The Trump presidency

[CrabbedOne]

On War Is Boring How Putin Might Yank Away Trump’s Control Over America’s Nuclear Weapons

...
In the near term, anything that separates Trump from the nation’s most powerful weapons may offer some measure of comfort to his harshest critics, who fear the first-time office holder might just nuke any foreign leader who slights him. But it shouldn’t. A frail command-and-control apparatus over the nuclear arsenal virtually invites dangerous tests by unfriendly foreign powers, no matter who is president.

Which brings us back to the linchpin of Stanley Kubrick’s film. Could a technical failure that blocks the president from calling a nuclear bomber back to base really end Earth as we know it?

You may want to sit down.

The newly minted U.S. president’s capacity to communicate with ground-, sea- or air-based nuclear forces during an international crisis is “pathetic” — in terms of both ordering a strike and calling one off, said Bruce Blair, a strategic command-and-control expert at Princeton University.

“Today serious deficiencies and vulnerabilities” in the nuclear-communications network cast doubt on whether “either an ‘execute’ or ‘termination’ order could be successfully transmitted or received by the dispersed strategic forces,” Blair told War Is Boring. These command and control links have become “the Achilles heel of U.S. nuclear strategy,” he said.
...

Has the nuclear command and control structure as "hobbled by the technological equivalent of geriatric osteoporosis". Russian systems also have big ageing problems particularly in the early warning area.

It's not a comforting thought that Trumpski might in mid tantrum launch only to find out calling the strike off doesn't work.

 

[CrabbedOne]

...
Trump happened to be hosting Abe that day in Florida. Yet his lack of any mention of U.S. treaty ally South Korea didn’t go unnoticed by new Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. So, while on his first official trip, Tillerson arranged a three-way meeting in Germany with the Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers to show the U.S. wasn’t picking favorites, according to a senior State Department official.

The talks culminated in a joint declaration in which the U.S. pledged to defend a pair of Asian nations that don’t always get along. There was no elaborate ceremony before the video cameras, no speeches, as their written statement went out in low-key fashion.

It was Tillerson’s way.

Cautious, reserved and intent on avoiding the spotlight, the former Exxon Mobil CEO is proving to be everything his extroverted Oval Office boss is not.

In his first weeks as America’s top diplomat, Tillerson has gone to great lengths to avoid attracting attention, despite a growing perception in Washington that the State Department is being sidelined by a power-centric White House.

Some State Department officials have been told by the White House to expect drastic budget cuts, with much of the reduction potentially coming out of U.S. foreign aid money. Trump and his team have also told those interviewing for top State Department jobs that significant staffing cuts will come. Some appear to have started already.

While Tillerson was in Germany, several senior management and advisory positions were eliminated. The staffers were reassigned. Some other top posts are vacant, and there are no signs they’ll be quickly filled.

While Tillerson has met or spoken with dozens of foreign counterparts in his first weeks, the White House is driving the front-page diplomacy. The lack of State Department involvement has flustered many long-time diplomats.
...

State was already pretty puny compared to the mighty Pentagon.

 

[hipipol]

Can't see all the posts about Milo, but plenty folk have been shouting he's a wrong 'un for quite some time, particularly Black feminists and trans women and men. Seems to be the white lads on the left and right who were saying, "C'mon, give him a chance, freeze peach and all that." Takes something like this to finally prick their consciences. Right oh.

Have seen a number of Milo "interviews" on UTwat - he is a classic look at me aint I fucking great attention seeking chicken - don't give a toss what danm=mage he may do, hus luv himself zummat harsh loik

Have probs with the little shit......

 

[J Ed]

You know one thing that occurred to me today, I had the two thoughts separately before but I hadn't thought of them together. Obama's relentless campaigning for TTIP may well have tipped the balance in both Brexit and the 2016 US election, certainly the latter is true. Of course, you can no doubt attribute many factors which if removed would ensure that neither Brexit nor Trump were possible. Just a thought that occurred to me. In states which you could characterise as largely post-industrial, Obama campaigned in 2008 to re-negotiate NAFTA whereas Clinton was effectively trying to give the appearance of fighting a rearguard action against a fundamentally unattractive trade deal that was being pushed very heavily by a Democratic administration.

Similarly, Obama came to Britain and effectively threatened Britons with exclusion from a trade deal which only oligarchs and their bag carriers ever wanted to be members of in the first place.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Another Senator gets grilled at town hall meeting:

Constituents Flood Another GOP Congressman's Town Halls And Angrily Confront Him | The Huffington Post

I like that people are fact checking their congress critters on the spot. You have to start from correct information to ever have a hope of moving forward.

 

[Lord Camomile]

I like that people are fact checking their congress critters on the spot. You have to start from correct information to ever have a hope of moving forward.

“I do not support taxpayer-funded paying of abortion,” Reed said, prompting boos. A woman in the front of the crowd immediately fact-checked his remark.

“You, an elected official, [are] giving misinformation,” she said. “Right now, our taxes do not pay for abortions. They pay for mammograms, they pay for birth control.”

“Planned Parenthood, less than 3 percent of the services they provide is abortion. And none of that 3 percent is funded by you,” she added.

 

[gosub]

Another Senator gets grilled at town hall meeting:

Constituents Flood Another GOP Congressman's Town Halls And Angrily Confront Him | The Huffington Post

I like that people are fact checking their congress critters on the spot. You have to start from correct information to ever have a hope of moving forward.

Was part of the Scots referendum buzz and should have become a feature, somehow EU referendum avoided

 

[NoXion]

Bill Maher's "ain't I clever finding common ground with Milo" was pretty ghastly, and an example of someone on the left (on the American spectrum at least) showing willingness to engage with him.

Here's piece in Salon I bookmarked from last year by Matthew Rozsa - Why we need Milo: Even offensive trolls like Milo Yiannopoulos are good for the left

Most stuff though was comments on social media, primarily from folk on the right suddenly getting all lathered about free speech while in the next post slamming Meryl Streep or similar, because theirs was the wrong kind of free speech. There where some comments from the "no platforming is bad" crowd criticising the UC Irvine ban of events by campus Republicans who'd invited Yannapolous to speak there.

So, no actual lefties at all, just the usual liberal suspects. Thanks for the smear.

 

[coley]

On TAC Trump’s Foreign Policy Incoherence
Mouthy and treacherously inconsistent is a lousy combination in most areas of business as well. Real Estate may be an exception.

Excellent article, well worth reading it in full, the bit(amongst others) I liked was,
"safe zone, a number of safe zones, in sections of Syria and that when this war, this horrible war, is over people can go back and rebuild if they want to and I would have the Gulf states finance it because they have the money and they should finance it. So far, they’ve put up very little money and they taken nobody in, essentially nobody in. I would be very strong with them because they have tremendous, they have unlimited amounts of money, and I would ask them to finance it. We can lead it but I don’t want to spend the money on it, because we don’t have any money. Our country doesn’t have money.

Because you, you tangerine idiot, and your pals have robbed the US blind.

 

[coley]

On War Is Boring How Putin Might Yank Away Trump’s Control Over America’s Nuclear Weapons
Has the nuclear command and control structure as "hobbled by the technological equivalent of geriatric osteoporosis". Russian systems also have big ageing problems particularly in the early warning area.

It's not a comforting thought that Trumpski might in mid tantrum launch only to find out calling the strike off doesn't work.

"To keep the president’s crisis-response options open in a crisis, “you’d want both VLF and EHF usable aboard nuclear-armed bombers,” Harvey said"
Hasn't this technobiff never heard of twitter? Doesn't he realise the 45th president doesn't need secure satellite systems!!
So sad, these people, trying to sell the hardworking families of the US these products of the socialist Silicon Valley, while my good friend Bannon has found me the original red telephone, yes folks, your president is on the original 'hotline' I'm now in direct conversation with Mr Gorbachev.....sorry folks, gotta go, the NYT is publishing more fake news.

 

[coley]

You know one thing that occurred to me today, I had the two thoughts separately before but I hadn't thought of them together. Obama's relentless campaigning for TTIP may well have tipped the balance in both Brexit and the 2016 US election, certainly the latter is true. Of course, you can no doubt attribute many factors which if removed would ensure that neither Brexit nor Trump were possible. Just a thought that occurred to me. In states which you could characterise as largely post-industrial, Obama campaigned in 2008 to re-negotiate NAFTA whereas Clinton was effectively trying to give the appearance of fighting a rearguard action against a fundamentally unattractive trade deal that was being pushed very heavily by a Democratic administration.

"Similarly, Obama came to Britain and effectively threatened Britons with exclusion from a trade deal which only oligarchs and their bag carriers ever wanted to be members of in the first place.

Nivver?? you seem to be suggesting that us thick, northern uneducated racist/bigots could have seen the threat that TTIP offered to our remaining (small) manufacturing base,the NHS and retailing(Unilever)
Nae, bonnie lad, it was always aboot them forriners cumin owerb here and pinchin wor non existent jobs'

 

[CrabbedOne]

On War Is Boring Trump’s New National Security Adviser Hates ‘Simple Truth’

...
It’s not just his battlefield accomplishments that have defined McMaster. He’s equally well-known for his intellectual pedigree. He was a military history professor at West Point and, as a major and Ph.D. candidate at the University of North Carolina, wrote Dereliction of Duty, a critical perspective on the Vietnam War.

McMaster lambasted Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara for their wartime leadership. But he reserved his harshest criticism for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other military officers for being more interested in currying favor and protecting their careers than giving their civilian superiors candid advice.

He argued that military force should be deployed carefully and only with clear objectives — which he asserted were absent in Vietnam.
...

Well that was unpredictable.

A notable member of The Awkward Squad McMaster isn't known for his tolerance for bullshit.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TNI America Shouldn't Expect a Job Boom Anytime Soon

...
While an aging population is a drag, it could be worse. Following the Great Recession, participation among those with family responsibilities increased. This encompasses individuals who had previously stayed home to raise children or care for family members.

But the most intriguing trend is the postponement of retirement by some of the boomers. Whether it is a result of a shock to their savings from asset prices, or the loss of anticipated income, some boomers are putting off their retirement. This has the effect of holding back part of the flood of age-related participation declines. Cumulatively, this equates to increasing participation by nearly 1 percent.

One question is when people will be less likely to delay retirement. The additional pressure from more retirements could weigh on participation quickly.

In absolute terms, the labor force is not shrinking. But as a portion of the employable population, it is shrinking and will continue to do so. This has little, if anything, to do with a shortage of jobs and lots to do with the aging of America. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, there are more than five million job openings.

The reality is that the U.S. economy and its employment structure have shifted. The population is getting older, and more education delays entry into the labor force. Because the labor force is growing more slowly and its requirements are evolving, creating a jobs boom in America will prove difficult—even with participation trophies.

My bold, that must result in a lot of angry boomers.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Emerging meme that Obamaite Dead Enders are spreading sedition against Trumopismo.

Rather like the rhetoric of Gulenists being under every rock.

 

[CrabbedOne]

 

[CrabbedOne]

All too plausible.

 

[CrabbedOne]

 

[J Ed]

I like this new thing where liberals simultaneously believe that there is no deep state and that Russian intelligence services are capable of installing their president of choice.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

can you fuck off with posting loads of tweets? Cheers.

 

[CrabbedOne]

I like this new thing where liberals simultaneously believe that there is no deep state and that Russian intelligence services are capable of installing their president of choice.

Err, that's another country's Deep State.

The CIA only really gets to bugger about with politics abroad in awful places like Italy and Russia. It's very prone to being stacked with Yes Men for domestic purposes as we saw under Bush II. The FBI operates domestically and I'd say its Director had far more influence on the election than anything the Russians did.

It's a bit daft equivalencing the US and Russian "Deep State's" as well. This is Alex Jones territory. Russia is actually a business run for vast profits by a jumped up former KGB Colonel and his thick necked chums. A multi-billion dollar grift Trump appears to admire.

For Turks invoking Deep State conspiracies is a very familiar authoritarian ploy. It basically allows the AKP to squash all institutional resistance from the military and judiciary. Of course such conspiracies are sometimes also real enough in Turkey as we saw in the last TAF centred mutiny. Erdogan is currently on track to accumulating the powers of a Sultan. The US isn't Turkey either; at least not yet.

 

[J Ed]

Ah so it does exist then

 

[hot air baboon]

Yeltsin was famously re-elected with extensive help by US spin doctors & the Russian kleptocracy was equally famously mid-wifed by US vulture capitalist "advisers" - Yeltsin begat Putin - wheels within wheels

How The West Helped Invent Russia’s Election Fraud: OSCE Whistleblower Exposes 1996 Whitewash - By Alexander Zaitchik and Mark Ames - The eXiled

With Russians on the streets protesting yet another fraud-riddled election, and Hillary Clinton lecturing the Kremlin on the evils of election fraud, we are reposting this important background story on Russian election fraud, and how the West, led by Hillary’s husband Bill, enabled and whitewashed Russia’s 1996 fraud-riddled, stolen elections, which assured that the hugely unpopular Boris Yeltsin, “the butcher of Chechnya” and the creator of Russia’s oligarchy, would remain in power for another term–thanks to the Chechens overwhelmingly “voting” “for” Yeltsin by an overwhelming 73% vote (of 1 million votes even though there were only an estimated 500,000 voting-aged people living in Chechnya at the time of the 1996 presidential elections). Yeltsin’s Western-backed victory allowed him to pick his own successor, Vladimir Putin, in 2000–and here we are today. Among the top whitewashers of 1996’s stolen elections was none other than Michael McFaul, President Obama’s nominee to become the new US Ambassador to Russia.

This article by Alexander Zaitchik and Mark Ames, about the West’s active complicity in Russian election fraud, in creating the template still used today by Putin, was first published in The eXile on November 30, 2007, on the eve of Russia’s 2007 Duma elections, the last time Russians voted in parliamentary elections until this past Sunday.

 

[TomUS]

That seems pretty spot on. I see a lot of my farmer friends on social media freaking out over the potential of his policies and the effect on grain prices. I suppose I should feel some sympathy for them, but I also know most of them voted for him.

The average Joe and Jane who voted for Trump and end up being harmed by his policies deserve no sympathy whatsoever.

 

[killer b]

The average Joe and Jane who voted for Trump and end up being harmed by his policies deserve no sympathy whatsoever.

although you've written The average Joe and Jane who voted for Trump and end up being harmed by his policies deserve no sympathy whatsoever, what it looks like to me is Four More Years! Four More Years!

 

[classicdish]

Who on the "left" has been calling for giving Milo a chance? Name names.

Does Laurie Penny count?

 

[DotCommunist]

Does Laurie Penny count?

thought that was weev and his nazi prison yoghurt

 

[redsquirrel]

nazi prison yoghurt

Is that a rather revolting euphemism?

 

[DotCommunist]

Is that a rather revolting euphemism?

lol no, the nazi weev ran a frozen yoghurt business in jail. OIr claimed to have.

 

[CrabbedOne]

The average Joe and Jane who voted for Trump and end up being harmed by his policies deserve no sympathy whatsoever.

Well it probably wasn't principally about economics but identity.

Conclusion

The 2016 campaign witnessed a dramatic polarization in the vote choices of whites based on education. In this paper, we have demonstrated that very little of this gap can be explained by the economic difficulties faced by less educated whites. Rather, most of the divide appears to be the result of racism and sexism in the electorate, especially among whites without college degrees. Sexism and racism were powerful forces in structuring the 2016 presidential vote, even after controlling for partisanship and ideology. Of course, it would be misguided to seek an understanding of Trump’s success in the 2016 presidential election through any single lens. Yet, in a campaign that was marked by exceptionally explicit rhetoric on race and gender, it is perhaps unsurprising to find that voters’ attitudes on race and sex were so important in determining their vote choices.

Whether the 2016 election will simply be an aberration or the beginning of a trend remains to be seen. However, there is reason to think that Trump’s strategy of using explicitly racist and sexist appeals to win over white voters may be followed again by candidates in future elections. After all, Valentino et al. (2016) show that there is no longer a price to be paid by politicians who make such explicit appeals. Explicit racist and sexist appeals appeared to cost Trump some votes from more educated whites, but it may have won him even more support among whites with less education. If Republicans see little prospect of winning over racial or ethnic minorities in the near future, they have two choices – moderate their appeals in order to restore their advantage among more educated white voters (even if it costs them some votes among less educated whites) or repeat the Trump strategy to maximize their support among less educated whites (even at the expense of winning large margins among college educated whites). As the norms governing political rhetoric appear to have largely been shattered in 2016, the latter strategy is at least as plausible as the former, and that may have significant consequences for the stability of American democracy.

Linky.

The racism was always there but I think a wider acceptance of narratives of white victimhood has changed its form a little. It's not hard to argue that there has been a decline in male status as feminism made slow advances. Lots of politely bottled up resentment uncorked by race baiting, pussy grabbing Trump. The sad thing is this schtick works and probably better in parts of Europe than the US.

 

[Ranbay]