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The fatality rate of Covid19

Actually, just to correct myself, I think it is a catastrophe already in Italy and Spain. Sorry for giving the impression that I was downplaying the crises there. It isn't yet a worldwide catastrophe.
 
joe_infinity said:
According to the researcher Stephen McIntyre (see here - ) there are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week in the US from pneumonia, and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19.

Remember my point here is the comparison between the societal lockdown versus the near total absence of protective measures to stop people getting flu...
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Thanks for posting a useful twitter link from a well known climate change denier :cool:
 
joe_infinity said:
But if this study turns out to be accurate, meaning that Covid19 is less deadly (in addition to being less infectious) than flu, what would this say about the societal lock-down?

It seems to me that the lock-down is based on the assumption (which is now challenged) that covid19 is more deadly than flu.
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I would imagine it's based primarily on transmission rate. That's to prevent an Italy situation of flooded hospital beds and no resources.
 
joe_infinity said:
According to the researcher Stephen McIntyre (see here - ) there are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week in the US from pneumonia, and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19.

Remember my point here is the comparison between the societal lockdown versus the near total absence of protective measures to stop people getting flu...
Click to expand...

You fucking twat. Citing a climate change dening, mining copmpany dircector.

Fuck off you cunt
 
Know I'm late to this but basically this joe dickhead could be right as long as no more people die from any cause whatsoever between now and december 31st 2020?
 
joe_infinity said:
Again this ^ is extrapolated projection into the unknown future




As it currently stands now, covid19 is statistically less bad than a very mild flu.
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well, when I started nervously looking at Worldometer a few days ago the daily deaths from CV19 lagged behind seasonal flu, mothers during birth , HIV/AIDS and malaria. Now it's overtaken each of them.
 
I've been watching this site with interest EURO MOMO that monitors all-cause death rate across most European countries. As stated below their figures are a few weeks behind so are just starting to show the increase in Italy.

Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality in Europe.

The number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.

Note concerning COVID-19 related mortality as part of the all-cause mortality figures reported by EuroMOMO

Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.

The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.

Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19
Click to expand...

Multicountry-zscore-Total (wk12).png
Pooled-number (wk12).png
 
If COVID-19 is really 'less bad than the flu' that just proves that people should be taking the flu fucking seriously rather than this 'Actually the mortality rate is 0' dogshit.
 
frogwoman said:
If COVID-19 is really 'less bad than the flu' that just proves that people should be taking the flu fucking seriously rather than this 'Actually the mortality rate is 0' dogshit.
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Looking up the figures on flu, I was surprised by the huge variations by year. When the docs get the vaccination wrong, which does happen, it costs thousands of lives. Just never makes the papers.
 
This Italian virologist Giulio Tarro is saying here (Interview to the Virologist Giulio Tarro:) that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
 
joe_infinity said:
This Italian virologist Giulio Tarro is saying here (Interview to the Virologist Giulio Tarro:) that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
Click to expand...
Somebody somewhere else said something different.
 
frogwoman said:
If COVID-19 is really 'less bad than the flu' that just proves that people should be taking the flu fucking seriously rather than this 'Actually the mortality rate is 0' dogshit.
Click to expand...

I agree with this ^, the key issue here is the massive inconsistency between the way society normally responds to seasonal infectious illnesses like cold and flu, compared to how it is responding to Covid19. It is inexplicable.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Looking up the figures on flu, I was surprised by the huge variations by year. When the docs get the vaccination wrong, which does happen, it costs thousands of lives. Just never makes the papers.
Click to expand...

Its not just a question of the vaccine. Some years feature epidemics and some dont, and although vaccination affects that picture its far from the only factor. Some seasons H1N1 dominates (these days the H1N1 is an evolution from what was originally the 2009 swine flu pandemic, before 2009 it was a previous strain of H1N1), some years its H3N2. H3N2 (which has been with us since the 1968 pandemic) often has nastier outcomes. Vaccine issues can be part of that story too, eg vaccines to protect against H3N2 havent been working that well and this has been acknowledged more in recent years.

Even without the labelling of this chart it would have been posible to guess that the years with higher mortality were seasons where H3N2 dominated.

Screenshot 2020-03-27 at 18.29.40.png
(from the most recent UK flu report. Note that at the moment we are starting this pandemic from a low point in terms of mortality, likely in part because the flu season here was very early this winter). https://assets.publishing.service.g...al_influenze_report_19_March_2020_week_12.pdf
 
When was the last time the flu swamped hospitals like we've seen with this?
When did the flu last shut half the freaking world!

China did not shut down 1/10 of the worlds population because 3000 or so people died of something that is not any where near as bad as the flu. That's ludicrous.

Look at the worlds reaction, look at the numbers. World reaction. Numbers. Perhaps it's possible that the numbers are wrong, and for all sorts of reasons, not just conspiranoid ones.
 
joe_infinity said:
I agree with this ^, the key issue here is the massive inconsistency between the way society normally responds to seasonal infectious illnesses like cold and flu, compared to how it is responding to Covid19. It is inexplicable.
Click to expand...

If you keep ignoring posts asking whether it is normal to have hospitals overflowing and extra capacity setup in conference centres then of course there is much you may find inexplicable.
 
elbows said:
Its not just a question of the vaccine. Some years feature epidemics and some dont, and although vaccination affects that picture its far from the only factor. Some seasons H1N1 dominates (these days the H1N1 is an evolution from what was originally the 2009 swine flu pandemic, before 2009 it was a previous strain of H1N1), some years its H3N2. H3N2 (which has been with us since the 1968 pandemic) often has nastier outcomes. Vaccine issues can be part of that story too, eg vaccines to protect against H3N2 havent been working that well and this has been acknowledged more in recent years.

Even without the labelling of this chart it would have been posible to guess that the years with higher mortality were seasons where H3N2 dominated.

View attachment 203645
(from the most recent UK flu report. Note that at the moment we are starting this pandemic from a low point in terms of mortality, likely in part because the flu season here was very early this winter). https://assets.publishing.service.g...al_influenze_report_19_March_2020_week_12.pdf
Click to expand...
Yes, sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that the variation was all down to the vaccine, more that this is the scale of what is at stake when trying to get the vaccine right.
 
joe_infinity said:
This Italian virologist Giulio Tarro is saying here (Interview to the Virologist Giulio Tarro:) that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
Click to expand...

Maybe you should look at the maths?
Take Italy today.
9,134 dead out of 80 539 cases .

That's 11% of those who had covid 19..dead.


Like I said before. If you were offered a bag of sweets. 100 sweets. And told that 1 of the sweets was poisonous, would you risk eating them?

I think you are being deliberately stupid for the sake of provoking others.
So I am out of you little pathetic thread.

I hope you stay well.
 
Sugar Kane said:
Maybe you should look at the maths?
Take Italy today.
9,134 dead out of 80 539 cases .

That's 11% of those who had covid 19..dead.


Like I said before. If you were offered a bag of sweets. 100 sweets. And told that 1 of the sweets was poisonous, would you risk eating them?

I think you are being deliberately stupid for the sake of provoking others.
So I am out of you little pathetic thread.

I hope you stay well.
Click to expand...
And many of the cases still to work through the illness to whatever end. 3 times the deaths in Italy than in China, in half the time. With the density of the cities in China. And people actually think that only Wuhan got blitzed? It would have spread round China as it's doing in every country.
 
xes said:
Look at the worlds reaction, look at the numbers. World reaction. Numbers.
Click to expand...

This ^ is precisely what I am getting at, the enormous discrepancy between the numbers, vs the world's reaction.

Compare:
28,000 people die of flu in one recent flu season in England =====> No kind of lockdown whatsoever, world hardly reacts

with:
a few hundred covid19 deaths in England =========> total societal lockdown, world goes crazy

The numbers speak for themselves, this discrepancy between flu and covid19 is utterly mysterious
 
xes said:
And many of the cases still to work through the illness to whatever end. 3 times the deaths in Italy than in China, in half the time. With the density of the cities in China. And people actually think that only Wuhan got blitzed? It would have spread round China as it's doing in every country.
Click to expand...
No not necessarily. It hasn't spread around Hong Kong or Singapore or Taiwan. South Korea successfully stamped on their initial outbreak. China's a very big place, and it had big hotspots, while other places were shut down early in the cycle, and South Korea shows how that can work. Test, trace, isolate, and with the might of the Chinese state driving it.
 
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