The fatality rate of Covid19
- Thread starter joe_infinity
- Start date
Azrael
circling Airstrip One
Yes, societies have been far too lax about influenza for far too long, accepting a high death toll and unchecked spread as facts of life, instead of pumping money into monitoring, and research on universal vaccines and broad-spectrum antivirals. Think we'll end up with a transformed attitude to disease at the end of this.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wouldnt even place all my weight on the sorts of numbers I post either. And most numbers I prefer come in the form of ranges with levels of confidence attached to them, rather than single numbers.
But planners have to plan, they are forced to make assumptions, and those sorts of numbers certainly explain the recent response.
But planners have to plan, they are forced to make assumptions, and those sorts of numbers certainly explain the recent response.
xes
F.O.A.D
Maybe the numbers are not speaking for themselves. Maybe their voice is being muffled through inability to test, pure overwhelming numbers, corruption in government, people testing negative a bunch of times before they test positive and a host of other reasons.
All of the messages that came from doctors and nurses in hard hit areas have been the same. This is FAR more contagious than they were told and it is FAR more deadly than they were told. And one more note....STAY INSIDE! This ain't the fucking snuffles. (like my boss still thinks)
Believe them, they have lived, are living or are about to live it. They've tried to warn the world time and time again. It's not just the elderly, it's not just those with comorbidities. It's taking people out with perfectly strong immune systems.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
This ^ is directly contradicted by the director of the German National Health Institute, when he says that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. (see here - )
That is a very clear case of correlation/causation fallacy, employed in a way that is guaranteed to artificially inflate the death-rate statistic for covid 19
He also claims that the average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions.
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joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
So why is there no societal lockdown every flu season?
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Because people get it every year and do build up some immunity. Nobody has immunity to covid 19.
There's no lockdown, and shouldn't be, but maybe employers shouldn't take such a cavalier attitude to making people turn up to work. Certainly the flu jab should be made available for everyone.
bimble
floofy
Do you think these doctors are.. mistaken?
They reckon deaths are being under recorded.
Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know
“The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.
xes
F.O.A.D
Because every flu season is not the first wave of a category 5 pandemic.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
This ^ is incorrect
Nobody has immunity to covid19 because it is a new strain
Equivalently - nobody has immunity to flu every new flu season, because flu mutates into a new strain every year. Immunity only works for the previous year's strain.
In this specific sense, there is no difference whatsoever between flu and coronavirus, both mutate into new strains on a yearly basis
So you have not explained why there is no lockdown during each year's flu season, is there an explanation? Or is it, as i am starting to think, inexplicable?
bimble
floofy
Hi Joe.
Do you think that this happens every year with flu too? Or that perhaps all these doctors & nurses were in their 80s?
www.theguardian.com
Or do you think maybe possibly it is you who is wrong and not the whole rest of the world.
Do you think that this happens every year with flu too? Or that perhaps all these doctors & nurses were in their 80s?
'As if a storm hit': more than 40 Italian health workers have died since crisis began
Majority of those infected during early stages in the north when protective equipment lacking
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
Again here ^ we see extrapolated projection into the unknown future, to justify panic and overreaction to a perfectly normal situation, = mild seasonal illness, winter sniffles.
So the reasoning is: covid19 * might * become vastly more serious in the future, so we should undergo total societal lockdown now in the present to mitigate the harm it will cause.
Similar to the 'asteroid bunker' style thinking, we * might * get hit by an asteroid tomorrow, so we should all bury ourselves in bunkers to mitigate the harm that the impact will cause.
Is that right? Is the covid19 panic lockdown based on extrapolated future projections?
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
It's not flu ffs.
And, tbh if H5N1 bird flu had arrived on the scale feared a couple years ago with sustained human to human transmission there would almost certainly have been a lockdown yes. Because it killed over 50% of everyone who caught it and nobody had immunity.
And, tbh if H5N1 bird flu had arrived on the scale feared a couple years ago with sustained human to human transmission there would almost certainly have been a lockdown yes. Because it killed over 50% of everyone who caught it and nobody had immunity.
bimble
floofy
you are just nuts. never mind.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
And lol I'm sure people could get it every year but do you really want hundreds of thousands of deaths and temporary morgues springing up every year until enough people are immune, while the hospitals are so swamped that even if you have a broken leg you wont get seen?
Supine
Newt Member
Joe, are you trying to be an idiot or a troll?
There is plenty of good science reported as to why covid is more serious than flu. Read some peer reviewed sources. And yes, the lock down is based on future projections. Which can be seen for real in countries like Italy who are further ahead than us in their epidemic.
There is plenty of good science reported as to why covid is more serious than flu. Read some peer reviewed sources. And yes, the lock down is based on future projections. Which can be seen for real in countries like Italy who are further ahead than us in their epidemic.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
The NHS struggles to cope with an average flu season ffs. And it's not the flu vs COVID-19, it's the flu AND COVID-19. People aren't going to stop getting and dying from the flu
In any normal year, there are always going to be a small handful of different viruses floating around (coronavirus, rhinovirus and influenza among others) causing these kinds of mild seasonal sniffles and a small proportion of deaths in elderly and sick people.
This year is no different to any normal year, ie a small number of mild infectious illnesses doing the rounds in society
The only thing that is different this year, as far as I can tell, is the total worldwide hysteria, panic, and lockdown. That has never happened before
klang
klang
I used to play that piece when I studied the cello but never really nailed it. A real finger breaker!
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Lol dont cut yourself on that edge.
klang
klang
Jesus.
Wtc is wrong with you?
Covid 19 is an unknown.
Nobody can say how many will die but without the measures taken so far this would have spread like wildfire. It may still in certain parts of the world.
It's an unknown quantity. And it has the potential to kill millions in a few weeks.
If you cant see the danger then you're either blinkered or really thick.
Wtc is wrong with you?
Covid 19 is an unknown.
Nobody can say how many will die but without the measures taken so far this would have spread like wildfire. It may still in certain parts of the world.
It's an unknown quantity. And it has the potential to kill millions in a few weeks.
If you cant see the danger then you're either blinkered or really thick.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
I have quoted a number of sources which directly contradict the assertion that covid19 is more serious than flu
This is what I suspected
Spring is rapidly approaching, cold and flu season are coming to an end, so it seems strange to use past trends in Italy as a guide for projecting what future trends are going to be like elsewhere.
The whole approach to reasoning and logic in this area seems so loose and carefree, as if everybody just * wants * covid19 to be some super serious threat that justifies closing down the whole world, and not just a regular bog-standard unremarkable seasonal mild cough.
Nevermind the evidence, just PANIC and buy lots of toilet paper!
