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Now that the GOP health care bill has cratered, the Trump administration has two basic options for how to proceed. One would be to accept that Obamacare is here to stay and
push for tweaks to help stabilize the exchanges and minimize the disruptions to families. The other option would be to sabotage the exchanges, let Obamacare implode, and blame Democrats for the resulting chaos, which Trump keeps saying would be much smarter politics. That’s not necessarily true at a time when Republicans control Washington; if millions of Americans suddenly lost their coverage, they might wonder why the president seemed so eager for that to happen. But regardless of who gets blamed, it could happen, and a lot of Americans could get hurt.
If Trump fails to bully the Mexicans into massive NAFTA concessions, or even a face-saving NAFTA update reinstating the TPP concessions, he will face a similar choice: Muddle through with the status quo, or walk away and blame others for the chaos. Getting a divided Congress to approve a revised NAFTA would be a daunting legislative challenge, but abandoning NAFTA would be quite simple; Trump would just need to give six months’ notice. He would be risking the demolition of North American supply chains, fury from farmers and consumers, a potential trade war, and a potential recession. To add insult to self-inflicted injury, tariffs would revert to their pre-NAFTA levels, which were much higher in Mexico and Canada than in the U.S. So in a sense, threatening to withdraw from the deal would be like pointing a gun at his own head and threatening to shoot.
Again, though, Trump could do it if he were willing to face the consequences. Jeb Bush famously derided him as a “chaos candidate,” and there are certainly signs that he might be a chaos president. At the same time, even though the public keeps voting for political change, it tends to get skittish about policy change, and especially policy chaos. It’s not clear yet how willing Trump will be to risk a backlash.
What is clear is that Trump’s frequent promises to help Americans
lose weight by eating ice cream will eventually crash into reality. It’s easy to promise that the next NAFTA will include major Mexican concessions and no Mexican retaliation before the negotiations begin, just as it was easy to promise that Republicans were preparing a wonderful replacement to Obamacare before the plan became public. But just as Trump recently discovered that health care was more complex than he realized, he’ll soon discover that trade deals can be complex, too. Not even superpowers get to dictate the outcomes.
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