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The Covid Inquiry

Unless BBC articles become obvious to me on their front page, I havent got time to look elsewhere in the press to see what they are and are not bothering to report from the inquiry. I'm just too busy watching or reading the sessions myself.

So can anyone help me out, have you seen any press reports that covered the following from yesterdays evidence session:

Its in relation to a letter Professor Graham Medley, the chair of the SAGE modelling group that we were talking about earlier, wrote to Vallance on 17th April 2020:

"Consequently my reading of the situation is that we have widespread ongoing transmission in the health and social care systems. Hospital and community health and social care appear to be driving transmission, and potentially at an increasing rate."

Then you make this rather striking observation:

"In effect, this is the opposite of shielding -- vulnerable are being preferentially infected."
 
This BBC report of Fergusons evidence today focuses on stuff people would have expected from him, sounding the alarm and being associated with stronger policies:


eg:

By 10 March he said he was "extremely concerned" about the latest data. He told the inquiry he had been "frustrated" that some government officials had not "comprehended the figures".

"There was a lack of urgency, let's put it that way," he said.

He emailed Ben Warner, a data scientist brought in to Downing Street by Dominic Cummings, asking him to make sure the prime minister was shown graphs with projections of between 4,000 and 6,000 deaths a day "under the strategies being considered".

"This event is in the natural-disaster category, and the cure (eg massive social distancing, shutdowns) could be worse than the disease," he said in the email.

Asked why he sent the message, Prof Ferguson said: "It felt uncomfortable, but at the time it felt like it needed to be said. I was increasingly concerned about this disconnect between the numbers we were actually presenting, and the reality of what that would actually look like."

However I watched the whole session and the previous witness, who was also a modeller from the same Uni group as Ferguson, showed a different side. One where Ferguson had previously to that date in March been negative about those who tried to model a different approach, one that involved suppression of the virus. And how Ferguson had back then gone on about economic damage and tried to restrict the SAGE modelling subgroup to only coming up with stuff that fitted with what sort of approach it was assumed the government wanted to take.

Other parts of his evidence session also revealed that he was one of those who thought banning mass gatherings wouldnt make a big difference.

His position was complex and clearly evolved over time, but I dont think he deserved to be thought of as Mr Lockdown until later, he doesnt deserve that credit and he was very much a part of the old orthodox approach until that original plan went in the bin. His warning of March 10th was still likely important though, as a lot of other other recent evidence involves an infuriating lack of people shouting about the horror loudly enough, there was a lot of sleep-walking into doom and understated, dont rock the boat messages from scientific advisors to government. Not helped by the fact that 'SAGE minutes' arent proper minutes at all, which has always been obvious since they were first published, but has been underlined by Ferguson and some others in recent evidence sessions.
 
The evidence for today hasnt been properly published yet but I took some screenshots of the live feed at the time.

Here are some examples of Ferguson ending up being a bit of a gatekeeper for the original shit plan, when discussing this with the other modeller, Steven Riley, who gave evidence before Ferguson and who wanted to present a more radical scenario based on stringent measures. Note that these are on the same day and the day after Fergusons warning that the BBC article mentions.

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It probably goes without saying that from those brief glimpses behind the scenes, and todays evidence sessions as a whole, I'm a much bigger fan of Steven Riley than Neil Ferguson. Especially because Ferguson warned others off from talking about policies while being quite happy to spout all sorts of narrow economic assumptions himself. It was very good to see that by contrast Riley recognised early that 'reactive economic lockdown' would be even worse than the economic consequences of proactively locking down.

I'm also happy that some within the system probably recognised the merits of Steven Riley, because these days he works at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
 
There was a notorious meeting with the PM, the chancellor, some decent people and a bunch of scumbag let it rip shitheads in September 2020 when lockdown was being resisted.

Whatsapp messages between the non-shitheads has been presented to the inquiry today. They were talking to eachother during the meeting, when listening to others. It includes comments such as 'who is this fuckwitt?'

and

Dr Death the Chancellor

More on this later of course.
 
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To put the Dr Death the Chancellor comment in context, including its source, when this is no doubt discussed later, the following background about a recent period of someones career will be required:


In 2019 McLean was appointed as Chief Scientific Adviser to the Ministry of Defence, the first woman to be appointed to the post.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 she attended meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and was deputy to Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA). Together with Professor Graham Medley she co-chaired the SAGE sub-committee Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O). She also contributed to some of the government's media briefings.

In 2023 the Cabinet Secretary announced that McLean had been selected by the Prime Minister as the new Government Chief Scientific Adviser after an open competition, to succeed Sir Patrick Vallance. McLean is the first woman to be appointed to this post.
 
This has already been posted on the Sunak thread an the pandemic forum post about module 2, but will stick it here too for completeness.

Reporting on the Dr Death thing....

So far they only have the idea that it was Eat Out To Help Out which caused her to give him that label, but I suspect it was other stuff he was saying in that meeting too, which we havent heard about yet.


 
I did see on the news this inquiry is still ongoing and you do realize elbows it will take longer than the pandemic itself to report, if you're planning to follow it all? 😏 And I'm sure "lessons will be learned" of course at the end.

On a more serious note it does seem like there will be some minor details will improved as a result, but the overall way we handle a curved ball event in the world won't be as the inquiry is going into fine details and not looking at the bigger picture of how you deal with such events.
 
I did see on the news this inquiry is still ongoing and you do realize elbows it will take longer than the pandemic itself to report, if you're planning to follow it all? 😏 And I'm sure "lessons will be learned" of course at the end.

On a more serious note it does seem like there will be some minor details will improved as a result, but the overall way we handle a curved ball event in the world won't be as the inquiry is going into fine details and not looking at the bigger picture of how you deal with such events.
I can't answer for elbows, who knows far more about all this than any of us and will have a very clear idea how long all this will take - but you do realise that the inquiry is modular, and that each module will be reported on separately?
 
I can't answer for elbows, who knows far more about all this than any of us and will have a very clear idea how long all this will take - but you do realise that the inquiry is modular, and that each module will be reported on separately?
Yes I have seen that and the modules are spaced out which prolongs it, but even so already any public or media interest in this has evaporated unless there's some partygate like revelation.
 
The media are interested in the soap opera aspects, eg when someone known in public is revealed to have said something in particular. They also pay attention to certain failings.

I wont be covering every module in the same depth as I am for the first two, thats for sure. At any moment I might run out of steam or time, but for now I've been able to watch it all, though I havent read all the written submissions.

Whether the inquiry comes up with useful conclusions in terms of the 'big picture' depends what you have in mind when you mention the big picture. Its not going to change the global picture and global health regulation structures. Its not going to wipe away neoliberalism and all the flawed responses that happen due to neoliberalism. And there will be some UK-specific findings that nobody then acts on properly, though I wont prejudge quite what those turn out to be.

Certain mistakes wont happen again while everyone relevant who lived through this pandemic is still on the scene. Some could easily happen again due to shit priorities, underfunding etc. Shit politics wont go away either, eg we didnt even apply the 'act early' lessons of wave 1 to wave 2. The background health of the nation wont magically improve in the years ahead. And if you want to stop the deadliest side of this sort of pandemic you need to put lots of spare capacity into the health and social care sectors, and have way better hospital etc infection control resources and protocols than we have.

But even if the establishment fail to improve much in various key areas, huge chunks of the public learnt a lot in the pandemic and will be better prepared to act appropriately if a virus with a similar or worse degree of risk arrives in future.
 
The media are interested in the soap opera aspects, eg when someone known in public is revealed to have said something in particular. They also pay attention to certain failings.

I wont be covering every module in the same depth as I am for the first two, thats for sure. At any moment I might run out of steam or time, but for now I've been able to watch it all, though I havent read all the written submissions.

Whether the inquiry comes up with useful conclusions in terms of the 'big picture' depends what you have in mind when you mention the big picture. Its not going to change the global picture and global health regulation structures. Its not going to wipe away neoliberalism and all the flawed responses that happen due to neoliberalism. And there will be some UK-specific findings that nobody then acts on properly, though I wont prejudge quite what those turn out to be.

Certain mistakes wont happen again while everyone relevant who lived through this pandemic is still on the scene. Some could easily happen again due to shit priorities, underfunding etc. Shit politics wont go away either, eg we didnt even apply the 'act early' lessons of wave 1 to wave 2. The background health of the nation wont magically improve in the years ahead. And if you want to stop the deadliest side of this sort of pandemic you need to put lots of spare capacity into the health and social care sectors, and have way better hospital etc infection control resources and protocols than we have.

But even if the establishment fail to improve much in various key areas, huge chunks of the public learnt a lot in the pandemic and will be better prepared to act appropriately if a virus with a similar or worse degree of risk arrives in future.
There is a huge teasing fascination with the behind the scenes theatre of BoJo/Cummings/Carrie/Hancock but from what I recently saw of this module it doesn't seem to apply the same level of detailed interest in Sage and their internal processes

I can't believe for one minute Sage were as unified in their view on things as first appear given their numbers. I recently noted that the decision to 'terrify the public' was attributed to ministers and not Sages advice, but that wasn't my memory of the time.

There is a risk in the inquiry being done now is most of the ministers involved in early 2020 are now gone from front line politics and putting more scrutiny on them rather than their advisors (who are still in the careers) will unintentionally skew the findings.

My concept of the big picture is how you navigate a curved ball issue in an equitable, considered and ultimately pragmatic way to minimize overall damage.
 
Bollocks, large amounts of inquiry time have been dedicated to SAGE and other non-politician parts of government/government advisors, especially in the last week or so when members of the SAGE modelling subgroup and behavioural subgroup have been giving evidence.

SAGE put out consensus statements, there is no claim that the individuals on SAGE were unified in their views, and this has been discussed in the last week or so.

The 'SAGE minutes' were never detailed minutes, and this has also come up multiple times in the inquiry recently because it means those minutes dont offer substantial info about individual members beliefs at different moments in time.

'Terrifying the public' stuff means different things to different people, largely dependant on their own views of other pandemic detail. For example if someone is a shithead who didnt think we should ever have locked down, then they probably did not like the results of epidemic modelling, and might consider all of that to be part of 'project fear'. And since a lot of modelling went through SAGE, and plenty of SAGE members were well qualified to talk about epidemic reality, exponential growth etc, SAGE would be associated with that stuff.

We certainly saw evidence this week of Hancock saying stupid things about employing fear in a crude way when the Alpha variant arrived. We also heard from behavioural scientists who gave evidence that they did not recommend the ratcheting up of fear, they recommended consistent messaging and trying to help the public get a proper sense of personal risk. They also pointed out that they werent the source of crap March 9th & March 12th 2020 Chris Whitty comments about not acting early because people will get fatigued, a claim that was not supported by evidence or preexisting beliefs of behavioural scientists.

Its also worth noting that SAGE was not the only source of advice. There was at least one other team of behavioural 'experts', within government. We've seen some evidence from the non-SAGE behavioural group but havent heard from them directly yet, though I expect we will later. And the inquiry has also heard how SAGE was placed in the front line, because their consensus output was made public while other sources of advice and policy did not have their stuff published, so were not visible in the same way, were not blamed by the right-wing anti-lockdown press in the same way.

If what yopu consider to be 'terrifying the public' was all the stuff I've always referred to as changing mood music during the pandemic, then it is ridiculous to attribute all of that to SAGE. It was all the usual mechanisms at work - the messaging people within government, how that stuff interfaces with the media, all the usual forms of propaganda etc etc. SAGE were just the source of certain data and advice that these other entities might have seized upon. It wasnt SAGE that told all the media that 'this is the week to really start show people seriously ill in hospital', to give a very crude example, and none of their advice involved the ratcheting up and down of the mood music in the way that actually happened during the pandemic. And its also worth noting that even the anti-lockdown press fell into line at the very worst moments of the pandemic, whoever was directing that sort of messaging could still rely on those media entities playing their part in statecraft during the height of the national emergency. If there is an obvious area that this inquiry isnt looking into, its the media and certain sensitive state propaganda techniques.

We've also heard how SAGE was not the source of the other stuff, such as economic advice, which should be weighed up by decision makers when trying to strike the right balance. Views vary as to whether that component should have been included in SAGE itself or been left to other entities to provide that side of the advice. But its also been discussed that SAGE was made to do far more in this pandemic than such a structure was really intended for. In many countries what you normally have is a decent public health authority which would be the source for a lot stuff. But what we had was the hollowed out, weak and unscalable Public Health England, so SAGE ended up having to do loads of stuff that they should have done if PHE had been larger and better funded before the pandemic. And PHE was replaced with the UKHSA during the pandemic, which will do a lot of that stuff more effectively going forwards (so long as it isnt severely weakened by future budget cuts).

We also heard from the modellers as to what their models were actually meant to show, and the disgusting way this was misused by sections of the press to support their distorted agendas, for example their desire to discredit modelled scenario outputs in order to try to avoid the second lockdown. The inquiry hears much about the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths that happened as a result of this and other causes of late responses to the pandemic, and shitheads who think the pandemic response was an overreaction wont find the inquiry to be on their side, because thats not where the evidence points. Rather, the standard picture emerges where those who wanted to avoid the downsides of strong and long lockdowns actually needed to support early action of other forms as the only way to possibly avoid the heavier and longer stuff, and to minimise its impact. The inquiry is interested in the downsides of lockdown, and what could have been avoided, but as usual the evidence they actually find doesnt support the fuckwits, it supports the 'act early and dont half-arse things' brigade.
 
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Its probably questionable as to how well spent my time is in talking about the pandemic at all these days. Aside from inquiry details I dont bother too often these days, and I type fast so it probably doesnt take quite as long as it would appear.

Certainly Thesaint has, since they arrived here well after the pre-vaccine era was behind us, expressed many opinions on a variety of pandemic-related subjects that I dont agree with. I often use those as opportunities to go into some detail. I dont know if that will always continue.
 
That they've placed a timescale on it might mean that it really involves a specific medical matter and procedure.
 
Its probably questionable as to how well spent my time is in talking about the pandemic at all these days. Aside from inquiry details I dont bother too often these days, and I type fast so it probably doesnt take quite as long as it would appear.

Certainly Thesaint has, since they arrived here well after the pre-vaccine era was behind us, expressed many opinions on a variety of pandemic-related subjects that I dont agree with. I often use those as opportunities to go into some detail. I dont know if that will always continue.
I am envious you have so much time to follow things in such detail an I admit I'm mostly reliant on odd snippets of coverage the media relay into me - which I admit will give a skewed viewpoint.

You're about the only person online who does follow it that I have seen does follow this but remember others like me will have a different view of things - Some of the events that happened and their consequences are huge and far reaching that will be inevitable. If you leave the echo chamber of Urban you will find far more extreme/wierd &wonderful views than mine! Many people would rather move on and put in the past and avoid the subject all together so won't have one at all.

I'm not in BoJo's fanclub but do recognize the same thing happened in other countries too so can't entirely party politics related and try to keep a 'wider view' of things.

The jist of what I'm saying is the inquiry isn't supposed to be a critique of neolibral economics so will cover areas in ways neither of us are happy with so don't be surprised. Follow it but let it consume you I guess for you're own sanity!
 
Today the chair complained about evidence leaks to the media, has anybody seen any recent articles that contain such things?

I expect a lot more media interest this week and in the coming weeks as the witnesses become more senior and political. eg Cummings tomorrow.

I'm still discussing things in the other thread in the pandemic forum but not in as much detail, and I will probably end up cherrypicking the same sort of stuff as the media do during this period.

There was this from todays evidence so far:

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Various pieces of evidence discuss Johnson flip-flopping over key decisions when he returned from his own bout with Covid, and yes, here it is, as we always knew it would be:

“He wondered whether he should be regarded as the mayor from the Jaws film”
 
After the first wave and Johnsons own return from Covid we have stuff like "This is in danger of becoming Trump/Bolsonaro level of mad and dangerous" and other related messages about Johnson:

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Other stuff that came up today involved Johnsons attitude towards lockdowns, broad system fuckups and wasted time in February-March 2020, what was known and what advice was given on various dates.

When then original shit plan had to go in the bin, there really was a London Lockdown plan, and they even started planning a joint press conference with Johnson and Khan.

At some point Chris Whitty called the now infamous Sunak scheme of that summer 'Eat Out to Help Out the Virus'.
 
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