The Conservative and Unionist Party's time is up

[Knotted]

OK bold thesis please shoot it down!

The Tories are no longer a party of government.

They have a very particular voting base of property owners and pensioners that's demographically shrinking. They used to command around 45% of the vote in the 70's and 80's and even at the 2019 peak where there were very particular Brexit+Corbyn (let's be fair Corbyn could win votes for Labour but he was also shoring up the Tory vote) conditions they were only on 43%. They used to have a much broader and more youthful voting basis which has long eroded. Their vote has always had the potential to dip to around the 20% mark in recent years - look at Westminister voting intention around the time of the 2019 Euro elections.

Johnson did terrible things to their peripheral support and Truss has done similar to their core support. They look like a bag of jostling careerists none of whom seem to be on top of their brief. Now Brexit is over they don't really have a mission. Self centered and dangerous even to middle England. But it's housing and home ownership or rather the lack of it that will keep them out of government.

I think we might be looking at a terrible Labour government that lasts for decades. This is not an optimistic thesis.

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[Chilli.s]

Their times up? if only it were true

 

[planetgeli]

Wasn't it Labour 'out for decades' after 2019?

I've heard it all before. We have a well established, entrenched two party state.

Therefore

I think we might be looking at a terrible Labour government that lasts for decades.

Should be we are looking at terrible government that lasts...forever.

 

[JimW]

Job's already done though if, as you hint yourself, TINA other than a similar bunch of PPEs and wonks who believe in austerity and privatising our remaining social provisions.

 

[Knotted]

There was a discussion on here about Labour being out for decades (possibly post 2019 possilby post Hartlepool?). I remember pushing back against this idea. I've always thought the Tories would struggle to stay in power in 2024. The polls have never suggested that Labour's position was unrecoverable.

 

[brogdale]

Their times up? if only it were true

Regrettably, their immodest claims to be the most successful political party of all time has some basis in reality.

 

[platinumsage]

The other party will always eventually fuck up enough that the other party, a different party having been in opposition for so long, seems worth a punt.

 

[emanymton]

I don't think we can take much from the current poll numbers. I think some people are answering Labour to punish them, and a lot would still vote Tory if it came to it.

 

[Karl Masks]

Their times up? if only it were true

REmember the early noughties and the hilarity of William "I am assured he pays his taxes" Hague, and the Quiet Man before he became Ian Duncan Welfare-Shiva, Destroyer of Lives.

 

[Rimbaud]

I have thought about this as well.

The tories have done little to win votes outside of their key demographic of retired homeowners. Thatcher era of Tories at least had a sizeable number of people who benefited from buying their council house and the subsequent housing boom, and it is still basically those voters who are keeping them in power. They haven't done anything to build a sizeable enough social base amongst the younger generations, including people who are now in their 40s whose main memory of Tory government is 12 years of decline, scandal and chaos.

That the boomer generation who benefited from rising house prices is disproportionately large and votes in large numbers is not something that will last forever, and a tipping point will eventually reached where their vote is no longer decisive.

Next election could finally be the tipping point. If Scottish Independence goes ahead, then being the Unionist Party who led to the break up of the union could be a fitting epitaph that they will struggle to recover from.

 

[Supine]

Why is their base demographically shrinking? The U.K. population is ageing so you’d expect there should be more tories not less.

 

[Karl Masks]

I have thought about this as well.

The tories have done little to win votes outside of their key demographic of retired homeowners. Thatcher era of Tories at least had a sizeable number of people who benefited from buying their council house and the subsequent housing boom, and it is still basically those voters who are keeping them in power. They haven't done anything to build a sizeable enough social base amongst the younger generations, including people who are now in their 40s whose main memory of Tory government is 12 years of decline, scandal and chaos.

That the boomer generation who benefited from rising house prices is disproportionately large and votes in large numbers is not something that will last forever, and a tipping point will eventually reached where their vote is no longer decisive.

Next election could finally be the tipping point. If Scottish Independence goes ahead, then being the Unionist Party who led to the break up of the union could be a fitting epitaph that they will struggle to recover from.

But don't the Tories (ie the government) have to give permission for a referendum before anything can happen?

 

[Knotted]

Why is their base demographically shrinking? The U.K. population is ageing so you’d expect there should be more tories not less.

Because the current pensioner cohort is largely a property owning one and they are not getting replaced by property owning younger generations.

Tbf this is a bit of a narrow analysis though. I'm interested in what people think.

 

[tim]

Next election could finally be the tipping point. If Scottish Independence goes ahead, then being the Unionist Party who led to the break up of the union could be a fitting epitaph that they will struggle to recover from.

I can't see that a party that has hardly any seats in Scotland will suffer from not having Scottish MPs on the opposition benches voting against them.

 

[Rimbaud]

Why is their base demographically shrinking? The U.K. population is ageing so you’d expect there should be more tories not less.

Because you don't necessarily magically turn into a Tory when you get older, home ownership is a key part of it but in future fewer retirees will have made it to homeownership, and those that did may have benefited relatively less.

The population is ageing, but as I understand it that is driven by people living longer and also the size of the boomer generation. I don't think the difference in size between Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z is significant compared to the difference in size between baby boomers and Gen X. (I may be wrong about this, but that's my impression).

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[Rimbaud]

But don't the Tories (ie the government) have to give permission for a referendum before anything can happen?

I believe the plan to get round that is to do an advisory, non binding referendum, then declare that as a mandate to unilaterally declare independence, using Ireland 1922 as a model.

 

[Spandex]

Some UK polls...

10th March 1997
Con - 30%
Lab - 53%

14th March 2017
Con - 41%
Lab - 28%
(UKIP - 13%)

2nd Oct 2022
Con - 25%
Lab - 50%

The Tories look fucked at the moment, but who knows what'll happen after a few years of PM Starmer? Maybe they'll be out for a few Parliaments and the freaks currently in charge will move on, or be shoved in the Lords, and a new batch of Tories in tune with the 2030s will come along and look to a chunk of voters like a good alternative to a clapped out Labour administration who've failed to address any of the big problems of the time; memories having faded about the clusterfuck of May/Johnson/Truss and a shiny new leader who isn't the tired looking incumbent.

Maybe the 2024 election will be a rerun of 1992 rather than 1997. Remember the certainty that Major would lose to Kinnock? Politics are volatile at the moment.

Or maybe you're right and they'll go the way of the Liberal Party.

I asked my daughter's Magic 8 Ball and it said 'Can't say right now'.

 

[weltweit]

I note they didn't row back on Banker's bonuses.

 

[kabbes]

Because you don't necessarily magically turn into a Tory when you get older, home ownership is a key part of it but in future fewer retirees will have made it to homeownership, and those that did may have benefited relatively less.

In four parliaments, a significant proportion of the current home-owning 60-somethings and 70-somethings will have died. Their homes won’t evaporate into thin air. Their Gen Y children, who will be in their 50s and 60s, will find themselves in receipt of an inherited house.

 

[JimW]

In four parliaments, a significant proportion of the current home-owning 60-somethings and 70-somethings will have died. Their homes won’t evaporate into thin air. Their Gen Y children, who will be in their 50s and 60s, will find themselves in receipt of an inherited house.

Won't many of those houses have been sold to fund the parents' care?

 

[tim]

Or maybe you're right and they'll go the way of the Liberal Party.

I asked my daughter's Magic 8 Ball and it said 'Can't say right now'.

If they did "go the way of the Liberal Party" we all know who would replace them.

 

[Rimbaud]

In four parliaments, a significant proportion of the current home-owning 60-somethings and 70-somethings will have died. Their homes won’t evaporate into thin air. Their Gen Y children, who will be in their 50s and 60s, will find themselves in receipt of an inherited house.

Not necessarily. My Grandad had to sell his house to pay for care so it went to an institutional investor. A fairly common scenario, enough to thin out the numbers of people inheriting and further concentrate property ownership.

 

[redsquirrel]

OK bold thesis please shoot it down!

The Tories are no longer a party of government.

They have a very particular voting base of property owners and pensioners that's demographically shrinking. They used to command around 45% of the vote in the 70's and 80's and even at the 2019 peak where there were very particular Brexit+Corbyn (let's be fair Corbyn could win votes for Labour but he was also shoring up the Tory vote) conditions they were only on 43%. They used to have a much broader and more youthful voting basis which has long eroded. Their vote has always had the potential to dip to around the 20% mark in recent years - look at Westminister voting intention around the time of the 2019 Euro elections.

The demographic death of the Toreies has been predicted for decades, yet less than 5 years ago they secured a 80 seat majority.

Sure they look likely to lose the next election, possibly even badly, but the idea that the Tories are not going to be one of the two major parties at Westminster is fantasy. They might spend some, or even a considerable time, in the wilderness but they are not going to die.

 

[Rimbaud]

The demographic death of the Toreies has been predicted for decades, yet less than 5 years ago they secured a 80 seat majority.

Sure they look likely to lose the next election, possibly even badly, but the idea that the Tories are not going to be one of the two major parties at Westminster is fantasy. They might spend some, or even a considerable time, in the wilderness but they are not going to die.

Perhaps they will survive, but "they are not going to die" seems a bit too certain. Tories being one of the two parties isn't part of the laws of physics. One day they will surely die.

 

[Knotted]

The demographic death of the Toreies has been predicted for decades, yet less than 5 years ago they secured a 80 seat majority.

Sure they look likely to lose the next election, possibly even badly, but the idea that the Tories are not going to be one of the two major parties at Westminster is fantasy. They might spend some, or even a considerable time, in the wilderness but they are not going to die.

I'm not particularly impressed by their 2019 result tbh. Very particular conditions there. A better counter would be to look at the 2010 or 2015 results where they won even while UKIP took a portion of their vote away.

Anecdotally I'm looking at the Tory voters I know making very sheepish noises. I doubt they will vote Tory again. There's a trust barrier that's been broken.

 

[redsquirrel]

Perhaps they will survive, but "they are not going to die" seems a bit too certain. Tories being one of the two parties isn't part of the laws of physics. One day they will surely die.

They've been one of the two major parties at Westminster for the last 100 years, the UK has an electoral system that tends towards a two party system (and does not like it will be changing), they have significant financials backers, represent a particular set of interests and have a historical & cultural background.

One day the earth will fall into the sun but on any sensible timescale the Conservative Party is going to be around.

 

[Elpenor]

Not necessarily. My Grandad had to sell his house to pay for care so it went to an institutional investor. A fairly common scenario, enough to thin out the numbers of people inheriting and further concentrate property ownership.

I do think the transfer of property ownership from owner-occupiers to the rentier class is going to catch a lot of Tories (and others) out in the next decade or so, and the conditions for it (starving the NHS and social care of investment, people going private for operations as they can’t wait, equity release schemes) are already in place.

I know plenty of people who’s only chance of owning their own home is a parent dying, with the caveat that the parent needs to do so quickly and without needing long term care

 

[killer b]

I can't see them disappearing under FPTP, but they could easily go the way of a lot of the heritage right-wing parties on the continent if there was a change to a proportional system. Though of course the price to pay for that would be a more thrusting and youthful radical right party on the ascendant.