The Trump presidency

[Pickman's model]

Well I do expect a second term is obsessing folk in the West Wing even more than immiserating out groups. The incumbent President usually has an advantage. Looking at the pro-Trump media he is still being hailed as the Messiah. Trump appears to be uniquely incapable but that's not so bad if you lead a mostly Dixie orientated party that hates the Federal government. Being an utterly ineffectual pussy may even be a plus. He'll appoint right leaning judges to the Supreme Court and probably aided by bluedog Dems will pass some elite tax cuts. That can get him over the bar. Getting slapped down by Putin, Xi or Khamenei could also have a rallying effect.

3 years 9.5 months

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

3 years 9.5 months

Time Until Trump Leaves Office - Countdown

 

[8den]

Well I do expect a second term is obsessing folk in the West Wing even more than immiserating out groups. The incumbent President usually has an advantage. Looking at the pro-Trump media he is still being hailed as the Messiah. Trump appears to be uniquely incapable but that's not so bad if you lead a mostly Dixie orientated party that hates the Federal government. Being an utterly ineffectual pussy may even be a plus. He'll appoint right leaning judges to the Supreme Court and probably aided by bluedog Dems will pass some elite tax cuts. That can get him over the bar. Getting slapped down by Putin, Xi or Khamenei could also have a rallying effect.

Don't be ridiculous right now he's about as popularly as a horny dog in a Miss Teen USA pagent. He may keep his base but aside from WW3 he'll never make it to the end of his 1st term.


This is from a recent interview



Look at the bags under his eyes!?!

He's 70 years old, he eats like a teenager, he's not sleeping enough, I doubt he makes it another 3 years with having to retire due to ill health (fake or real you choose)

 

[Smangus]

I doubt he makes it another 3 years with having to retire due to ill health (fake or real you choose)

Lets hope it's real....

 

[CRI]

Looking at the numbers (there's only a slight drop in GOP support) I still think he has a fair shot at a second term and he is lucky bastard.

Not so sure about that.

First there will be the 2018 election with all the house and 1/3 of the senate seats up for election and also seats to win in state legislatures and governerships. The primaries will be this time next year (where they pick the office nominees for each party,) so not too far away.

The Democrats only need to take back three Senate seats (5 to be safe in case the 2 Independents back out,) to gain a majority. All 435 House seats are up for grabs and Democrats only need 25 more of them (less than 6% of the total) to take control. If the momentum from jamming constituency phone lines on Trumpcare and the turn outs at town hall meetings can keep going, these scenarios are definitely possible.

Remember, Trump lost the popular vote by over 3m, and but gained in the electoral college stakes particularly in states that enacted new voter ID rules, restricted polling places and opening times and/or where those with past felony convictions are barred from voting. Even if you set aside the potential influence Russian leadership supported online activities, the mainstream media's ability to overlook Trump's worst faults while fixating on Clinton's fucking emails and the shitshow with the FBI head's announcement that he'd reopened the case against her, then his feeble "no sorry, my bad," it was hardly a Trump landslide.

42% of Americans eligible to vote didn't. The answer is targeting them - it only takes a few percent of them to go to the polls next time to kick the Republicans into the long grass. Some of them assumed Clinton would win and they didn't need to vote. Some never voted before and didn't think it important. Some didn't get to cast their ballot because formal or informal voter suppression measures stopped them.

I have a hunch that far more of the 42% than not will find the Trump administration and GOP legislature has a negative impact on their lives. The key is to motivate and/or spare no effort to get these folks to the polls (or to vote absentee) in 2018 and 2020.

The only hitch will be if the administration and government push further draconian laws and policies that effectively make anything even nearing a democratic election happen from 2018 onwards, or Trump manages to get most of us killed in a war either to distract from some kleptocratic action he's taken, or just because he's dying to play with the nuclear toys.

 

[CRI]

Speaking of the nuclear toys . . . .

Military strike on North Korea may be only option, Gen. Keane says

On the heels of yet another North Korean missile test, albeit one the Pentagon says failed, and ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Trump’s first choice for Secretary of Defense told Fox News the U.S. is right to consider first-strike military action against Pyongyang.

“We’re rapidly and dangerously heading towards the reality that the military option is the only one left when it comes to getting North Korea to denuclearize and not weaponized [intercontinental ballistic missiles]," said retired four-star Gen. Jack Keane.

 

[coley]

Well, my kid's friends visited there a week ago or so, to go to a concert in Tacoma. They all made it back alive.

Some of my family went through the US in transit on their way to NZ a couple of years back, one of them who is of 'mixed race' was interrogated and his baggage was ransacked, another member of the party who had the misfortune to be bearded and tanned was given similar treatment but this lad has learning difficulties and the experience was particularly terrifying for him.
This was 'pre Trump'
So, to reiterate, any bugger who travels to the US at this time, without pressing need, needs their heads examined.

 

[coley]

Maybe not, I haven't been paying close attention to who has posted what, but my original gripe wasn't directed at him specifically. Nevertheless, I think the word liberal is applied too generously. I don't think it is fair to attack CRI, someone probably pretty far to the left in relative terms, as a liberal and then defend the tone of venom directed against liberals by conflating them with Thatcher-type liberals.

Oh and incidentally, liberal governments have came down on striking workers, but so have plenty of Marxist governments! Marxist Leninist governments are in fact stricter about striking than liberal governments. I know redsquirrel is not a Marxist-Leninist, but my point is that theoretical and ideological allegiances is no guarantee of actual behaviour. Being nominally Marxist is no guarantee of being on the side of the working class, and having liberal tendencies is also no guarantee that you are going to side with the bourgeoisie. Thinking in these kinds of rigid theoretical terms is also something that is holding back the development of a socialist movement at a moment when the conditions should be ripe.

I'm just bothered by the dismissal of people who deviate slightly from rigid anarcho-Marxist orthodoxy as liberals. I don't think claiming that support for Trump is motivated by racial and ethnic identity means that he or she is denying that economic discontent and class is also a factor and is therefore an elitist liberal. Economic factors are of course significant, but they are not the only factors which shape someone's worldview.

"Being nominally Marxist is no guarantee of being on the side of the working class, and having liberal tendencies is also no guarantee that you are going to side with the bourgeoisie. Thinking in these kinds of rigid theoretical terms is also something that is holding back the development of a socialist movement"
Nicely put

 

[coley]

With Trump's current status as a weak leader struggling to achieve anything and with historically low approval ratings, a war with North Korea may be quite likely. It will allow him to portray himself as the strong leader he wants people go see him as.

But I cannot see China being happy about this at all. Could be very dangerous.

And the prize for the 'understatement of the week' goes to ............

 

[coley]

I'm not an academic and don't have the in depth knowledge of political ideologies that some here seem to have, and I don't get hung up on labels.

I do come from a long line of rural working class political activists and members of the Democratic Party. In the context of the very socially and politically conservative community where I grew up (Majority Republican, very high church attendance, 98% white, Median household income $38k while US average $51k), my family were considered very left wing. I was and remain off the scale to people there.

84% voted Trump. They have backed the Republican candidate in each election since 1964 when Johnson got a slim majority. In communities like this throughout the US, most white working class folk have been happily Republican for generations. They aren't going to change. I don't think people in the UK nor the mostly urban, often better educated supporters of Sanders in the US understand that.

True, it's comparable to the British working class voting 'tory'
But identifying your political 'niche' in today's world is becoming increasingly difficult, buggered if I know which class or political niche I currently inhabit

 

[CRI]

True, it's comparable to the British working class voting 'tory'
But identifying your political 'niche' in today's world is becoming increasingly difficult, buggered if I know which class or political niche I currently inhabit

Yup, the working class Tory voter is a thing. My ex father in law was a builder / odd job man from 14 til knocking on for 70. Read the Sun, adored Thatcher, always voted Conservative. All the aunts and uncles were the same, come to think of it. How did I end up in that freak show of a family? Ah well, ancient history now

 

[bimble]

..Look at the bags under his eyes!?!

He's 70 years old, he eats like a teenager, he's not sleeping enough, I doubt he makes it another 3 years with having to retire due to ill health (fake or real you choose)

Without the tan and the hairdo:

 

[coley]

Trump's poor and rural supporters line up to take their economic beating: Opinion

Poor buggers.

 

[coley]

Just seen a Reuters post on Twitter that Steve Bannon has been removed from the National Security Council.

TTT has probably just realised Bannon isn't related to his 'brood'

 

[coley]

How did I end up in that freak show of a family? Ah well, ancient history now

Interested to learn how we all make mistakes

 

[CRI]

TTT has probably just realised Bannon isn't related to his 'brood'

Oh Bannon will still be around, I'm sure.

 

[CRI]

Interested to learn how we all make mistakes

If you must know, met the ex in a pig sty in Norway. On reflection, should have married the pig! Went through Hell together the same day. Should have known . . .

 

[coley]

Looking at the numbers (there's only a slight drop in GOP support) I still think he has a fair shot at a second term and he is lucky bastard.

All the democrats have to do is put forward someone who isn't called Clinton and who can manage to articulate....., no I'll leave it there

 

[coley]

It's not so much about picking out who's worst in Trump's cabinet - it's more about trying to pick anyone who has any redeeming qualities.

McMasters,and that's about it.

 

[coley]

3 years 9.5 months

Gone within the next 16 months.

 

[coley]

Don't be ridiculous right now he's about as popularly as a horny dog in a Miss Teen USA pagent. He may keep his base but aside from WW3 he'll never make it to the end of his 1st term.


This is from a recent interview View attachment 103673



Look at the bags under his eyes!?!

He's 70 years old, he eats like a teenager, he's not sleeping enough, I doubt he makes it another 3 years with having to retire due to ill health (fake or real you choose)

Can someone with some betting knowledge organise a whachemcallit? I'll bet £50 he is gone within 16 months, all proceeds to the server fund.

 

[coley]

If you must know, met the ex in a pig sty in Norway. On reflection, should have married the pig! Went through Hell together the same day. Should have known . . .

View attachment 103683

Hell together on the same day? Could say that about my marriage but 35 years later, still solid, details on the pig sty would be interesting?

 

[coley]

Oh Bannon will still be around, I'm sure.

You reckon? Sounds like the SIL has Trumped

 

[Johnny Canuck3]

I think it's arguable that in the US, this counts as political news: Norman Lear says that Ann Coulter is dating JJ Walker.

The universe is a blessed place.

 

[Wolveryeti]

He's 70 years old, he eats like a teenager, he's not sleeping enough, I doubt he makes it another 3 years with having to retire due to ill health (fake or real you choose)

I wouldn't bet on it. His parents lived to 88 and 93.

Plus the real power behind him will keep injecting him with the blood of newborns and rolling him in front of an autocue until he literally can't speak any more or carks it live on stage.

 

[Tankus]

His daughter...?

 

[kebabking]

His daughter...?

The Great One can take many forms...

 

[Pickman's model]

I wouldn't bet on it. His parents lived to 88 and 93.

Plus the real power behind him will keep injecting him with the blood of newborns and rolling him in front of an autocue until he literally can't speak any more or carks it live on stage.

An American brezhnev

 

[CrabbedOne]

Not so sure about that.

First there will be the 2018 election with all the house and 1/3 of the senate seats up for election and also seats to win in state legislatures and governerships. The primaries will be this time next year (where they pick the office nominees for each party,) so not too far away.

The Democrats only need to take back three Senate seats (5 to be safe in case the 2 Independents back out,) to gain a majority. All 435 House seats are up for grabs and Democrats only need 25 more of them (less than 6% of the total) to take control. If the momentum from jamming constituency phone lines on Trumpcare and the turn outs at town hall meetings can keep going, these scenarios are definitely possible.

Remember, Trump lost the popular vote by over 3m, and but gained in the electoral college stakes particularly in states that enacted new voter ID rules, restricted polling places and opening times and/or where those with past felony convictions are barred from voting. Even if you set aside the potential influence Russian leadership supported online activities, the mainstream media's ability to overlook Trump's worst faults while fixating on Clinton's fucking emails and the shitshow with the FBI head's announcement that he'd reopened the case against her, then his feeble "no sorry, my bad," it was hardly a Trump landslide.

42% of Americans eligible to vote didn't. The answer is targeting them - it only takes a few percent of them to go to the polls next time to kick the Republicans into the long grass. Some of them assumed Clinton would win and they didn't need to vote. Some never voted before and didn't think it important. Some didn't get to cast their ballot because formal or informal voter suppression measures stopped them.

I have a hunch that far more of the 42% than not will find the Trump administration and GOP legislature has a negative impact on their lives. The key is to motivate and/or spare no effort to get these folks to the polls (or to vote absentee) in 2018 and 2020.

The only hitch will be if the administration and government push further draconian laws and policies that effectively make anything even nearing a democratic election happen from 2018 onwards, or Trump manages to get most of us killed in a war either to distract from some kleptocratic action he's taken, or just because he's dying to play with the nuclear toys.

Gore beat Bush in the popular vote. Obama also lost the popular vote to Romney. Clinton picked up most of those votes in California which is thriving.

These are the key numbers:

...
President Trump is behind among key elements of his base:

• Men disapprove 51 - 39 percent;
• Republicans approve 79 - 14 percent;
• White voters disapprove 48 - 43 percent.

Disapproval is 63 - 31 percent among women, 91 - 6 percent among Democrats, 57 - 32 percent among independent voters and 77 - 16 percent among non-white voters.
...

The only area of danger there is he's losing men. Republican disapproval has stayed in the low teens. Bush had to screw up massively to lose Republicans despite a foolish war it's really only the US housing crash that tanked his ratings and that was in his last two years when he also risked an unpopular try at immigration reform.

Trump's pretty obviously an identity candidate elected mainly by people who loath the Federal government. He'll get fuck all done, be incredibly divisive, blame Obama for everything and that will work well enough. Republicans reelected an highly obstructive do nothing Congress that hobbled Obama. A useless President is just more of the same.

Trump could be a no hoper if he actually got to implement his crackpot agenda on things like healthcare and trade as that could really bugger up a lot of his voters lives rather quickly but it seems these are dead ducks. He needs to get his originalist/corporatist nominee Supreme Court and jam through an elite tax cut or he'll start losing Republicans. Even the hapless Trump can get that done.

There is in fact not much wrong with the economy in most of America he was left by Obama. I've noticed Republicans are now talking much more positively about it and credit Trump with what are still the downstream effects of Obama policies. There's no quick fix for the low output areas that voted heavily for Trump. His voters probably won't blame Trump for not changing much at least not till his second term. Trump may even be able to pump up the speculative bubble that's forming by deregulating. The suckers who bought his voodoo economics pitch mostly won't admit to themselves they've been duped until its too late.

As for the Americans that didn't vote that may be the Trump card. In the second run he'll already have shaped the American human terrain into angry warring camps of identity politics. The botched Muslim Ban proved really popular. Expect more of that shit publicly immiserating out groups. The level of hate direct towards treacherous liberals and a nefarious deep state conspiracy will amplify. I'd predict he'll play on identity issues even more strongly in order to bring out more enraged unlikely voters. They'll be lower middle class white folks rallying to their beloved reality TV President. That's the kind of Deeply Southern Strategy Bannon will be planning.

 

[8den]

I wouldn't bet on it. His parents lived to 88 and 93.

Plus the real power behind him will keep injecting him with the blood of newborns and rolling him in front of an autocue until he literally can't speak any more or carks it live on stage.

Have you heard him speak? How could we tell.

Presumably there's parts of the republican party waiting for him to have a stroke any day now.