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The Trump presidency

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I was at an airport the other day and got talking to a Trump supporter. Mid-Western, was heading to Iraq to work as a contractor for the military (teaching people to put out fires, so not too nefarious). Nice guy, very American. Not a fanatical Trump supporter but, as a lot of them have said, he thought he was the only shot they had at 'bringing the jobs back' although even he thought it was unlikely to happen. Also said he'd have voted for Sanders if he could have although didn't really know what Socialism or it's variants were. Did support universal healthcare and education though (and unions were good, but all corrupt).

We didn't talk about the racism or xenophobia from Trump but got the feeling that he probably did have dodgy views in the same way a lot of white Americans do, which isn't overt or even clear internally really. It's just a profound lack of awareness, hell, a lack of any necessity to ever be aware. In a lot of places it's still a really, really, really segregated country. Reminded me of people I've spoken to in the past in relatively mixed cities (Philly, Boston, Mid-West etc), they live in white neighbourhoods, they socialise in white areas, their friends are predominantly white. And where they meet other people it's taken as a separate issue, if a friend or co-worker is black or an immigrant then they almost never 'count' when it comes to the bigoted rhetoric from their politicians. Most of that's just some abstract notion which they don't think about enough to really agree or disagree with - most of them aren't Alt-Right or White Supremacists after all. Doesn't mean that there isn't some heavy racism there but it's not often Confederate flag waving mania, it's just disinterest because none of it really relates to their worlds.

Was also a firm believer in climate change and was against the big pipeline on the grounds that Native Americans had been fucked over enough. Although he did think Trump had cancelled that so all was well (not sure where that came from, I was a little pissed by that point).

Was an interesting few hours at any rate and not hard to see how people like him could be won over to more Left Wing candidates and even solidarity outside of their day to day experiences. Don't see it happening though given the political climate over there, Democrats still dominated by Clinton types and lots of identity politics which is set to attack mode. Sometimes with good reason to be sure, but still.
 
coley said:
But when he fails to deliver nothing more than tax cuts to his cronies his supporters will just find more excuses for him.
The issue of "Deplorables' was one HCs bigger mistkes but you can understand where she was coming from and just as importantly, the fact many who were 'outraged' recognised themselves.
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I'd not under rate the tax cut focused on the "Wealth Creators" lots of his supporters talk that up even though they won't benefit directly. He'll tilt the Supreme court rightward. That'll satisfy an awful lot of GOP voters. Trump will continue to blame Obama for other problems and claim he was handed a wrecked country and that will go down well for some time. This may be a great distortion of Obama's legacy to him but problems like a slow growing fully developed economy, crippling levels of debt, gouging healthcare providers and an unstable MENA are just not going to go away.

As for the large deplorable section of his base he's already delivered a very visible victimisation of Muslims even if they did cock up the legal work and had to redo it. Trump may be rather successful as a grandstanding punisher of hated minorities. That may make up for failure to deliver in more difficult areas like intractable problems with for example an often obsolete Rust Belt economy.

The bigger danger is he'll escape the adult supervision that's beginning to restrain him and actually manage to bugger the fragile international system.
 
On Political Violence @ A Glance How Norms Die
...
The life and death of global norms, in other words, has often been tied to sudden transformations of the international system. These global shocks rearrange the hierarchy of great powers but also trigger cascades of normative reform. The Soviet collapse and end of the Cold War, for example, led to massive changes in the legitimacy of key global practices like external election monitoring, democracy promotion, and humanitarian intervention.

If Trump is serious about forcing a change in the global order, we should soon see some long-standing practices being challenged, whether intentionally or not. Some of these, like the idea of a Western security community, seem deeply entrenched and therefore inviolable. But as the history of the past century suggests, norms can be surprisingly fragile and disappear quicker than anyone expects. There is nothing natural or inevitable about the “norm of free trade” or the “norm against territorial conquest”. Those who seek to maintain specific norms must therefore be alert to challenges large and small, direct and indirect. Often, these norms are underpinned by hegemonic preferences – and when these preferences change, so might expectations of legitimate behavior. If that’s the case, Trump’s challenge to the global order could keep making waves even if he doesn’t overturn the boat.
Click to expand...
Some Norms were on their last legs even before Trump. While the Russians grabbing back Crimea is cited here it's often overlooked that a shed load got taken out and shot after 9-11. Torture, global programs of targeted assassination, mass surveillance and a dubiously legal attempt to reshape the ME in Mall America's image. None of this was a smooth progression.

A likely casualty of the Trump era is large areas of Human Rights. He has a point inalienable rights that transcend national sovereignty are unpopular. A lot of Germans may feel a noble duty to help refugees but they appear to be an exception. That may finally not transcend the fairly small risks involved. Many Septics and Brits whose countries had a part in the wars that stimulated refugee flows often feel this just isn't their problem. Both Farage and Trump berate Merkel's generous shouldering of what's currently an international burden. Even providing modest amounts of aid abroad to keep refugees there is disliked by many. The urge to wall out the world with armoured borders is appealing even if it's not very effective.

Somethings were plainly overreach the intrusive doctrine of the routine waving of sovereignty and assertion of the Right To Protect has tended to sow chaos. It's no longer the post-Cold War unipolar world.
 
Hadn't noticed this.

On TAC Russell Moore’s Job On The Line
...
Concern is mounting among evangelicals that Russell Moore, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s policy arm, could lose his job following months of backlash over his critiques of President Trump and religious leaders who publicly supported the Republican candidate. Any such move could be explosive for the nation’s largest Protestant denomination, which has been divided over politics, theology and, perhaps most starkly, race.

More than 100 of the denomination’s 46,000 churches have threatened to cut off financial support for the SBC’s umbrella fund, according to Frank Page, president of the executive committee. The committee is studying whether the churches are acting out of displeasure with Moore because it has received more threats to funding over him than over any other “personality issue” in recent memory, said Page, who will meet with Moore today
...
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Moore during the campaign:
...
That said all political issues are not equal. I’ve voted for candidates I disagreed with on issues like immigration reform or family medical leave because I’ve agreed with them on the sanctity of human life. I could not, though, vote for a “pro-life” candidate who is also for racial injustice or war crimes or any number of other first-level moral issues. There are some candidates I agree on issues like economic growth or national security for whom I could not vote for because they deny the personhood of the unborn or restrict religious freedom for all people.

Given these moral convictions, there have been times when I’ve faced two candidates, both of whom were morally disqualified. In one case, one candidate was pro-life but a race-baiter, running against a candidate who was pro-choice. I could not in good conscience put my name on either candidate. I wrote in the name of another leader. Other times, I’ve voted for a minor party candidate.
...
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He took other Evangelicals to task for their partisan support of Trump.
 
coley said:
But when he fails to deliver nothing more than tax cuts to his cronies his supporters will just find more excuses for him.
The issue of "Deplorables' was one HCs bigger mistkes but you can understand where she was coming from and just as importantly, the fact many who were 'outraged' recognised themselves.
Click to expand...

Good point. I genuinely think the Clinton camp thought it feasible to appeal to the better nature of "good" Republicans, who would be appalled by Trump's bigotry and constant lies. What they didn't count on was that far more Republicans than not actually welcomed his bigoted views, which reflected their own, and weren't bothered by his lies.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I've mentioned the Prosperity Gospel a number of times on here. Here's an article about how it helped the Republicans in the last election:

How Prosperity Gospel Delivered Rural Iowa To Republicans - Iowa Starting Line

For the Democrats to win, they're going to have to address religion better.
Click to expand...

For many here in the Uk it's beyond comprehension that 'religion' could have any real dynamics in modern day politics.
And as for praying for "hard cash" sounds more like a cargo cult than Christianity.
 
CrabbedOne said:
On Political Violence @ A Glance How Norms Die
Some Norms were on their last legs even before Trump. While the Russians grabbing back Crimea is cited here it's often overlooked that a shed load got taken out and shot after 9-11. Torture, global programs of targeted assassination, mass surveillance and a dubiously legal attempt to reshape the ME in Mall America's image. None of this was a smooth progression.

A likely casualty of the Trump era is large areas of Human Rights. He has a point inalienable rights that transcend national sovereignty are unpopular. A lot of Germans may feel a noble duty to help refugees but they appear to be an exception. That may finally not transcend the fairly small risks involved. Many Septics and Brits whose countries had a part in the wars that stimulated refugee flows often feel this just isn't their problem. Both Farage and Trump berate Merkel's generous shouldering of what's currently an international burden. Even providing modest amounts of aid abroad to keep refugees there is disliked by many. The urge to wall out the world with armoured borders is appealing even if it's not very effective.

Somethings were plainly overreach the intrusive doctrine of the routine waving of sovereignty and assertion of the Right To Protect has tended to sow chaos. It's no longer the post-Cold War unipolar world.
Click to expand...

Aye whey, in that context blame the EU for its encouragement of Eastern European countries to join NATO and the EU.
Said countries could now be looking askance (with the exception of Poland) at their earlier enthusiasm, given the EUs obvious structural and financial weaknesses and the American people electing a demonstrably stupid Buffoon as its leader.
Many countries will be wondering if it's about time to 're-align'
 
coley said:
Aye whey, in that context blame the EU for its encouragement of Eastern European countries to join NATO and the EU.
Said countries could now be looking askance (with the exception of Poland) at their earlier enthusiasm, given the EUs obvious structural and financial weaknesses and the American people electing a demonstrably stupid Buffoon as its leader.
Many countries will be wondering if it's about time to 're-align'
Click to expand...
You mean, EU countries other than Poland (er, what about other east European accession countries?) Genuinely puzzled as to your drift. :confused:
 
CRI said:
Good point. I genuinely think the Clinton camp thought it feasible to appeal to the better nature of "good" Republicans, who would be appalled by Trump's bigotry and constant lies. What they didn't count on was that far more Republicans than not actually welcomed his bigoted views, which reflected their own, and weren't bothered by his lies.
Click to expand...

Depressing as it is, I think you are right, but not just Democrats, but most people with half a dozen functioning brain cells thought, this can't happen, nobody will vote for this horrible creature!
But they did.
And given that, I believe, a lot of people across the world, not just in seats of government but in offices, living rooms, and factory floors are re-evaluating their comfortable world view.
 
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bluescreen said:
You mean, EU countries other than Poland (er, what about other east European accession countries?) Genuinely puzzled as to your drift. :confused:
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Poland hates Russia so no change there, but Latvia, Estonia etc all with large ethnic Russian populations mebbes the 'lure of the West' and its promise of security and improved living standards are no longer the certainty they once were?
Not stating a substantive position here, more just wondering where things are going?
 
coley said:
Poland hates Russia so no change there, but Latvia, Estonia etc all with large ethnic Russian populations mebbes the 'lure of the West' and its promise of security and improved living standards are no longer the certainty they once were?
Not stating a substantive position here, more just wondering where things are going?
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On Xinhua Poll: Public support for Estonia's EU membership remains strong
TALLINN, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- Public support for the European Union (EU) remains strong in Estonia with more than 75 percent of the population backing the country's membership in the bloc, a new poll commissioned by the Estonian government shows.

According to the survey, 77 percent of respondents generally support Estonia's membership in the EU, which is a slightly more than in 2015 when public support for the EU had decreased.

Authors of the survey said sudden and worrisome events in the world last year might have caused Estonians appreciate their country's membership in the bloc.

"Brexit and Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election caused concerns about potential threats to Estonia's security. In this situation, former euros-skeptics probably started doubting the need to leave the EU," said Turu-Uuringute research manager Vaike Vainu.

The percentage of respondents firmly supporting Estonia's membership in the EU grew from 43 percent in 2015 to 48 percent in 2016, while the percentage of respondents opposing membership in the bloc fell from 19 percent to 14 percent.
...
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Seems to be rather the reverse in an Estonia.

You do have to consider what a mess kleptocratic mess Russia is compared with the EU. Estonians are well placed to make that comparison. Russia is now is the world's largest oil producer but average wages fell below China's last year. They may have the best prostitutes in the world according to Putin. The rather Trumpian Russian elite are plainly doing very nicely but they often seem to spend most of their time ostentatiously spending the loot elsewhere. In terms of Per Captia GDP Russians are a bit better off than Turks and not as well off as Greeks after years prostrate before the Troika. Actually this comparison with Brexiteer scaring Turkey is revealingly similar in places. Note the Russian murder rate is more than twice as high as is the calamitous death rate. A Turk can expect to live seven years longer than a Russian. Even enthusiastic ethnic-Russians can find that a little off putting or should that be off-Putin. I find Russians I run into both very patriotic and enormously cynical about their crimogenic ruling elite.

On NATO according to this in Eastern Europe only Montenegro and Serbia are rather negative about the alliance. I saw another poll that had similar attitudes in Bulgaria, Greece and Bosnia. So it would seems it's the Balkans where NATO does badly currently. Kosovo and Albanian excepted they are plainly terrified of the Russians and their chums.
 
coley said:
For many here in the Uk it's beyond comprehension that 'religion' could have any real dynamics in modern day politics.
And as for praying for "hard cash" sounds more like a cargo cult than Christianity.
Click to expand...

TBF christianity is basically just a very old, very complicated cargo cult.
 
In FP White House Seeks to Cut Billions in Funding for United Nations
State Department staffers have been instructed to seek cuts in excess of 50 percent in U.S. funding for U.N. programs, signaling an unprecedented retreat by President Donald Trump’s administration from international operations that keep the peace, provide vaccines for children, monitor rogue nuclear weapons programs, and promote peace talks from Syria to Yemen, according to three sources.
...
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A Bannonite blow against World Gubmint?
 
coley said:
For many here in the Uk it's beyond comprehension that 'religion' could have any real dynamics in modern day politics.
And as for praying for "hard cash" sounds more like a cargo cult than Christianity.
Click to expand...
In much of the world religion and politics are inseparable. God used to obsess the English as well not so long ago. In the UK religion is still rather salient in places like Belfast, Derry or Glasgow where it's still an identity issue.

That's pretty much what it is in the States where your place of worship also tribal marker like race. Right wing Prods, Catholic and Jews did manage to put away their differences during the culture wars but it's all simmering away beneath the surface. The resurgence of antisemitism is a return to older ways.

US President's being pious even just as a hard worked at pose is something of a norm. Given the US obsession with making a buck it's perhaps surprising that Trump's the first US President who seems, behind a laughably thin charade of being a Christian, to be a straightforward worshiper of Mammon. This may not be an improvement as he seems to have no moral sense and a feeling of community based almost entirely on hating on minorities. That may be what happens when you subtract a judgemental God and a Hell to burn in from Americans. They go plain pussy grabbing feral.
 
On WaPo White supremacism is ready to roar
...
Witness the words of Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) on the subject of immigration: “Culture and demographics are our destiny. We can’t restore our civilization with somebody else’s babies.” King offered these sentiments Sunday in a tweet expressing solidarity with Geert Wilders, an openly racist and Islamophobic Dutch politician who has a chance of becoming prime minister in elections this week. Wilders is someone who “understands,” King wrote.

And we understand just what King meant. Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke certainly got the message, using his vile Twitter account to proclaim, “GOD BLESS STEVE KING!!!”

Just so there’s no confusion, King went on CNN Monday to say that “I meant exactly what I said.” He added: “I’ve been to Europe and I’ve spoken on this issue and I’ve said the same thing as far as 10 years ago to the German people and any population of people that is a declining population that isn’t willing to have enough babies to reproduce themselves. I’ve said to them, ‘You can’t rebuild your civilization with somebody else’s babies. You’ve got to keep your birthrate up and you need to teach your children your values.”

Why am I hearing faint strains of “Deutschland über alles”? And why am I not hearing a loud chorus of condemnation from King’s Republican colleagues?

King told CNN that he is merely “a champion for Western civilization,” which he called “a superior civilization.” Which means, of course, that he considers other civilizations inferior. But we knew that.
...
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Very extreme views steadily becoming normalised within the GOP.
 
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