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In my recently published
book, I analyzed the different response of majority-Muslim states to the US Global War on Terrorism through a statistical study and case studies of Pakistan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. The primary focus of my book was on religion, and I argued that the varying manner in which Islam and the state were connected in Muslim states explained a significant part of states’ policies on counterterrorism. In the statistical analysis, however, I included several other possible explanations for states cooperating with America on counterterrorism, including the history of conflict with America, domestic conflict, state strength, and the amount of economic and military aid the state receives from the United States.
This led to some surprising results. The extent of ties between both Islam and the state and alliance connections with America mattered; the former decreased cooperation on counterterrorism, and the latter increased it. But the other factor that had a significant and consistent effect on a Muslim state’s counterterrorism policies was US aid. States that received more aid tended to be more cooperative on the Global War on Terrorism than those that did not.
Obviously, aid is not everything when it comes to counterterrorism. Pakistan receives a massive amount of aid from the United States –
$1.1 billion in 2015 – but has had particularly fraught counterterrorism relations with America. But in general, a decrease in aid from the United States is likely to lessen a Muslim state’s cooperation with America on counterterrorism. Based on my analysis, a significant decrease in US aid would lead to a drop in counterterrorism cooperation corresponding to the difference between Qatar—a US counterterrorism partner despite some persistent concerns—and Mali, which has struggled to disrupt terrorist activity in its territory. There are of course many other differences between the two, but this is suggestive of the type of counterterrorism impact we can expect if the United States cuts foreign aid.
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