steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
STOP THE COUNT
The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not
- Thread starter bimble
- Start date
STOP THE COUNT
Urban has an edit function, to correct typos.
taperoo2k
Well-Known Member
I wonder how that would translate into seats under first past the post?
I punched it into an electoral calculator. It would put things into a hung Parliament.
Labour 287 seats
Tory 128
Reform 106
Liberal Democrats 77
Green 4
SNP 16
A Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition would easily be able to form a coalition government
with a majority or a confidence and supply deal would be struck. Though as with any electoral calculator caveats apply (single poll with a small sample size, not a
uniform picture of the entirety of the UK). And people now know how to do tactical voting.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
26 months after posting this thread, perhaps worth taking stock of bimble 's OP?
- Well...I don't know about standing in every Parish in the land, but the refUKers did stand candidates in 609 of the 650 Parliamentary constituencies.
- I don't think there are any actual official MBGA hats but there are "Let's make Britain Great" caps in the party merch, though not in red or with the word "again". There are, of course, unofficial retailers selling red MBGA hats.
- In the July 2024 GE people did vote for them in significant numbers; 4,117,610 did so.
- Polling suggests that fury about the fact that immigration numbers are now at record highs after we 'took back control was a key driver of their electoral success and, of course, was exploited by the Farage rioters.
- The question of who would fund them did seem resolved until recently but now there has to be great doubt about whether or not they will get any money from Musk. Who knows if Banks may yet be tapped again?
- Will the refUKers do for the tories? An ongoing subsequent and unresolved point of contention on the thread. recent polling has seen them edge above the vermin into territory that would, if replicated in a future GE, very much harm the electoral prospects of the tories.
- The last question was what if they get actual big numbers? In a sense getting 4,117,610 votes, (600k > than the LDs) was "getting actual big numbers", although that translated into only 5 seats. So, yeah bimble , what if next time they get actual big numbers of seats?
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The anti semitism displayed by a few following the 7th October 23 attacks.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
would have to review what was the final straw but was generally shouted down on a lot of subjects.
her last few post so quite a bit of exasperation
Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
I guess best we can hope for is that they'll destroy themselves through infighting. Second best option is that they spit the rightwing vote at the next election to lock both them and the tories out of power.
Rebecca Riot
Well-Known Member
I've just been looking at our local Facebook page and one of the town councillors who contributes to the page every so often and who was elected on a Plaid ticket is now sporting a Cymru Reform avatar. I can't understand how someone could go from one party to the other as they're polls apart on policies.errr, NO
They might get a few seats, they won't win overall
Reform UK could win next Senedd election, says party spokesman
Reform's Wales spokesman says forming a Welsh government is "well within the realms of feasibility".www.bbc.co.uk
There are currently no plans to appoint a Welsh leader before the Senedd election, he says.
Instead, the party intends to keep the focus on Farage.
"Nigel is going to play a very big part in the Senedd campaign," said Lewis.
"He's far more popular than the leaders of the other parties in Wales.
"Our present working principle is that once we have a caucus in the Senedd, once we have our 20, 30, or hopefully 40 members in the Welsh Parliament they will then select a leader on day one.
"That may well change.
"It's absolutely right and proper that our candidate for prime minister in 2028 or 2029 has a big presence in the devolved elections in Wales and Scotland."
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
ElectionMapsUK has inputted their rolling poll tracker % numbers into Electoral Calculus and produced these figures (seats change to 2024 GE) :
and then mapped it (showing E&W; no refUKers in Scotland or NI AFAICS):
Bit of a marsh-based thing going on for the fans of Farage?
Rebecca Riot
Well-Known Member
The predicted Reform gain in SW Wales is Llanelli which sadly doesn't surprise me.
In 2023 the then Westminster government announced that they had done a deal with the owners of the Stradey Park Hotel to house 200 asylum seekers there without first informing the local MP or council (both Labour). Most of the staff at the hotel were laid off and all functions and weddings booked were cancelled. All this played straight into the hands of Reform who capitalised on the situation and I'm pretty sure the hard right were behind the mass protests that went on for weeks. In the end, the deal was scrapped but the damage was done and I reckon Reform picked up a lot more votes as a result of it.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not really, they're the spatial representation of the "user defined poll" function of the electoral calculus site. Though their MRP methodology might well have flaws, the output is not guesswork.
But it's always important to remember that such seat tallies and maps only represent a prediction based on one snapshot of polling that will almost certainly bear little relation to what happens at the next GE.
Farage is mad about 'pub banter' being taken away from him.
I am so sick of men like Farage treating women like shit and claiming it's just 'banter' and why can't those uptight bitches get a sense of humour. Also, I don't go to pubs to debate, I go to drink and hang out with friends. I guess all this 'look at me I go the pub' shite is to show how Down With The Working Classes he is.
Poot
My wife thinks I work too hard
I am sad that he'll never be a 19 year old woman working in a pub so he has zero idea of what he's talking about. And I'm sad that he gets to voice an opinion about it.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
on subject like these he should just be ignored
as all he is wanting is press attention
no one is stopping him chatting shit in pubs fuck he can got to wetherspoons up and down the country where the racist prick who owns the place encourages it
saying that No doubt this important and critical subject involves multiple interviews with the BBC and another appearance on question time
as all he is wanting is press attention
no one is stopping him chatting shit in pubs fuck he can got to wetherspoons up and down the country where the racist prick who owns the place encourages it
saying that No doubt this important and critical subject involves multiple interviews with the BBC and another appearance on question time
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a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
Online meeting to discuss the left's response to Reform, AND come up with action plans. How Does the Left Respond to the Rise of the Far Right?
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