Tunisia - working class revolt

[Treacle Toes]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Peter, stop this.

 

[butchersapron]

The Amy vs (elite) Police scenario seems to be developing - see the Tunisia Scenario blog.

I wrote in the last page that, despite what I would have assumed, the Army is LOVED by the average Tunisian and the police are generally hated and feared. Today showed why.

In this video he's basically saying "we are not the police, we do not shoot our own people like the police, we are the army, we need your help but we will defend you" the people cheered and then the army drove away.

The only police that are still working are the elite, political police. They shoot people for the most minor infractions. Today my American friend saw some Tunisians stomping on a picture of the former president and cheering. All of a sudden police came up and began indiscriminately shooting into the crowd. He didn't see anyone die but still.

The army sent young boys around to distribute leaflets today. They said if you want to defend your neighborhood put a white rag around your arm and grab any weapon you can. The people are clearly for the army at this point.

As I write there are mobs of civilians (including, foolishly and implausibly, myself) wearing white armbands on every corner. Someone, almost definitely the former special police/secret service, has been driving around shooting at these groups of people and getting in gunfights with the army.

 

[camouflage]

The Amy vs (elite) Police scenario seems to be developing - see the Tunisia Scenario blog.

OMG, this is how civil wars begin

I'd far rather a swift military coupe than a civil war.

Hoping for the best for my Tunisian colleagues right now that didn't turn up to work last week.

 

[elbows]

Well they've nicked former head of presidential security force Ali Seriati so maybe this is the beginning of the end for the Ben Ali loyalists.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12202283

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I heard Tunisians interviewed yesterday and they all seem to feel far safer with the army around than the police.

Why would this be the start of a civil war? There's only one winner out of army vs police, surely.

 

[elbows]

Its not even the entire police force by the sounds of it, just some of the special ones.

Meanwhile it sounds like at least one Trabelsi has been killed and they have made quite a mess of his living room too:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-filipino/world/01/16/11/tunisia-close-relative-ben-ali-slain

TUNIS - Imed Trabelsi, nephew of the powerful wife of ousted Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, died of a knife wound in the capital's military hospital, a staff member told Agence France-Presse Saturday.

Trabelsi, the first confirmed victim in the former president's immediate entourage, died on Friday, said the source who asked not to be named.

"Leila's little darling was knifed in the last few days and admitted to emergency," the medic said laconically, referring to Ben Ali's wife.

It was not immediately clear how Trabelsi had been wounded, but reports circulating in Tunis spoke of a settling of accounts by one of his former colleagues.

In May he had been "elected" mayor of the commune of La Goulette north of Tunis, where he installed himself as supremo well before the vote was held.

 

[Peter Dow]

The ousting of a dictator is always a positive event, except from the perspective of the nieghbouring dictator who fears he might be the next to go the same way.

Part one of the Tunisian revolution is positive so far but part two, if it is a counter-revolution, especially if it is organised by a neighbouring dictator such as Gaddafi could be negative, admittedly.

Muammar Gaddafi condemns Tunisia uprising

NATO countries (that's us in Britain, America, European countries etc) could shape the Tunisian outcome best by frustrating Gaddafi's attempts to wreck any transition to a Tunisian democracy.

Gaddafi is going to be a problem so now would be an excellent time to block all Libyan-state controlled satellite TV transmissions.

To knock out Gaddafi-TV we need to be aware that Libyan state TV could also be carried on satellites belonging to many other Arab dictatorship-type countries.

We need to remember that the enemy pro-Jihadi-terror "Al Zawraa" TV, inciting "the resistance" in Iraq was broadcast via Nilesat for a time.





Nilesat is the Egyptian dictator's Mubarak's state satellite service. The fact that the US gives so much aid to Egypt some of which Mubarak uses against the US should lead to questions about how US money is being spent.

How much would it cost to aid Egypt the best way possible and hire an assassin to take out Mubarak? Certainly much less than the £2 billion a year Egypt reportedly gets from the US in aid money.

I would anticipate Mubarak assisting Gaddafi to wreck Tunisian democracy by supporting Gaddafi's anti-Tunisian-revolution-and-democratic-reform propaganda on Nilesat.

My own view is that none of those Arab-Muslim dictatorships should be allowed satellite TV which they use to incite war against the west and so taking out hostile satellites, temporarily or permanently is one easy way to make a big difference.

One other danger would be if Gaddafi sends Libyan covert forces to sabotage and to destabilise Tunisia so as to give Gaddafi a pretext to invade Tunisia with Libyan forces to "restore order".

NATO should come to the rescue of a free Tunisia if Gaddafi tries anything like that.

Gaddafi was also reported on BBC TV today denouncing developments in Tunisia so I think shutting Gaddafi up would be a good move especially at this time.

The US military particularly has the ability to jam or take out satellite TV and I think it is about time to use such technology to give freedom and democracy an edge in the Tunisian revolution.

 

[Yossarian]

Peter Dow is mentally ill and obsessed with Condoleezza Rice.

He fantasizes about a world where Condoleezza Rice runs things and disrupts threads about current events with images and videos he has made about his fantasy.

If you don't like his posts, put him on ignore, but whatever you do, don't let him know that Condoleezza Rice is fucking David Cameron.

 

[elbows]

Peter our governments often like strongmen to rule these countries, we are not likely to start knocking out people who are largely 'on-side'. If we didnt knock out Gaddafi at a time when relations were most strained, we arent likely to do it now. Strong action with massive ramifications, based on mere speculation about what Gaddafi could do, is not sensible. If they are worried about negative influence on events in Tunisia coming from Gaddafi, I assume the initial procedure is to make contact with the government of Libya and tell them in no uncertain terms where the red lines are. If he crosses those lines, then you think of what else you may need to do to counter Libya.

I know nothing of the detail of Gaddafi's interests in Tunisia and how much he cares about which faction comes out on top. Clearly he is going to be worried about such events in general, as he fears the same fate, but this is largely an issue of domestic politics for him. Shoring up his own position may be a harder prospect if he messes around in Tunisia, not an easier one, so we will just have to wait and see where his priorities lie. Given the effort his regime have spent in 'coming in from the cold' in terms of relations with the western powers in recent years, I doubt he will be too reckless but who knows, he isnt the most predictable leader in the world thats for sure.

 

[elbows]

Well they've nicked former head of presidential security force Ali Seriati so maybe this is the beginning of the end for the Ben Ali loyalists.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12202283

Following on from that I see the present news is about gun-battles around the presidential palace, between army and the aforementioned security services it seems, though as usual detail is very sparse. Without knowing the numbers involved or all of the powerful actors involved, I guess its hard for us to predict much right now. Could be the end game or could be some way off that yet.

 

[butchersapron]

Algerians burning themselves alive now (sort of fitting we're coming up the anniversary of Jan Palach) - other suicide attempts - and there's footage which is supposed to be of clashes in Libya doing the rounds now as well...Yemenis trying to kick things off there...

 

[elbows]

Well if anyone ever geeked out on government reports of the past and wondered why a superpower like the USA paid such keen attention to population demographics in certain regions, recent events provide ample explanation.

Some of the early predictions for what the financial crisis, commodity price rises etc of a few years back would do around the globe may have seemed a tad hysterical to some. But with a more realistic timescale in mind, it does seem that things may well be evolving in that predicted direction.

I think the rich and powerful would do better for themselves in the long run if they could keep their greed in check much more than is evident today, and shoulder far more of the burden. I will be fascinated how far leaders go in attempts to placate their populations, and with the Tories pushing ahead with their stuff at full steam in the UK it looks like we will get to join in as this struggle & balancing act unfolds, at least to a certain extent

 

[goldenecitrone]

A bit like 1989. Wonder how far it will get.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Apparently they left the country with 1 1/2 ton of gold from the bank of tunisia.
source (in French sorry)
So for those that worried it's OK, they're not destitute.

 

[JimW]

I realise it's a serious juncture, but couldn't help smiling at reports a bunch of Swedes in the country on a wild boar hunt got beaten up

 

[Peter Dow]

Peter our governments often like strongmen to rule these countries, we are not likely to start knocking out people who are largely 'on-side'. If we didnt knock out Gaddafi at a time when relations were most strained, we arent likely to do it now.

"our"? "we"? Speak for yourself and what your Queen's rotten government wants and is likely to do.

I didn't agree with giving Gaddafi back his Lockerbie bomber and I don't agree with giving Gaddafi a free hand to interfere in Tunisia either.

I am not on the Queen's, nor Gaddafi's side. I am on the side of the Tunisian people who have sent their dictator packing.

Strong action with massive ramifications,

Knocking out a dictator's state TV by jamming or disabling satellites is stronger than diplomacy for sure but it is a modest action with a impact against the regime while having low risks for those who attack the satellites. It is a win win strategy.

based on mere speculation about what Gaddafi could do, is not sensible. If they are worried about negative influence on events in Tunisia coming from Gaddafi, I assume the initial procedure is to make contact with the government of Libya and tell them in no uncertain terms where the red lines are. If he crosses those lines, then you think of what else you may need to do to counter Libya.

I know nothing of the detail of Gaddafi's interests in Tunisia and how much he cares about which faction comes out on top. Clearly he is going to be worried about such events in general, as he fears the same fate, but this is largely an issue of domestic politics for him. Shoring up his own position may be a harder prospect if he messes around in Tunisia, not an easier one, so we will just have to wait and see where his priorities lie. Given the effort his regime have spent in 'coming in from the cold' in terms of relations with the western powers in recent years, I doubt he will be too reckless but who knows, he isnt the most predictable leader in the world thats for sure.

So you didn't actually follow this link then?
Muammar Gaddafi condemns Tunisia uprising
Does bigger and bolder help?

If we can see reports of what Gaddafi is saying on Libyan TV in the Guardian and on the BBC you can be sure that it is being heard in Tunisia too.

Gaddafi, who has been Libyan leader since 1969, urged Tunisia to adopt Libyan model of government.

That sounds very much like an intention to mess around in Tunisia.

The people's interests are to support the emergence of democratic African and Arab people-power governments which, unlike Saddam, Mubarak, Gaddafi and the rest, don't feel a need to support terrorists elsewhere in the world including terrorists who bomb Britain, America and our allies with a "blame-the-west-for-our-problems" strategy to shore up their domestic positions.

I, Condoleezza Rice and many others understand this.

You, the Queen and her oil deal lackeys do not understand this.

 

[where to]

this is worth a read. on Ben Ali's downfall last Friday:
http://translate.google.com/transla...r/&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=ISO-8859-1

yesterday's man, but can shed light on the mood at the top level of the army etc.

 

[elbows]

"our"? "we"? Speak for yourself and what your Queen's rotten government wants and is likely to do.

I didn't agree with giving Gaddafi back his Lockerbie bomber and I don't agree with giving Gaddafi a free hand to interfere in Tunisia either.

I am not on the Queen's, nor Gaddafi's side. I am on the side of the Tunisian people who have sent their dictator packing.

I, Condoleezza Rice and many others understand this.

You, the Queen and her oil deal lackeys do not understand this.

You do not have the capability to take out satellites, so who are you calling on to implement your desired policy regarding the dictators of Libya and Egypt? I was talking about the likely attitudes of Western powers towards Gaddafi at this time, not what I personally believe should be done.

Condoleezza Rice is a friend of corporations and big oil, you are a confused man, but thats clearly not news round these parts.

 

[Peter Dow]

You do not have the capability to take out satellites, so who are you calling on to implement your desired policy regarding the dictators of Libya and Egypt?

NATO, the US, the West, this would be "us" as far as I am concerned if the West was doing the right thing.

I was talking about the likely attitudes of Western powers towards Gaddafi at this time, not what I personally believe should be done.

Yet you seem more eager to identify yourself with a Western power, right or wrong, by the indiscriminate use of such terms as "we" and "our".

The people's interests are to support the emergence of democratic African and Arab people-power governments which, unlike Saddam, Mubarak, Gaddafi and the rest, don't feel a need to support terrorists elsewhere in the world including terrorists who bomb Britain, America and our allies with a "blame-the-west-for-our-problems" strategy to shore up their domestic positions.

I, Condoleezza Rice and many others understand this.

Condoleezza Rice is a friend of corporations and big oil

Condoleezza Rice is a good friend to have. This is why the people need her as our friend. Of course, the corporations will befriend her as well and with good reason.

It is an act of friendship to corporations including oil corporations to advise them that is not in their long term interests to make short-sighted deals with dictators.

Someone should have told that to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company when in 1951 the Iranian government planned to nationalise the company, the company took some bad advice and asked for intervention by the USA/UK. When Conservatives President Eisenhower and Prime Minister Churchill came to power they did intervene in favour of establishing a dictatorship of the Shah in 1953 in a CIA-MI6 inspired coup, named "Operation Ajax".

1953 Iranian coup d'état

It didn't work out for Anglo-Iranian and they lost everything in the Islamic revolution years later. Bad advice you see.

A good friend of big oil like Condoleezza Rice would have said to Anglo-Iranian - "it is in your own long term interests to accept that the Iranians have the national right to nationalise assets on their land, though you can claim compensation, certainly do not accept advice to go along with this coup. Instead oppose any such coup and if there is no coup, or when the coup is reversed in favour of the people, you can continue business with the Iranians as sub-contractors and you can recover your investments and make profits easily enough."

 

[dylans]

You're an idiot. First you loudly (and correctly) state that the government doesn't speak for "us" (though your claim that the Queen has any executive power in a Parliamentary democracy is a bit bizarre)

our"? "we"? Speak for yourself and what your Queen's rotten government wants and is likely to do.

Then in the next breath. You claim NATO, the US government and the oil corporations do

NATO, the US, the West, this would be "us" as far as I am concerned if the West was doing the right thing.

You attack other posters for supposedly identifying their interests with the "West" (even though have done nothing of the sort)

You seem more eager to identify yourself with a Western power, right or wrong, by the indiscriminate use of such terms as "we" and "our"

and then do exactly this yourself

Condoleezza Rice is a good friend to have. This is why the people need her as our friend.

This is utterly bizarre. Rice was no friend of the Tunisian people. The US government allies itself with the regimes in these countries on the condition they allow corporate rape of their economies. Rice herself bears responsibility for the invasion of Iraq and the death of up to a million Iraqis.

You say that the US government supports democratic movements in North Africa

The people's interests are to support the emergence of democratic African and Arab people-power governments which, unlike Saddam, Mubarak, Gaddafi and the rest, don't feel a need to support terrorists elsewhere in the world including terrorists who bomb Britain, America and our allies with a "blame-the-west-for-our-problems" strategy to shore up their domestic positions.

I, Condoleezza Rice and many others understand this.

But then fail to explain why the US has supported the regimes in Tunisia and Egypt for decades. Take the case of Egypt

Aid is central to Washington's relationship with Cairo. The US has provided Egypt with $1.3 billion a year in military aid since 1979, and an average of $815 a year in economic assistance. All told, Egypt has received over $50 billion in US largesse since 1975. http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0412/p07s01-wome.html

50 billion to shore up Mubarak!. Please explain how this indicates support for democratic movements in Egypt? No. The West has only one interest in the region. Strong pro western dictatorships that guarantee stability.The word democracy is thrown around as long as democracy produces governments that are suitable to Western interests. God help them if they (as Algeria did in the 90s) vote for governments not to the West's liking. In the 1990s Algeria held elections which Islamists won. What was the response? The elections were cancelled and 150.000 people died. What was the response of the US government to this disgrace? They supported the Algerian government in cancelling the election and stood silently as they crushed the democratically elected opposition and drowned the country in blood.

You are indeed a confused man and I think your dewy eyed love affair with Rice is a little one sided. Finally I hate to tell you this but the Bush regime has gone and she is no longer in power

 

[butchersapron]

Just a bit of info - there's a statement doing the rounds from The Tunisian Workers' Communist Party. They're not of the tradition of other the other 'worker-communist' groups such as the parties in Iran and Iraq - they're a straight up Hoxhaite group.

There's a collection of left-wing commentary on the events here - usual caveats apply when reading this stuff.

Rumours of Egyptians now burning themselves, supposedly from the paper El-Masry El-Youm - nothing in their english edition...any arabic readers can confirm, the breaking news section is supposed to have it.

 

[butchersapron]

Something from Reuters on the bloke who set himself on fire outside the Egyptian Parliament.

 

[Lemon Eddy]

You're an idiot. First you loudly (and correctly) state that the government doesn't speak for "us" (though your claim that the Queen has any executive power in a Parliamentary democracy is a bit bizarre)

I'm going to try and save you a bit of time here. There's absolutely no point arguing or debating with Peter. The guy has serious problems.

 

[butchersapron]

Agree with the above, please ignore him.

Today, protesters out against the proposed stitch up of a new coalition govt, the old ruling class in a new guise. State forces (not sure who exactly at this point) dispersing them, risking setting it all off again - very important day.

 

[butchersapron]

Pretty much all of the North African and Arab state today rest on the same social foundations - an extremely young population, often university educated, previously reliant on state employment of one form or another, employment that's being cut back as part of neo-liberal restructuring, along with fuel and food subsidies that are the complementary pay-off of the rurual poor to the urban state-employment programs. Political and economic organisation restricted to state-sanctioned (and ran/paid) initiatives, people working abroad in 'democratic' countries sending back crucial remittances to their families facing their own versions of austerity...

Interesting paper here Social Structure of Accumulation Theory for the Arab World: The Economies of Egypt, Jordan, and Kuwait in the Regional System (pdf) - today Kuwait announced £4 biilion worth of free food...

 

[Streathamite]

The people's interests are to support the emergence of democratic African and Arab people-power governments which, unlike Saddam, Mubarak, Gaddafi and the rest, don't feel a need to support terrorists elsewhere in the world including terrorists who bomb Britain, America and our allies with a "blame-the-west-for-our-problems" strategy to shore up their domestic positions.

Huh? Gaddafi is the only arab leader who has consistently given support and succour to terrorists - the rest is just lies.
And the whole point of the jihadist grievances are that they are defensive ones, in that they want the USA & co to stop intervening so strongly in the arab and muslim worlds, either directly (invading Iraq) or indirectly (propping up the House Of Saud, supporting Israel).
Get real Peter - or get better informed

 

[Streathamite]

Dylans - you nailed it with your first sentence in post #171, so I really wouldn't bother with Peter, the bloke's nuts

 

[dylans]

Dylans - you nailed it with your first sentence in post #171, so I really wouldn't bother with Peter, the bloke's nuts

Oh ok. He's a loon. message received.

 

[butchersapron]

LONDON PROTEST AT TUNISIAN EMBASSY, NO TO CORRUPT RCD! 5-6:30pm. AND ORGANISING ONE OUTSIDE LYBIAN EMBASSY SOON