Rutherglen and Hamilton West (... eventually)

[PR1Berske]

Background:

This is a bit back and forth but here goes.

Margaret Ferrier (SNP, Rutherglen and Hamilton West) travelled across the country and throughout the Palace of Westminster, after testing positive for Covid during the period of quarantine and restrictions. Over the subsequent period she has:

*Lost the party whip (October 2020)
*Arrested for culpable and reckless conduct (January 2021)
*Pleaded guilty (August 2022)
*Sentenced to community service (September 2022)
*Recommended for 30-days Commons suspension.... which she automatically appealed (March 2023)
*Lost that appeal (May 2023)

As of today the next likely step is suspension, followed by the Recall Petition, which will either result in the by-election (if successful) or nothing at all (if not).

The vote to suspend Margaret Ferrier would have happened today were it not for rumours about Boris supporters voting against it because they're worried the same fate will befall him. So if you're not sure if the House of Commons is functioning properly, an MP who has broken the law and is supposed to be suspended for a month is being allowed to stay in position because of the never ending internecine battle amongst Conservatives.

Boris Johnson allies accused of planning to block Margaret Ferrier suspension

Supporters said to fear that 30-day Commons ban for Covid breach would set a precedent if Johnson faces similar vote

www.theguardian.com

Recall Petition now live:




If the petition passes, then a by-election will be called in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency.

If

 

[equationgirl]

It's not open for signature until June 20th though. The Electoral Commission have merely confirmed that there will be a Recall Petition.

Good, it's about time.

 

[hitmouse]

Have there been any Mason/Galloway sightings yet?

 

[steeplejack]

Galloway has previously stated that he or someone from whatever his carpetbag's called these days will be standing to replace "Cov-IDIOT Margaret Ferrier".

will be a very interesting and potentially tight by-election.

 

[Sue]

Have there been any Mason/Galloway sightings yet?

We really need a reaction emoji.

 

[PR1Berske]

will be a very interesting and potentially tight by-election.

Here's hoping the petition passes.

This seems to be the relevant page on the council's website: Politicians

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[PR1Berske]

By-election on. Enough people signed the petition.

 

[danny la rouge]

Margaret Ferrier: Covid breach MP loses seat after recall petition Margaret Ferrier: Covid breach MP loses seat after recall petition

Interesting to see how the SNP do, with her stupidity and their … I don’t want to use stupidity twice in the same sentence … travails.

 

[danny la rouge]

Dead cert Labour gain is the bettting.

Electoral Calculus

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

[PR1Berske]

Thanks danny la rouge


I've asked for a thread merge (Rutherglen and Hamilton West (... eventually))

 

[editor]

*mergin'

 

[danny la rouge]

My Auld Da is from Blantyre, in this constituency. Traditionally “weigh the Labour votes” territory. Went SNP in the “tsunami” election.

 

[steeplejack]

Dead cert Labour gain is the bettting.

Electoral Calculus

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

b…b….b…but surely “lifelong socialist and Celtic fan” George Galloway is in the running for what he will see as one of his four (and counting) heartland areas?

Has the Workers’ Party carpetbag maintained some sort of shape or has it now frayed into political shopfloor sweepings?

 

[PR1Berske]

Whoever wins here will have to choose whether they're going to fight the new seat of Rutherglen, or Hamilton and Clyde Valley, after boundary changes.

 

[PR1Berske]

Labour candidate:

SNP candidate:

 

[PR1Berske]

Tory;

 

[DotCommunist]

Labour candidate:

SNP candidate:

Is the lab candidate related to Armitage?

 

[danny la rouge]

Is the lab candidate related to Armitage?

He talks a load of pony.

 

[Bingoman]

If Labour dont here I cant see Them winning the Election outright?

 

[danny la rouge]

If Labour dont here I cant see Them winning the Election outright?

I don’t want them to win, which probably means they will.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I don’t want them to win, which probably means they will.

I do want them to win. Better of the two options.

You don't get much more deluded than the SNP candidate though, they have zero influence in Westminster.

 

[danny la rouge]

I do want them to win. Better of the two options.

You don't get much more deluded than the SNP candidate though, they have zero influence in Westminster.

I don’t want the SNP to win either. I’d prefer it if nobody turned out to vote. But I very much want Starmer to get a kick in the nuts. So that remains my favourite outcome. And therefore it won’t happen. Your wish will be granted.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I don’t want the SNP to win either. I’d prefer it if nobody turned out to vote. But I very much want Starmer to get a kick in the nuts. So that remains my favourite outcome. And therefore it won’t happen. Your wish will be granted.

If Labour lose this one, I feel that it puts their victory at the next election in doubt.

Although I hope that Labour will win the next election, I'm very tempted to place a bet on a Conservative win.

Why do I doubt a Labour victory? Of the 1000 or so Conservative losses in the Council elections, Labour only picked up about half.

 

[danny la rouge]

If Labour lose this one, I feel that it puts their victory at the next election in doubt.

Although I hope that Labour will win the next election, I'm very tempted to place a bet on a Conservative win.

Why do I doubt a Labour victory? Of the 1000 or so Conservative losses in the Council elections, Labour only picked up about half.

OK, I’ll take your bet.

 

[Sasaferrato]

OK, I’ll take your bet.

OK. £10.00.

 

[belboid]

OK. £10.00.

Ooh, can I get in on it too? I'll even give 2-1 odds in your favour.

 

[StoneRoad]

It seems to have taken almost forever to get to this point, and now we'll have to wait for the actual date to be called for teh by-election, as Westminster is in recess for the summer ...

 

[Sasaferrato]

Ooh, can I get in on it too? I'll even give 2-1 odds in your favour.

A whimsical tenner is one thing, open season on bets is entirely another.

 

[danny la rouge]

A whimsical tenner is one thing, open season on bets is entirely another.

Also, I misread you and thought you were betting on a Tory win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West! Now that I’ve had a nap and re-read it I’m regretting my rashness! But a bet’s a bet.