Scots indy results thread

[JTG]

My previously 'no' housemate has just come out for 'yes' in the kitchen, giving a clear victory to Indy in the Eastville Scots poll

 

[AverageJoe]

Paddy Power latest odds - No - 1/5 on, Yes - 7/2

Thats not as close as its being made out to be at all

 

[cantsin]

Yes, starting about 1-2am

cld be wrong, but isnt it just one big yes/no, ie : no individual constituency-type results ? which would mean just one result declaration at 5am ish ?

 

[cantsin]

Paddy Power latest odds - No - 1/5 on, Yes - 7/2

Thats not as close as its being made out to be at all

been roughly like that on Betfair throughout, and that lot never seem to get it wrong ( wisdom of the crowd etc ) - but this is a unique scenario, and not even the vultures on there can predict the impact of completely unprecedented levels of turnout on either side .

 

[butchersapron]

cld be wrong, but isnt it just one big yes/no, ie : no individual constituency-type results ? which would mean just one result declaration at 5am ish ?

Yes and no, they're totting up - as they go - so there's a running total as diff areas declare their local results. Which, of course, people want to cross-check with areas known for strong support for one position or the other to see if that turned into actual votes.

 

[ddraig]

times again, scroll down
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e718e2b8-3e59-11e4-a620-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Df7sJ9Wc

 

[JTG]

Bookies odds mean fuck all btw

 

[frogwoman]

holy shit, I reckon they might just do it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The running totals won't mean much though as there's no data from past elections to compare them to. I suppose they'll blather on about how the results differ from the opinion polls in one place or another but they might as well just talk about something else entirely until there's a final result.

 

[cantsin]

Yes and no, they're totting up - as they go - so there's a running total as diff areas declare their local results. Which, of course, people want to cross-check with areas known for strong support for one position or the other to see if that turned into actual votes.

ah ok, ta

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Paddy Power latest odds - No - 1/5 on, Yes - 7/2

Thats not as close as its being made out to be at all

The gambler in me has just put a tenner on that at 7/2

 

[JTG]

The running totals won't mean much though as there's no data from past elections to compare them to. I suppose they'll blather on about how the results differ from the opinion polls in one place or another but they might as well just talk about something else entirely until there's a final result.

Esp with the three biggest cities being last to declare - around 25% of the population

 

[butchersapron]

The running totals won't mean much though as there's no data from past elections to compare them to. I suppose they'll blather on about how the results differ from the opinion polls in one place or another but they might as well just talk about something else entirely until there's a final result.

You compare them to what local polling said, your own campaigns canvassing, historical traditions of the place and so on. If the polls suggest overwhelming support for position a) then it turns out that it's 50/50 then you make a note of it. If a similar area with similar expectations goes the same way, you might think a patter in developing and so on. of course local results tell us something - you just have to do some work with them.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Things tend to be a bit anti-climactic in British politics, and based almost entirely on that I'm calling the election result as a no.

 

[JTG]

I expect Glasgow to plump for Yes fwiw

 

[Sprocket.]

I heard someone say on Radio 4 last night polls are useless when it is so close.
Voters get to the booth and still ponder and even panic and change their mind.
I wish all in Scotland the very best.

 

[AverageJoe]

Wow. Betfair have *already* paid out on a "No" vote.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...pendence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402

 

[SpookyFrank]

You compare them to what local polling said, your own campaigns canvassing, historical traditions of the place and so on. If the polls suggest overwhelming support for position a) then it turns out that it's 50/50 then you make a note of it. If a similar area with similar expectations goes the same way, you might think a patter in developing and so on. of course local results tell us something - you just have to do some work with them.

You could just wait though. The result will be the same.

I remember how annoyed I was that I stayed up all night to watch the 2010 GE results so I'd know what happened straight away and yet in the cruel sunlight of the next morning I still didn't know shit, and nor did anyone else. They were all just sat around in offices deciding amongst themselves who the government was. I could have got a good night's kip and found out exactly the same thing.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Wow. Betfair have *already* paid out on a "No" vote.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...pendence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402

How is that a good idea?

 

[butchersapron]

You could just wait though. The result will be the same.

You could not bother watching or listening to the cricket - just wait till it's finished then check the result.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You could not bother watching or listening to the cricket - just wait till it's finished then check the result.

Yeah but cricket is important

 

[Nylock]

Nothing funny about nasty shit like this, though.

this response to that post did make me laugh out loud though:


E2A: Best of luck Scotland! (or as we'd say in wales: Pob lwc yr Alban!)

 

[peterkro]

Wow. Betfair have *already* paid out on a "No" vote.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...pendence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402

Doesn't mean much these people are just accountants taking a skim off all money bet.I imagine they are trying to make a political point to encourage a no vote.
You could also bet everything on the fact they have laid off enough to cover their losses in case of a Yes vote.

 

[el-ahrairah]

How is that a good idea?

well, it might make a few DKs vote No because they want to be on the winning side.

 

[JTG]

Bookies are businesses with business reasons for doing what they do. They aint all seeing oracles

 

[belboid]

How is that a good idea?

it's a bit of very cheap advertising as all the papes cover the story

 

[likesfish]

Harry s thats just nasty shit and needs to be called on it
Much as wasting plod time on facebook and twitter their ought to be a slap button where idiots get a slap and before you start I definitly desrve a few

 

[frogwoman]

well, it might make a few DKs vote No because they want to be on the winning side.

I can't imagine having such easily influenced opinions!

 

[butchersapron]

it's a bit of very cheap advertising as all the papes cover the story

...and let's face it, most of that money paid out is going to go right back in.

 

[butchersapron]

You compare them to what local polling said, your own campaigns canvassing, historical traditions of the place and so on. If the polls suggest overwhelming support for position a) then it turns out that it's 50/50 then you make a note of it. If a similar area with similar expectations goes the same way, you might think a patter in developing and so on. of course local results tell us something - you just have to do some work with them.

This sort of work.

Undaunted, I considered a variety of different plausible statistical models for the distribution of Yes and No votes across councils. For each model I looked to see which councils would be most likely to have a tie between Yes and No in the event that there is a tie for Scotland as a whole.

On this basis the councils most likely to be indicative of the overall result are East Lothian, Fife, Midlothian, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire and West Lothian. If these councils all have a majority for Yes then the overall result is likely to be Yes.