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The Islamic state

teqniq said:
IHS: Assad regime main target for ISIS in Syria - ARA News
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This is a bit odd, from the linked article above:

“If the Islamic State succeeds in capturing the Syrian government’s isolated and heavily contested garrison in Deir ez-Zor, the group would have a new major population centre from which to run the Caliphate,” Strack said. “The capture of Deir ez-Zor, the largest city in eastern Syria, could be a life-line for the group’s governance project beyond the loss of Mosul and Raqqa.”

“A lot of their administrators and bureaucrats now are beginning the process of leaving Raqqa and moving their operations further down river,” Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters in February.

“So they have definitely taken note of the fact that the end is near in Raqqa and we are seeing now an exodus of their leadership,” Davis said.
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But today the Daily Sabah (Turkish pro-government publication) gives the impression that Deir ez-Zor, has already fallen to ISIS

High-ranking executives of the Daesh terrorist group are withdrawing from Raqqa as the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) slowly advance toward their former bastion, U.S. defense officials announced. They are believed to have set up their new headquarters in Deir ez-Zor, located about 140 kilometers southeast of Raqqa, in anticipation of a decisive battle....
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I'd be inclined to go with the first bit of reportage if only because the guy who wrote it has pretty good track record for accuracy imo, either way it looks to be that IS have already written off Raqqa.
 
And in light of the above I can't help but speculate that the Turkish airstrikes on Kurdish positions may have been part of a Turkish strategy to buy IS some time, even if it isn't it seems that it may have produced that result.

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e2a

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On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 191, Apr 25, 2017
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There was a large advance in the western section of west Mosul, and very limited movement in the east. The Golden Division freed Tanak, which it fought over for almost a month. It is one of the largest neighborhoods in the city and is along the western edge. In the east the police inched ahead. It was still attacking the Old City along four axes and was said to have seized some streets in Bab al-Tob and Bab al-Jadid. The police recently restarted their operations in the district after a month long pause, but have only advanced a few meters.
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Grinding on.
 
Can't say I am surprised anymore. :facepalm:

Turkey-backed FSA sold Turkish armoured vehicles to Islamic State: military source - Kom News

According to a claim made in Turkish media on Wednesday, Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups sold Turkish armoured vehicles to the Islamic State (IS) group, during the Euphrates Shield Operation.

A report in the Birgun daily based on military sources said FSA groups given eight tanks and armoured vehicles to enter al-Bab in northern Syria sold or handed over some of these vehicles to the jihadist group....
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On ISW The Campaign for Mosul: March 2-April 28
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Turkey’s escalation of attacks on U.S. partner forces in northern Syria and northwest Iraq threaten anti-ISIS operations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated he would launch a new, Iraq phase of operation in Syria, Operation Euphrates Shield on April 4. The Turkish Air Force conducted airstrikes on positions held by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) affiliates near Sinjar in addition to Hasaka Province, eastern Syria on April 25. The Turkish airstrikes also hit a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) base near Sinjar, likely unintentionally. Turkey also pressured Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to redirect Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) from Tel Afar, a primarily Turkmen town west of Mosul by threatening action should the PMU seize Tel Afar. PM Abadi cut a deal with PMU elements to divert efforts from Tel Afar to villages southwest of Sinjar, near the Iraq-Syria border. PM Abadi’s decision reduced the threat of a Turkish-Iranian contest over Tel Afar that could have threatened the final phase of the Mosul operation. Turkish incursions in northern Iraq strain relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government and also detract from the Mosul campaign’s final phase.
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Turks aiming at cutting Rojava's Eastern supply line. They're pushing the PKK towards the IRGC and it's Iraqi militias. Something they may come to regret.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 193, Apr 27, 2017
There were no advances in west Mosul for a second day. Federal Police commander General Shakir Jawadat said that his forces were 300 meters from the Grand Mosque in the Old City, which was where Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate in 2014. The police have been that distance from the mosque for more than a month now however. The Golden Division let it be known that there were only four districts left to be liberated in the city. That’s roughly forty percent of the western half. The police have been stalemated in the Old City for weeks now. The Golden Division on the other hand seized most of the center of the city. It is likely consolidating its latest move into the Tanak neighborhood, the largest in the west.
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Also note people starving in IS held Mosul.
 
On War Is Boring Iraq and Syria Team Up to Take on Islamic State
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To be sure, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces advanced into parts of Deir Ezzor province in February 2017 as part of an ongoing U.S.-backed operation to seize Raqqa. However, that group’s primary focus is not directed at Deir Ezzor city for the time being.

Given this backdrop it is possible the Syrian regime, supplemented by Iranian-backed Shiite militias such as Hezbollah, will advance into Deir Ezzor, situated about 120 miles from their current positions in Homs province across a relatively sparsely populated area, in the near future.

There is also intermittent talk of Iraqi Shiite Hashd Al Shaabi paramilitaries entering Syria to continue their fight against the Islamic State after the Battle of Mosul comes to a conclusion. Iraqi Shiites have traveled to Syria to fight alongside the regime since the early stages of the war there.

The fact that American-made IQAF F-16s may well support an upcoming Syrian regime offensive into Deir Ezzor, alongside Russian air power, demonstrates that Baghdad’s foreign policy is becoming increasingly independent of Washington’s in the region, and may perhaps even be at fundamental odds with it in certain areas.
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That's got Iran's fingers all over it.
 
On Al Monitor How Iraq is planning to secure key border road
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Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades said in a statement released March 31, “The road connecting Iraq and Jordan is a strategic gateway allowing the US and forces seeking to control it to tighten their grip on Anbar and the potential Sunni region as per a US-Gulf plan.”

In the same vein, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq said,“the US security companies are spies for the US intelligence,, according to a March 30 statement by the group's military spokesman Jawad al-Tibawi. The movement headed by Qais al-Khazali called for resorting to alternative companies from Russia and Europe.

On April 9, Khazali said during a speech at Al-Qasim Green University in Babil, “When the Iraqi government commissions the security of the road connecting Baghdad, Anbar and the Jordanian borders to a US security company, this must not be taken lightly.”

He added, threateningly, “Iraq has a replenished army of 300,000 soldiers, a Ministry of Interior with 600,000 employees and two mobilization units — a popular and a tribal one. Does it really need a US security company to secure the road connecting its center to its west side?”
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US company called Olive backed up by 5K tribal fighters working on securing the roads to Terbil crossing. Naturally makes the IRGC's Beards itchy.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 194-195, Apr 28-29, 2017
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Al Mada reported there may be a split between Prime Minister Haider Abadi and the Hashd. Recently those forces moved from Tal Afar towards the Syrian border, seizing the Hatra district. The premier said nothing about this gain, when he regularly makes remarks about the latest victories. Al Mada speculated this was because the army’s 15th Division was supposed to accompany the Hashd, but didn’t. There have been differences between the Hashd and Baghdad before. The former has been increasingly frustrated by the fact that Abadi has not allowed them to take Tal Afar because of Turkish complaints. Still, the Hashd regularly coordinate with the Iraqi security forces, so more information will have to be reported to determine what happened.
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Hatra is South of Tal Afar.
 

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The new assessment, released as part of a monthly report, reveals the Pentagon is finding it difficult to determine how many innocent people are dying in conflict zones where there are few U.S. troops directing fire from the front lines and commanders rely instead on drone surveillance and reports from allies.

Col. Joe Scrocca, a U.S. military spokesman based in Baghdad, said the command’s analysts recognized “anomalies” after poring over data for several months. He said it led them to reexamine 396 reports of civilian casualties “to identify any errors or gaps in reporting.”

“We've been trying to improve the reporting process by making it more predictable and transparent every month,” Scrocca said.

Scrocca said the coalition’s two-person team investigating civilian casualties from airstrikes is conservative in its estimates, requiring confirmation from more than one source.
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The fired investigators, Robert Cole and Kristie King, said they uncovered evidence that Sallyport employees were involved in human trafficking for prostitution. Staff on base routinely flew smuggled alcohol onto the base in such high volumes that a plane once seesawed on the tarmac under the weight. Rogue militia stole enormous generators using flatbed trucks and a 60-foot crane, driving right past Sallyport security guards.

The trouble stretches to headquarters in Reston, Virginia, say the investigators and other ex-employees interviewed by AP. They say what they uncovered was not revealed to the U.S. government, which was footing the $686 million contracting bill, until early this year — after an auditor started asking questions.

The investigators were fired abruptly on March 12 — just two months ago — and immediately flown out of Iraq. They say they had been looking into timesheet fraud allegations and were set to interview company managers, whom they considered suspects.

"I feel like they got us out so quickly because they feel like we knew too much," King said in an interview. "When we finally got the idea that they were hiding all of the stuff from the U.S. government, it was mind-blowing."
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What happens in Balad stays in Balad.
 
bimble said:
This drone-filmed footage of the current state of western Mosul was on the tv a couple of days ago and it's haunting me. can only find this edited version. On the tv there were children laughing and waving at the camera towards the end. Apologies if its already been posted (and warning graphic content).
Exclusive drone footage of Mosul emerges - CNN Video
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Not liked as it's good, but that's rather harrowing footage. :(
 

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Yet how much do the big numbers of this complex war resonate with people away from the battlefield? Moreover, is there perhaps a general view that no matter how bad the metrics, they are somehow justified?

“The prevailing view in the United States,” says Chris Kolenda, “is that ISIS is a terrorist organisation which just needs to be eliminated and it’s unfortunate that there are civilian casualties in the process. Americans tend to believe that the ISIS cancer will metastasize if left unaddressed. Most believe that ISIS causes far more damage to civilians in Iraq and Syria and that ineffectual US military efforts, due to excessive restrictions, will prolong the war and place more civilians at risk of harm.”

Ordinary Iraqis and Syrians on the ground – who have already endured 1,000 days of airstrikes in the effort to defeat Islamic State – might disagree. For too many civilians, each new day brings the ominous sound of yet another air raid, once more putting them in fear of losing their homes, their loved ones and their own lives. It is a situation which we, far away from the battlefield, can barely begin to comprehend.
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Just for comparison I recall reading all the combat dead in Israeli-Arab wars amounted to 120K.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 199, May 3, 2017
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Despite earlier denials, Ninewa officials have finally admitted there is no plan to rebuild Mosul and Ninewa in general. When east Mosul was liberated in January some residents began complaining that they were getting little help from the authorities to rebuild. Ninewa officials assured them not only they, but Baghdad had a plan for reconstruction. Reuters talked with the deputy chairman of the Ninewa council who revealed the provincial government is still working on a five year agenda for rebuilding. More importantly he told Reuters there is no money for whatever they come up with. He complained that Baghdad had not given Ninewa adequate funds for its overall budget, and didn’t expect more to be coming.
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Taking Mosul without much of a plan for afterwards is a recipe for losing the post-IS peace once again.
 
In LMD Rivalries threaten in post-ISIS Mosul
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According to local security forces I interviewed in March and April, approximately 30-39 distinct armed groups — including elements of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) and Sunni tribal mobilisation forces — have established zones of operation within Mosul. These groups sometimes compete with city, provincial and federal security forces, particularly in terms of screening for suspected ISIS members and conducting counter-terror operations.

Such a fractious security environment has also handicapped local recovery efforts. For example, without clearly defined mandates or jurisdictions, some healthcare clinics in eastern Mosul have been robbed of vital supplies like intravenous fluid, bandages and medicines. As one physician concluded, ‘right now we are struggling to survive, even as we are bled [of resources] from all sides.’ Similar instances of theft in western neighbourhoods have been traced to ISIS-linked cells, which allegedly manage to smuggle medical equipment to wounded militants across the front lines.
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Civilian infrastructure wrecked. Reconstruction short of funds and chaotically administered. Residents left to dig their wells. This really does not bode well for Mosul after IS.
 
On Niqash.org After ISIS: Iraq’s Sunni Politicians Deeply Divided By Competing Visions For Future
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The disagreement between Iraq’s Sunnis has also reached religious circles now. Previously disputes tended to be limited to the political but recent manoeuvring by Sunni religious figures in the political arena has seen conflict arise here too.

Up until very recently, almost all the Sunni Muslim politicians had approved of the cleric who headed up the Sunni endowment – the endowments are bodies tasked with running and maintaining, respectively, Shiite or Sunni mosques and shrines and they are very important institutions within their own sectarian communities.

In 2015, the current Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi appointed a Sunni cleric, Abdul-Latif al-Hameem, to head the Sunni endowment. Al-Hameem was somewhat controversial as he had lived in Jordan since 2003, after he was accused of cooperating with former Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Al-Hameem had no real links to contemporary Sunni Muslim political forces though. However since his appointment he has started to become more political and to present himself as a potential candidate in upcoming elections. The existing Sunni Muslim politicians do not approve of this and some have been openly hostile towards al-Hameem in the local media. Other Sunni religious figures who have closer ties to political parties – such as Ahmad Hasan al-Taha, who heads an all-important Sunni Muslim religious council – have also been unsupportive of al-Hameem, after his political ambitions became more apparent.

But in the end, it is the Iraq’s ordinary Sunni Muslims who will pay for the current disarray. So many Sunni Muslim- majority areas have been impacted by the actions of the Islamic State group, so many locals have been displaced, killed or wounded and had their property destroyed. These civilians desperately need their politicians to represent them rather than fighting amongst themselves, in order to push forward the reconstruction and reconciliation that must happen.
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It's fairly commonplace to blame Iraq's dominant Shia Arab politicians for the countries problems. This does overlook the high levels of inclusion of Sunni Arab and Kurdish politicians in Baghdad's administration and how problematic as political actors they have been. They often represent their own people very poorly. The increasing fragmentation of the Sunni Arabs under often terrible leadership is perhaps the biggest problem the country has. It makes them very vulnerable to and IS revival.
 
On AP Iraq PM: No US combat troops to stay in Iraq after IS
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The U.S. official emphasized that discussions were in early stages and that “nothing has been finalized.” Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

In his statement, Haider al-Abadi emphasized that there are no foreign combat troops on Iraqi soil and that any American troops who stay on once IS militants are defeated will be advisers working to train Iraq’s security forces to maintain “full readiness” for any “future security challenges.”

While some U.S. forces are carrying out combat operations with Iraqi forces on and beyond front lines in the fight against IS, al-Abadi has maintained that the forces are acting only as advisers, apparently to get around a required parliamentary approval for their presence.
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Abadi has been pretty consistent in denying the need for US combat troops. Not a popular idea in Baghdad or Teheran. The Iraqi definition of "Advisor" here is as flexible as that in South Vietnam in the 60s.
 
On Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog Could you open a pharmacy in Islamic State territory?
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For those wishing to open a new pharmacy, licensing is required from the Islamic State, with the prospective investor needing to take an exam to demonstrate knowledge of pharmacy. The previously unseen documents below feature a sample exam issued by the health admin centre in Aleppo province in northern Syria. I have intentionally obscured most of the marking and answers on this sample exam paper obtained from al-Bab in north Aleppo within the Turkish-backed Euphrates Shield Syrian rebel operations that recaptured the town from the Islamic State. Have a go at the paper and see whether you yourself are competent enough to open a pharmacy in Islamic State-held territory. You may do better than the person who took this paper and only scored 18.5 out of 100.
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Another dream shattered!
 

Using kids as human ordinance is part of a pattern with IS in Iraq. This did happen in the last phase of the civil war but it wasn't as common. Suicide bombers were more often foreign adult males with Saudis being prominent. I guess that reflects a successful youth indoctrination program.
 

BAGHDAD (AP) — Just over 10 years ago, Qasim al-Araji was being arrested a second time by American forces in Iraq. The charges were serious: smuggling arms used to attack U.S. troops and involvement in an assassination cell at the height of sectarian violence that engulfed Iraq following the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Now, he heads of one of Iraq’s most powerful ministries.

With credentials that include training from Iranian special operators known as the Quds force and time spent as a guerrilla and militia commander, Iraq’s Interior Minister al-Araji is now trumpeting his respect for human rights and support for the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against the Islamic State group. But the forces he now commands have a long history of Shiite domination and abuse, factors that partially contributed to the rise in support for IS in Iraq.

Back in 2007, al-Araji was held by the United States for 23 months. He spent most of his captivity at Bucca prison, including long periods in solitary confinement.

Today, at the head of one of Iraq’s most powerful ministries, al-Araji laughs off questions about lingering hostility toward U.S. forces.

“That’s life,” he said in a recent interview with The Associated Press, his manner boisterous and unpolished as he shuttled between meetings at a small Interior Ministry office inside Baghdad’s highly fortified Green Zone. “I was their prisoner and now I meet with their ambassador.”
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The Baghdad Interior ministry has often been dominated by Iranian assets going all the way back to 06.
 
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