Turkey, ISIS, Kurds and Syria

[teqniq]

The US isn't ready to make hard choices regarding Turkey, it will do everything it can to kick that shit-filled can as far down the road as possible. There's no doubt what the emotional, gut reaction is, or what the principled reaction is, and it's the one the US wants to make - it's difficult to get over to people how appalled the US 'deep state' is by how Turkey has behaved throughout the last 7 years (and more), and how appalled they are by Turkey's willingness to tell the US to fuck off,and mean it, which is a particularly unwelcome development.

The US is genuinely in a bind - it would like nothing better than to turf Turkey out of the club and face them off over Kurdistan (the principle, and the reality on the ground that it's people have been fighting with for years), but they are faced with the unpleasant reality that if they do Turkey will walk out of NATO and into the Russian camp (and take with it the F-35 production line and repair centre - thereby writing off a $1.5 trillion fighter program that is meant to equip NATO air forces for the next 50 years...). The US knows that Vlad the Invader will offer literally anything to get Turkey out of NATO and close off the Eastern Med to the US - that, unfortunately, is the situation the US finds itself in, and it simply isn't in a position to give Turkey any kind of ultimatum involving an 'or else's, because Turkey (or perhaps more correctly, Erdogan) will prefer the 'or else'.

Just coming back to this, thanks for a very informative post. I was just wondering what were they thinking of when they decided to put the F35 production line and repair centre in Turkey? Is it a combination of strategic location and cheaper labour costs? Because right now that looks to me like a very stupid decision.

 

[kebabking]

Just coming back to this, thanks for a very informative post. I was just wondering what were they thinking of when they decided to put the F35 production line and repair centre in Turkey? Is it a combination of strategic location and cheaper labour costs? Because right now that looks to me like a very stupid decision.

it started to be mooted during that period post '91 when Turkey was looking to join the EU, it was all very secular and European focused, while at the same time there were siren voices in Turkey calling for a 'Turkic crescent' into Central Asia and a move away from the kowtowing to the Europeans. post 2003 it became ever more obvious that Turkey wasn't going to get into the EU and that it was chaffing against US influence over Iraq - the decision to put a production line was part of a process of trying to 'anchor' Turkey into the west. it appears that what may of happened is that its anchored the west to Turkey...

one of the problems we face when Europe (as in, people in western Europe) deals with Turkey is that we see Turkey as a bit of a shithole with dodgy politics who would nonetheless like to be like us, but as far as the Turks are concerned they have the largest and most developed economy in western and central Asia, they have the most capable and developed military in western and central Asia, an aerospace industry as l;arge and as developed as, say, Germanys', and they have a very significant cultural/diplomatic/political influence through the whole of central Asia from the Chinese border westwards - they, perhaps with good reason, do not think that they should be applying and repeatedly being told 'not yet' to anything.

i don't think any of this has been about cost per se - one of the ways the F-35 programme has been designed is that the more aircraft that each customer buys, the bigger the slice of the production/post-production support pie they get, and Turkey may end up being one of the largest non-US purchasers of the F-35. there are other production lines, one in the US and one in Denmark, and theres nothing that the various Turkish contractors and suppliers are producing that couldn't be produced in more reliable places, but Turkey is completely imbedded in the programme now, they own and are flying a number of aircraft (6?), they have its secrets, and what what its worth to old Vlad to be able to invalidate 20+ years of huge amounts of western effort and treasure doesn't bear thinking about.

it may be one of those clever, far-sighted ideas that looks like catastrophic idiocy when it might otherwise have born great fruit...

 

[butchersapron]

If you are now in the YPG - as al britani or whatever - you are not an anti-ISIS fighter any more. You are now a PKK fighter.

 

[sunny jim]

Hey BA It's really simple. You've been a clueless dimwit since this jihadist insurrection against the Syrian government started. The idea that *anyone* fighting against *any* present government is a good guy has been shown to be absolute bollocks. Face It, the FSA are all affiliated with Al Qaeda. They're not, and never have been, a progressive revolution. Right now they're attacking and killing actual freedom fighters. The YPG are fighting for direct democracy, women's liberation and a secular and more egalitarian society. The FSA have, since the beginning, been fighting for Salafism, the most bigoted and reactionary part of Islam. If you call yourself a progressive, what the fuck are you doing supporting clerical fascists? Seriously, it's about time you actually got a grip.

 

[teqniq]

sunny jim It's not really simple, anything but. But seeing as how you seem to think that the original peaceful protests are/were 'jihadist insurrection' I really can't be arsed with attempting to counter your preconceptions. The evidence is already there anyway, all over threads on this board and the net in general.

Anyway...

Fall of Afrin: Turkey’s Vietnam or Washington’s nightmare?

 

[sunny jim]

It is really simple - the whole uprising was a Salafist inspired one. A couple of peaceful demonstrations 7 years are completely irrelevant now - and have been for 7 years. Now your hero's are attacking and killing actual freedom fighters. That's because of a clash of ideologies - on the YPG side it's a progressive ideology encompassing women's liberation and a secular and a socialist society. On the FSA side, its a Salafist ideology, backed by the most brutal regimes in the world Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It's not rocket science.

 

[teqniq]

They are not my heroes, there are obviously jihadist extremists involved, you haven't actually read the last few posts in this thread have you?. The whole situation there is way more complicated than anyone here can really comprehend, and you are a fool.

 

[sunny jim]

I can see your problem though - for 7 years you've backed the worst of humanity. Now that is completely evident. Sometimes it's hard to admit you've had it all arse about tit for that long.

 

[LDC]

It is really simple.

Have you spent any time in Syria, or do you know anyone sensible that has? Even the dynamics within the YPG and PYD etc. are not as simple or clear as you make out.

 

[sunny jim]

There's not just jihadist extremists involved - on the FSA side there's *only* jihadist extremists involved.

 

[sunny jim]

Have you spent any time in Syria, or do you know anyone sensible that has?

I know Anna Campbell RIP.

 

[sunny jim]

And others in the International Freedom Brigade.

 

[teqniq]

I've just recalled, you're that pathetic troll from somewhere in London. 0/10

 

[sunny jim]

Whatever mate, you've been supporting Al Qaeda for 7 years - and I don't think you realise it.

 

[sunny jim]

I don't live in London either.

 

[teqniq]

*yawn*

 

[sunny jim]

Yawn??? Is that all you've got? People from the International Freedom Brigade are getting murdered by Salafist FSA cunts - who you've supported all along - and all you have to say is "yawn". Well, fuck you then, you utter piece of shit.

 

[teqniq]

If you care to read back a bit you will see that I have been broadly in support of the Kurds pretty much all the time, but I also predicted ages ago that they were likely to be hung out to dry by the US at some point. I take absolutely no pleasure in recent events. Silly me though, reading back a bit before spouting bullshit is evidently beyond you.

 

[sunny jim]

It's ridiculous to support the YPG and the FSA. You have to choose one or the other. To put it bluntly, you can't support clerical fascists and people fighting against clerical fascism.

 

[butchersapron]

I guess the ypg/PKK are proudly allying with clerical fascists in the sdf then. No, this warmed up stalinism was never any use in this, not 7 years ago when you were more open about your assadism/putinism (see his pathetic interventions in the Ukraine thread) and not now when people are dying for the PKK not in any fight against ISIS or Jihadists.

That is no longer the territory in which these people are going to another country to fight. Now it's more like the third World fetishism and saviour complex of those mad German's who made up a steady stream of people going into the mountains in the 80s to kill people that apo disproved of or wanted gone.

Of course, its no surprise that he reappears now that the pkk/ypg is becoming increasingly open about its links to and reliance on the regime and that they are starting for the first time to be asked questions from lefties about both their actions and their wider project.

Add for the lies about the revolution being jihadi from the start, not worth responding to. Everyone in this thread knows that they're lies. Politically motivated lies.

 

[sunny jim]

The PKK/YPG are fighting the jihadist FSA as we speak in Afrin. One side are fighting for direct democracy, women's liberation and a secular and socialist society, while the other (who you've supported for 7 years) are fighting for Salafism. Just admit it Butchers, you've had the whole thing arse about tit from the beginning.

 

[butchersapron]

...and why do these half-wits always insist on using the term clerical-fascism? Do they think it offers an element of theoretical rigour or sophistication to their rantings? All it does it highlight that they don't know what the terms means or what requited to make an accurate use of the concept - and it certainly isn't something as banal and crude or religious people being nasty and authoritarian. That stuff in laurie penny level of crappy rhetorical trick. It also serves to highlight that their politics now only revolve around a stunted understanding of the world as viewed from the lens of fascism vc anti-fascism. Everything else political has been evacuated in favour of this simplistic binary.

 

[butchersapron]

The PKK/YPG are fighting the jihadist FSA as we speak in Afrin. One side are fighting for direct democracy, women's liberation and a secular and socialist society, while the other (who you've supported for 7 years) are fighting for Salafism. Just admit it Butchers, you've had the whole thing arse about tit from the beginning.

Of course you won't go near dealing with the YPG being brothers in arms with FSA elements in the SDF will you? Because that would undermine your whole simplistic worldview.

 

[sunny jim]

The FSA are fighting against the YPG in Afrin right now . That's not because of a turf war, It's because of a huge difference in their ideologies - one side is left wing and the other is the most bigoted and reactionary part of Islam. You can play make believe if you want, but those are the facts.

 

[butchersapron]

And of course the uncritical stalinist cheerleading based on aggressive repetition of what is at heart a vilely racist narrative(sunnis and esp sunni arabs are all at heart secret jihadis) is one element that is now leading to the ypg/pkk rapidly running out of friends and options as it allowed a pro-kurdish (all kurds are assumed to be apo worshippers in this model - mirroring the arabs - jihadi one but positively this time) sectarian ramping up of existing but not irresolvable differences between opposition (FSA) and semi-opposition groups (ypg/pkk). Like every other time the pkk got played by the bigger boys and were forced into working to fit their agenda. Assad and the rest must be laughing up their sleeves at this nonsense.

 

[butchersapron]

The FSA are fighting against the YPG in Afrin right now . That's not because of a turf war, It's because of a huge difference in their ideologies - one side is left wing and the other is the most bigoted and reactionary part of Islam. You can play make believe if you want, but those are the facts.

I don't know how you dare even mention the word facts after quite deliberately lying about the origins of the revolution and its early characteristics. Pointless debate with a pointless dishonest timewaster.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hey BA It's really simple. You've been a clueless dimwit since this jihadist insurrection against the Syrian government started. The idea that *anyone* fighting against *any* present government is a good guy has been shown to be absolute bollocks. Face It, the FSA are all affiliated with Al Qaeda. They're not, and never have been, a progressive revolution. Right now they're attacking and killing actual freedom fighters. The YPG are fighting for direct democracy, women's liberation and a secular and more egalitarian society. The FSA have, since the beginning, been fighting for Salafism, the most bigoted and reactionary part of Islam. If you call yourself a progressive, what the fuck are you doing supporting clerical fascists? Seriously, it's about time you actually got a grip.

four years away... not missed tbh

 

[teqniq]

No and broken record territory to boot.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't live in London either.

lucky auld london

 

[sihhi]

And of course the uncritical stalinist cheerleading based on aggressive repetition of what is at heart a vilely racist narrative(sunnis and esp sunni arabs are all at heart secret jihadis) is one element that is now leading to the ypg/pkk rapidly running out of friends and options as it allowed a pro-kurdish (all kurds are assumed to be apo worshippers in this model - mirroring the arabs - jihadi one but positively this time) sectarian ramping up of existing but not irresolvable differences between opposition (FSA) and semi-opposition groups (ypg/pkk). Like every other time the pkk got played by the bigger boys and were forced into working to fit their agenda. Assad and the rest must be laughing up their sleeves at this nonsense.

No one seriously believes all Sunnis Arabs are jihadis, no one believes that all Kurds are pro-PKK.
Most people are aware that Sunnis want something neither Assad nor jihadis offer

The long-term PKK plan is still there - the alliances come and go.

This is 2012 pro-Assad.

This was around 2014 iirc - let the FSA's quite Islamist liwa at-tawhiid do the announcements.

This is now back to Assad.

But the FSA groups are as willing to chop and change its alliances as the YPG.