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Will you vote for independence?

Scottish independence?

  • Yes please

    Votes: 99 56.6%

  • No thanks

    Votes: 57 32.6%

  • Dont know yet

    Votes: 17 9.7%
  • Total voters
    175
butchersapron said:
Fuck the bias of pollsters, the potential contact with people who felt they were abandoned - that's a result.
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I think that is right. As I said, I have never seen so many people discuss socialism and politics before. I think that kind of thing is fantastic. The higher the yes vote the better, so these kinds of things stay on the agenda, a yes victory would be phenomenal.

EDIT: I was meaning the bias of the press and the BBC especially in that post.
 
DairyQueen said:
I have tried explaining to you why the a higher voter turnout would make things harder to predict. Also, the point about the YouGov panel missing segments of the population is not confined to non-voters.
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Well I'm sorry but it's not just BA I don't understand a lot of your criticism either. For instance you say
DairyQueen said:
The rest of it. The polling companies are rarely wrong in UK elections, largely because most elections are decided in a few swing seats.
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which I just can't make sense of. Why would having swing seats mean that the polling is more accurate?

DairyQueen said:
They were poor at predicting the proportion of votes which is what we are discussing, by the way, for the Scottish Parliament elections.
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Well again I'm sorry but this is just factually wrong.

For the constituency vote, their polling was within the MOE
Date SNP Lab Con LD
Result 45 32 14 8
4/5/11 42 35 11 8
29/4/14 42 34 12 7
21/4/14 45 32 10 8

For the regional vote the error was a bit larger but it got the overall result right
Date SNP Lab Con LD Grn
Result 44 26 13 5 4
4/5/11 35 32 13 7 6
29/4/14 35 25 16 9 8
21/4/14 39 29 12 7 7

EDIT If you go by the pdf BA posted then the figures YG quote are 42/33/13/8 and 41/28/14/6 so within the MOE for both the constituency and regional votes. (I presume are averaged polling data but I can't see where they tell you exactly how these figures are obtained).

Probably also worth putting up the figures for the AV referendum as that might be the most comparable issue.

YouGov ICM ComRes Angus Reid Result
Yes 38 32 34 39 32
No 62 68 66 61 68
Average error 6 0 2 7
 
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It's of note that in the allegedly intrinsically socialist Scotland, arguments for independence are being made along the lines of "we can keep all the oil money for ourselves instead of sharing it with the rest of the UK".
 
redsquirrel said:
Well I'm sorry but it's not just BA I don't understand a lot of your criticism either. For instance you say
which I just can't make sense of. Why would having swing seats mean that the polling is more accurate?
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The point about turnout is not a criticism. If the voting demographics change radically from one election to the next there will be more uncertainty. I am sorry if you don't understand why, I cannot be bothered getting into another argument over it. I only criticised YouGov, I don't like their panel. Again, if you don't understand what their panel is and how it is used, I really don't wish to discuss any more.

EDIT: The point about swing seats is more to do with the voting system. Predicting seats is very easy, and it is clear that the proportion of the vote is also relatively straightforward too. I imagine there will be some errors with the UKIP vote in GE2015.

Well again I'm sorry but this is just factually wrong.
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The information you have posted indicate large swings to the SNP in the regional vote. That's not really a criticism. It just shows the regional vote was hard to predict.
 
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teuchter said:
It's of note that in the allegedly intrinsically socialist Scotland, arguments for independence are being made along the lines of "we can keep all the oil money for ourselves instead of sharing it with the rest of the UK".
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But we are not 'sharing' it with the rest of the UK. It is being appropriated by the large financial services to underwrite their high risk investments, and pay for large-scale military projects. It's far more curious how Labour talk about working-class solidarity with a straight face long after they have committed themselves to shaft the poor 'for the national interest'.
 
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DairyQueen said:
But we are not 'sharing' it with the rest of the UK. It is being appropriated ... and pay for large-scale military projects.
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Are not these large-scale military projects a form of social welfare? Otherwise all those soldiers, shipbuilders, tradesmen, etc, would be looking for other work. Colour me cynical but is it not the case that Glasgow, Barrow, etc wouldn't be building the new aircraft carriers if it hadn't helped buy votes for Labour?
 
DairyQueen said:
If that's true, it would be the most inefficient social welfare program ever devised, so much so it would hardly counts as 'sharing' wealth.
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Most of it has to go into the hands of the plutocrats, of course, but are they really more inefficient than the so-called job-finder agencies that are milking the DSS?
 
marty21 said:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814000389

not sure if this has been posted, it is an article about the debate, one of the authors - Andy is a very old friend of mine - have skimmed it and it seems to cover a lot of ground.

Deciding whose future? Challenges and opportunities of the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 for Scotland and Beyond (Joanne Sharp, Andy Cumbers, Joe Painter and Nichola Wood, Volume 41, July 2014, pp. 32-42).
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FFS marty21 he's an oil economist as I remember, get him to write a paper on the arguments for an Indy Scotland nationalising the oil industry under democratic workers control and management.
 
DairyQueen said:
EDIT: The point about swing seats is more to do with the voting system. Predicting seats is very easy, and it is clear that the proportion of the vote is also relatively straightforward too. I imagine there will be some errors with the UKIP vote in GE2015.
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But this is completely backwards. Polling companies predict the popular vote, which they then try and use to predict seats, why would having swing seats or a non-FPTP voting system affect the accuracy of opinion polling?

DairyQueen said:
The information you have posted indicate large swings to the SNP in the regional vote. That's not really a criticism. It just shows the regional vote was hard to predict.
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Large swings from what?
 
Fedayn said:
Why can't it?
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Because Scotland will be an independent country, and unless the independent Scotland picks up the bill (and thus the ships), work will be transferred to an English shipyard. Probably one in which the Tory vote needs shoring up.
 
DotCommunist said:
I see the Aussie PM has waded in on the 'No' side. All very well for him to say, Australias been independent for ages
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Voting Yes would be "bad for freedom", he says. In which case, I assume he will be rejoining the UK in the interests of freedom, and touring the world urging everyone else to do likewise, starting, one assumes, with the US.
 
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