All the parts are in place for this to work now.
The barge itself has four steerable engines that allow it maintain a position to within 3m of a fixed GPS location. The Grasshopper test vehicle has demonstrated 1m accuracy when landing from a translated position 1km up. The first stage has demonstrated re-entry and touchdown (zero velocity at zero altitude)
It's steering the stage during final descent that will be the trickiest bit. The landing zone has to be narrowed down to a tiny little rectangle. If they can do that, then it's just treading the same ground as Grasshopper.
In my mind, they'll either miss by a large amount, or land bang on the X.