to Oil and Gas UK (2011) (http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/cmsfiles/modules/publications/pdfs/EC027.pdf), 40 billion barrels have been extracted since 1970. So there's more than half left, if those estimates are correct.

What should have been done, and never was, was that an oil fund be set up, as some other oil producing countries do (and as Shetland Council did). What the UK governments have actually done is set annual oil tax receipts against current expenditure. In effect, Thatcher used oil receipts at their most productive to bankroll her tax cuts.

 

[teuchter]

By my arithmetic 24/(24+40) is rather less than half.

Anyway, the point is that the oil *will* run out and it isn't a case of people believing false rumours when they say this. Whatever the arguments about how the revenue should be spent.

 

[danny la rouge]

By my arithmetic 24/(24+40) is rather less than half.

I think it was obvious that I meant half again rather than half of the original amount. Mr sarky.

 

[teuchter]

I think it was obvious that I meant half again rather than half of the original amount. Mr sarky.

I don't think it was but I will let you off this time.

 

[DexterTCN]

By my arithmetic 24/(24+40) is rather less than half.

Anyway, the point is that the oil *will* run out and it isn't a case of people believing false rumours when they say this. Whatever the arguments about how the revenue should be spent.

What's your point then? Just that a finite resource will not last forever?

 

[teuchter]

What's your point then? Just that a finite resource will not last forever?

It was in response to geminisnake implying that people were stupid for believing the oil is running out.

 

[DexterTCN]

It was in response to geminisnake implying that people were stupid for believing the oil is running out.

I don't think she said stupid...more like fed up of the lies being shoved down our throats.

 

[teuchter]

I don't think she said stupid...more like fed up of the lies being shoved down our throats.

That the oil is running out is not a lie.

 

[CharlieChaplin]

"Yes" is winning in this poll.

I hope they don't go.

 

[butchersapron]

May be of interest: Scottish Nationalists spooked by the spooks

A former deputy leader of the Scottish National Party has called on the spooks to stay out of the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future.
Margo MacDonald, now an independent MSP, has argued that she believes MI5 agents are already operating undercover within the SNP as part of the security service’s remit to protect the UK “against threats to national security”.

In 2007 Scotland on Sunday revealed that classified government documents showed that secret service and special branch agents and officers infiltrated the SNP in the 1950s in an attempt to undermine efforts and support for independence.

Many nationalists believe the same occurred in the 1970s when Scotland’s oil boom raised fears in the heart of Whitehall that it could revive calls and support for independence.

 

[danny la rouge]

May be of interest: Scottish Nationalists spooked by the spooks

If there's no spooks active in the pro independence movement now, I'd be amazed. This is the British state we're talking about.

 

[DexterTCN]

If there's no spooks active in the pro independence movement now, I'd be amazed. This is the British state we're talking about.

If we get independence...we can hang them.

 

[danny la rouge]

If we get independence...we can hang them.

I hope Kenny MacAskill's one, then.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I don't usually bother with Question Time, but tonights is an independence special from Edinburgh, with an audience of 16 and 17 year-olds. On the panel, George Galloway and ta-da Nigel Farage. Could be a lively one...