CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's blog The Islamic State: Baqiya?
Shrinking but almost certainly remaining. Maintaining residual support and waiting to rise once more. There remain big problems of governance in the former Caliphate territory in Iraq and Syria. Even if they were eventually well managed IS would be difficult to eradicate. It's an organisation that literally aspires to be almost destroyed but endure till the last great battle of Judgement Day....
Nonetheless, presumptions that the Islamic State will vanish with territorial defeat are naïve. While Adnani's reference to the desert may seem vague, there are certainly large desert spaces in the border areas between Iraq and Syria (e.g. the Anbar-Deir az-Zor areas) where the Islamic State's remaining core leadership can operate and manoeuvre even if it loses all towns under its control. Prospects of the Coalition or others clearing out and securing these vast spaces remain very remote, and they thus constitute the true "fallback" for the Islamic State.
As far as the nature of operations is concerned, we already have models for what "post-Islamic State" looks like, which suggests the organisation will not die with loss of territory. In Iraq's eastern province of Diyala, for instance, the Islamic State has not controlled any towns for more than two years, yet there are constant reports of sleeper cells and security incidents like IED attacks, car bombings and attacks on security positions, with some areas having to be cleared out multiple times. In this case, there is no doubt that the Islamic State partly plays on sectarian fault lines in the province, undermining the Iranian-backed Badr-led security order.
Beyond Diyala, reports are emerging of the "return" of the Islamic State to areas where the organisation had lost territorial control such as Tikrit. Many of the problems here stem from general plagues in Iraq's present-day order that transcend sectarian boundaries, such as poor management of security checkpoints that allow would-be Islamic State bombers to pass through as well as widespread corruption, which might, for instance, allow real Islamic State operatives to escape from detention through bribing the local security forces. Though the Islamic State has recruited people from all over the world, personnel records recovered in Iraq show the organisation within that country remains thoroughly local in its manpower base, allowing personnel to blend into the population.
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