If soneone handed you a packet of 100 sweets. and told you 6 of them were poisoned and if you ate them you'd die.
Would you take the risk of eating any of them?
Covid 19 is deadly for a significant percentage of the population.
You surely get that?
The fatality rate of Covid19
- Thread starter joe_infinity
- Start date
If soneone handed you a packet of 100 sweets. and told you 6 of them were poisoned and if you ate them you'd die.
Would you take the risk of eating any of them?
Covid 19 is deadly for a significant percentage of the population.
You surely get that?
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
I think "plucked from his sphincter" might be the answer.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
This ^ is based on extrapolated projection into the future, im talking about present observations.
For example i read recently that 28000 people died of flu in England last flu season
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
On balance, one not yet peer reviewed paper doesn't really outweigh an increasing stream of bodies does it?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No. That was 2014/15, the worst year in recent history. The annual number varies hugely between that and just a couple of thousand. This has the potential to be about as bad as a bad flu or something much worse than that. There is little chance now, really, of it being less bad than a bad flu.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
That depends on how many bodies, compared to the corresponding number of bodies from flu
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
Again this ^ is extrapolated projection into the unknown future
As it currently stands now, covid19 is statistically less bad than a very mild flu.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
oh god you're an idiot. Yes it is projection into the future from the available data. kinell. It's not over yet - 200 people more or less died of this yesterday in the UK. Today, that figure will probably be higher.
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
I think I read somewhere that the average number of deaths per year in the UK from seasonal flu is 600, although there has been a spike since 2014
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
So you're comparing an established, centuries-old virus with a brand new one? That seems pretty dumb.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
No, it was less than 2,000. It varies a lot from season to season, and 2018/19 was less severe than is typical.
The 28,000 figure probably relates to 2014/15, which was really bad, and you've seen it misreprented as 'the most recent data'. I would guess that sort of thing goes on a lot in certain circles.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
According to the researcher Stephen McIntyre (see here - ) there are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week in the US from pneumonia, and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19.
Remember my point here is the comparison between the societal lockdown versus the near total absence of protective measures to stop people getting flu...
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
oh ffs. There are currently around 800 deaths per day in Italy from c19, with a population one fifth of the size of the US (and that's almost certainly less than the true figure). Multiply that by 35 to give a comparable figure to your one there.
While I don't think it's right to call this a catastrophe yet, the idea that it's just nothing is absurd.
While I don't think it's right to call this a catastrophe yet, the idea that it's just nothing is absurd.
There is a flu vaccine every year that is generally pretty well matched to the predicted flu type for that year.
The people who are advised to get the flu vaccine benefit from it and its protection..
There is no such protection with coronavirus / covid 19.
So all of those who are high risk are really wide open to infection and death.
Along with many others who just dont manage to fight it off.
Not sure what you really want to know?
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
Neither flu nor corona are 'new'. They are both ancient species of virus which mutate into new strains every year. Coronavirus comes from the same group of viruses that have always caused the common cold.
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Covid-19 is new, which is the term you were using until you wanted to make a different point. You knob.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
Then we both agree on this key point - that the current mass-catastrophising about covid19 is based purely on alarmist extrapolation into the future. I am comparing this to the 'asteroid bunker' type of thinking i mentioned earlier...
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Know what would have virtually guaranteed it turning into a catastrophe everyhwere? Putting someone like you in charge.
Look up 'exponential growth'.
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
lol @ that analogy - if extrapolation of an asteroid's path showed that it would hit the Earth, you'd call it catastrophising too?
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
Covid19 is not new, it is merely a new strain of a pre-existing virus species (the same species behind the common cold).
This years flu strain is also, equivalently, a new strain of a pre-existing virus species.
In this specific sense, covid19 is no different from flu, both influenza and coronavirus mutate into new strains every year, that is why last year's flu vaccine doesn't work this year, you need to get re-immunised every year
Covid19 is no more 'new' than the common cold
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yay! Now we're getting lectured on biology. 
Thanks Joe. You've actually cheered me up a bit this afternoon. I needed a laugh.
Thanks Joe. You've actually cheered me up a bit this afternoon. I needed a laugh.
The WHO doesnt call something a pandemic unless it fills certain criteria.
Covid 19 fulfills the criteria of a dangerous contageous and deadly disease with no treatment. It spreads relatively easily and is successful in its spread.
It's not lethal enough to kill all hosts which means it will spread even further. So if someone has high blood pressure, roughly 40 % of the population, then they are at a higher risk of complications from this virus. Same with those of us who have diabetes, kidney disease, low immunity, heart problems, lung problems and are part of the older generation.
Covid 19 fulfills the criteria of a dangerous contageous and deadly disease with no treatment. It spreads relatively easily and is successful in its spread.
It's not lethal enough to kill all hosts which means it will spread even further. So if someone has high blood pressure, roughly 40 % of the population, then they are at a higher risk of complications from this virus. Same with those of us who have diabetes, kidney disease, low immunity, heart problems, lung problems and are part of the older generation.
joe_infinity
Well-Known Member
The statistics demonstrate very clearly that the infection rate of covid19 is nowhere near exponential, and is actually only half that of flu.
Yet, the world does not grind to a halt every flu season.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The common cold is short-hand for a wide array of very different viruses. Some of these are coronaviruses, and they are thought to make up somewhere between 25-35% of the illnesses we call the common cold.
This pandemic virus is a betacoronavirus. Two of the four existing known endemic human coronaviruses that we experience seasonally are betacoronaviruses. But these are from lineage A. SARS and SARS-Cov-2 (the current pandemic virus) are from lineage B (sarbecovirus).
Currently it is far more appropriate to compare the new virus to SARS than to the other coronaviruses that we experience seasonally. Maybe that impression will change over time, just dont know.
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Do you realise how stupid you're making yourself look?
It absolutely is new.
Hence the Novel virus title.
Are you just trolling for kicks?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Do Italy and Spains hospitals normally overflow?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Oh god elbows. You and your facts. 
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
Apart from the exponential part of the growth in cases, sure.
