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Portuguese elections

It might be a bit late, and considering last night's events, a bit unimportant, but I come across this thread and I thought it got it slightly wrong, this is how I see it:

It may not seem like it, but to me, Portugal's whole political scene actually moved to the Right. The Socialist Party may have won, but the Socialist Party's extra support came from people deserting the two Far-Left Parties, and Chega arrived as the third largest Party and saw its support rise by 5x times, that's a move to the Right.

The far-right Chega party secured 12 seats and became the third-largest party in parliament for the first time.


Portugal went RIGHT not Left:

The two different communist/Far-Left Party's votes were down by 44%, (seats down 64%) and that is where the extra Socialist Party votes came from, and Chega, the right-wing Party, increased its vote 5x fold. Portugal actually went further to the Right than the Left.

Anyway, that's how I saw it, but I am no expert on Portuguese politics and wouldn't know any intricacies of the Portuguese political scene.
 
Another General Election next month as the ruling SP have been caught up in a corruption scandal. The SP have elected a new leader and are battling it out with the conservative PSD, who also have a new leader, in the polls . Chega the right wing populists are polling around 14-16% , Left Block ( also with a new leader) around 7/8%, Liberal Initiative 6/7% and the PCP ( another new leader) around 3/4%. There won't be an absolute winner, it will go to a coalition or agreement of some sort .

A series of strikes last year didn't end up in a generalised shift to the left, trade unions are still weak and Chega are never off the bloody TV .

One moment that brought a smile was this below however this sort of stuff isn't going to be enough to stop Chega who are running on an anti corruption ticket from getting a sizeable chunk of the vote . The poster says 'we pay so many taxes to support corruption' which will hit home with many voters.

 
Saw a bit of this on the TV when over there for Christmas. They seemed to be talking about Chega a lot, making the same mistake that was made with Farage etc. over here - gives them more attention than deserved!

The new SP leader is from the same small town as the Mrs, went to her school but a few years above. He was apparently involved in the national party from quite a young age. He did well when he was in charge of the railways a couple of years back, seems capable and comes across well, but whether that is enough to surpass the corruption scandal I don‘t know. People do moan about corruption a lot, it’s endemic even on a local level, part of the culture - mostly fairly benign ‘calling in favours’ type of stuff.
 
Another General Election next month as the ruling SP have been caught up in a corruption scandal. The SP have elected a new leader and are battling it out with the conservative PSD, who also have a new leader, in the polls . Chega the right wing populists are polling around 14-16% , Left Block ( also with a new leader) around 7/8%, Liberal Initiative 6/7% and the PCP ( another new leader) around 3/4%. There won't be an absolute winner, it will go to a coalition or agreement of some sort .

A series of strikes last year didn't end up in a generalised shift to the left, trade unions are still weak and Chega are never off the bloody TV .

One moment that brought a smile was this below however this sort of stuff isn't going to be enough to stop Chega who are running on an anti corruption ticket from getting a sizeable chunk of the vote . The poster says 'we pay so many taxes to support corruption' which will hit home with many voters.


Blimey! 50 years since the Portuguese Revolution this April! I was in secondary school, and one morning I said to my school friend, who was a Conservative, that it was a good thing that the dictatorship had been overthrown, and he said that he did not think so. I said to him that I thought he was against dictatorship (we had discussed the "Soviet Bloc" in the past) and he said he was only against left-wing dictatorships.
 
Chega now calling for 1000 euro a month minimum wage ,which PCP have been proposing for some time ,oddly the Left Bloc proposed 900 euros last year in Parliament.
The main parties to the right of the Socialist Party ( without Chega) are now aligned in what's called the Democratic Alliance .
The main questions for me is whether a) the democratic alliance will get enough votes to be a majority without Chega b)whether Chega's vote( which could be anywhere between 15_20%) might get clipped by any DA momentum c) whether the SP continues to take enough votes from BE and PCP or whether a line is drawn.
At the moment it looks like DA could be the largest bloc .
 
Latest polls projects that 'left' (44.5%) has an advantage over the right, if the “no is no” to Chega continues. AD and IL account for 32.6% of voting intentions, a figure that rises to 49% if André Ventura's party Chega enters the equation.

What I found interesting is that in the 18 to 34 age group, 29.8% say they will vote for AD ( the Conservative alliance) , with Chega in second place (22.9%).
 
Latest polls indicate that it's going to be tight and the polls all show something a little different. At the moment the left vote SP/Left Bloc/ CDU ( which is the PCP/Green alliance/ and Livre is forecast around 46% plus the Animal Protection Party (2%) so around 48%. The right without Chega projecting around 34% but if they allow Chega seats at the table they get around 51%. The polls claim a margin of error of around 3.4 points. An unknown factor is how the 28% or so who say they haven't made up their minds or won't vote turn out . Hard to get a feel.



The spectre of Chega , whose success is mainly down to the inability of the Socialist Party and the Alliance Democratic ( a coalition of two centre right parties) to offer anything new or of substance , now creates a battle where the SP is trying get the votes of Left Bloc and the PCP supporters so that Chega do not become potential king makers . This in turn means less votes from the left parties and therefore the weak scrutiny and pressure on the SP to actually tackle working lass issues. Rinse and repeat.



This Aljazeera article surprisingly does sum up well that the issues that people wanted to talk about were prioritised in the face to face debates. This is very much down to the broadcasters ( split across 4 channels I think) who have given far too much leeway and credibility to Chega. By law they have to have equal representation in a series of head to head debates between two parties however there has been some clever adding up that in many of these debates, the right got more time to speak.

 
It's already clear that either Chega will be part of the future government or there will be new elections. Doesn't look like AD (the right coalition) will have enough to govern alone or even for a minority government. Various parties have said they won't form a coalition with Chega but ehh.. they might well.

I can't see how the left have any chance of putting a government together. Really poor results for BE and CDU, failing to capitalise on recent government corruption and economic issues nationally. Chega has swept up a lot of the anti establishment and anti 2 main parties vote.

Pretty depressing overall but kind of what I expected (I've been in Portugal most of this year). 66% turnout too, higher than past few elections.
 
4 seats still to be counted for the overseas constituency



key for the left: red Socialist Party , darker red Left Bloc, Blue PCP and Green is Livre

PAN is the Animals people

for the right : AD an alliance of orange centre right, lighter blue Liberal Initiative ( small state reduce taxes right wingers ), very thin orange at bottom is a small alliance of right wing cons

Royal blue : Chega nasty right wing populists


In the district I'm in Chega narrowly beat the Socialist Party to getting the most votes but tied on three seats each.
 
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That’s probably the end of the much needed high speed rail project anyway, the socialists have been quite good with reviving the railways after decades of neglect but still much to do. Small government advocates will pull the plug on this immediately.
 
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A few hundred votes here and there... Not a happy night, but been expecting since election as called

Leader of AD has been saying 'no means no' WRT Chega.

Reminds me quite a bit of Brexit, the establishment saying don't vote Chega, the people saying 'nah mate fuck off we vote for who we want'

Also like what we're UKIP, Chega probably owe half their vote count to media coverage. Everywhere the same mistake again and again, popular far right party say things right up to the line, media reports, other parties expected to give a response, rinsed and repeated for the next news cycle.

The39thStep I'm at the other end of the country, why'd you reckon the Chega message hit home in Algarve, guess to do with unofficial exploited to fuck guest workers and that....and Brit retirees??

I wonder if the the newly minted 900k Brasilian ( who are keeping the economy alive) came as a suprise to some.



Also curious that AD/PSD got practically the same proportion of votes cast as last time

I would've thought it would be
PSD--//chega as a natural switch, but maybe there's plenty of otherwise unengaged voter who came out, plus PS to Chega switch

Can see the overseas voters going right as there is a lot of -'i needed to leave Portugal because it's shit there'
 
Chega won where I live and in most of the surrounding Algarve. The Algarve Hospital never opening has been a big issue that past governments haven’t dealt with - they even built a train station to service it but policial wrangling has stalled the project, immigration, housing and lack of engagement and investment from Lisbon are others..

There are a lot of people here on minimum wage, really struggling to find secure housing due to Airbnb market and immigration
 
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A few hundred votes here and there... Not a happy night, but been expecting since election as called

Leader of AD has been saying 'no means no' WRT Chega.

Reminds me quite a bit of Brexit, the establishment saying don't vote Chega, the people saying 'nah mate fuck off we vote for who we want'

Also like what we're UKIP, Chega probably owe half their vote count to media coverage. Everywhere the same mistake again and again, popular far right party say things right up to the line, media reports, other parties expected to give a response, rinsed and repeated for the next news cycle.

The39thStep I'm at the other end of the country, why'd you reckon the Chega message hit home in Algarve, guess to do with unofficial exploited to fuck guest workers and that....and Brit retirees??

I wonder if the the newly minted 900k Brasilian ( who are keeping the economy alive) came as a suprise to some.



Also curious that AD/PSD got practically the same proportion of votes cast as last time

I would've thought it would be
PSD--//chega as a natural switch, but maybe there's plenty of otherwise unengaged voter who came out, plus PS to Chega switch

Can see the overseas voters going right as there is a lot of -'i needed to leave Portugal because it's shit there'
Re The Chega vote.Yes the AD vote is pretty much the same as it was last time for the parties that compose the alliance. The BE vote is 30k higher and the PCP struggling .Its the higher turn out that has consolidated the Chega vote .The PS lost votes ,its delivered very little and the inevitable vote PS to stop the right has lost its selling point for many as its simply a vote for the same old same old .
The Brazilian vote in Portugal overall was for Lula but in the Algarve the Bolsonarra vote was higher percentage wise as I recall ,I read somewhere that the Bolsonarra lobby here called for a vote for Chega .


The Algarve is an area with low union density and a high number of self employed .Its also a place heavily reliant on the tourist industry characterised by seasonal employment , low wages ,internal immigration of Labour and external from Brazil and African and the historical scapegoat of the gypsies. There has also recently been a higher immigration rate from India . Add that to a housing crisis and its a very contestable area for populists and a protest vote. That's not to say that that challenge couldn't have come from the left but the populist right are better at being populist than the left and have the wind behind them.

(I'm on a new phone so excuse spelling etc)
 
To put the housing crisis into context, the minimum wage here is €956.66 per month before tax and social security. Ive just done a rental search in our town and there are 11 rentals available the cheapest being €850 for a one bedroom, excluding bills.

in a town with approx 15,000 residents
 
I know someone who lives in Faro and tourist rentals (mostly Airbnb) have really fucked things up for locals. Same anywhere in Portugal really, and I know it was also a big deal in Spain, I think Barcelona had a crackdown. This shit needs regulating to fuck.

Is the Algarve the Florida of Portugal, full of wealthy reactionary retirees, or is that a mischaracterisation? Just seeing a southern tourist province going fash makes me think of similarities with the US.
 
I know someone who lives in Faro and tourist rentals (mostly Airbnb) have really fucked things up for locals. Same anywhere in Portugal really, and I know it was also a big deal in Spain, I think Barcelona had a crackdown. This shit needs regulating to fuck.

Is the Algarve the Florida of Portugal, full of wealthy reactionary retirees, or is that a mischaracterisation? Just seeing a southern tourist province going fash makes me think of similarities with the US.
not sure the foreign tourists would have an impact except in negatively impacting local people livelihoods, is there a lot of internal ones form wealthier regions?
 
I know someone who lives in Faro and tourist rentals (mostly Airbnb) have really fucked things up for locals. Same anywhere in Portugal really, and I know it was also a big deal in Spain, I think Barcelona had a crackdown. This shit needs regulating to fuck.

Is the Algarve the Florida of Portugal, full of wealthy reactionary retirees, or is that a mischaracterisation? Just seeing a southern tourist province going fash makes me think of similarities with the US.
Property ownership by foreigners is a big issue in a number of areas Lisbon, Algarve and Silver Coast . Both the Golden Visa scheme and the fact that you don't have to be a resident to own property has fuelled the the housing price issue. Air bnb is also an issue as are foreign owners who just buy to rent . but it is not only foreigners and there is little evidence of foreigners equal reactionaries. Portugal has its own reactionaries, its own wealthy capitalist class and its own vampire like capitalist mentality. The Algarve and other places that have local economies are actually are not only affected by tourist accommodation but by the the low wage low right tourist economy which in itself attracts both foreign and internal labour on low wages long hours.

In fact Portugal is flogged off and promoted as an investment opportunity by real estate companies some of whom finance Chega and others who finance any political party that is in control locally where they can get planning permission.
 
not sure the foreign tourists would have an impact except in negatively impacting local people livelihoods, is there a lot of internal ones form wealthier regions?
Yes there are lots of internal tourists from Lisbon and other areas. Many own houses that are used only at Easter, NY and August and lay empty the rest of the year.
 
Property ownership by foreigners is a big issue in a number of areas Lisbon, Algarve and Silver Coast . Both the Golden Visa scheme and the fact that you don't have to be a resident to own property has fuelled the the housing price issue. Air bnb is also an issue as are foreign owners who just buy to rent . but it is not only foreigners and there is little evidence of foreigners equal reactionaries. Portugal has its own reactionaries, its own wealthy capitalist class and its own vampire like capitalist mentality. The Algarve and other places that have local economies are actually are not only affected by tourist accommodation but by the the low wage low right tourist economy which in itself attracts both foreign and internal labour on low wages long hours.

In fact Portugal is flogged off and promoted as an investment opportunity by real estate companies some of whom finance Chega and others who finance any political party that is in control locally where they can get planning permission.
There was a recent article in The Fail about an aristocrat artist who had bought up 14 house in our town to stop them being ‘torn down or subjected to formulaic development’ and is now being forced to sell due to bad health.

These houses are rotting away, some partially developed. They come one and off the market at ludicrous prices and his mind changing when someone finally makes an offer, meanwhile crumbling and causing social and environmental issues for neighbours and taking housing stock out of the market.

Doubt he’ll be missed by the locals
 
I suspect new elections in a few months. I doubt PS will support AD in a coalition. Whether the left would do any better if new elections are called is anyone's guess.

Here is Madeira there is intense pressure with rents and low wages. Locals being priced out and those with multiple properties or inherited wealth benefiting. The rents are absolutely crazy and I have heard stuff is just not renting, as the prices are too high for locals and there isn't the foreign demand either. My old apartment I shared with a friend a few years ago was 750. Now on idealista for 1500... and no one wants it, unsurprisingly.

Much stricter controls on Airbnb and purchase of property by foreigners/non-residents/investors would definitely help to relieve some of this pressure. But I think the bigger issue is the low wage economy, over-reliance on tourism and Portugal being whored to foreign capital all to readily, at the expense of the vast majority of citizens.
 
Regulation of property/rent should be a no-brainer for a socialist party, why the fuck has this territory been ceded to the far-right? Just bread and butter stuff, give local authorities power to limit/regulate Airbnb.
 
This is a translated, then edited cut and paste of an article that looked at some of the deputies that were elected for Chega . Chega now have 50 seats as they won the overseas constituency from the Socialist Party , this is the largest number of seats held by the far right since before the revolution

What do Chega deputies say? The press is the "tumor of democracy", "Europe is white" and evangelicals will defend "values of faith"​

André Ventura in the district of Setúbal, with Rita Matias on the left - the light and future of the party - and with Patrícia Carvalho on the right, the communications director who makes his videos for social media and who was elected deputy

André Ventura in the district of Setúbal, with Rita Matias on the left - the "light and future" of the party - and with Patrícia Carvalho on the right, the communications director who makes his videos for social media and who was elected deputy
José Fernandes
A party is not enough if it is made up of just one man. Expresso went to see who 20 of Chega's 48 deputies, new and returning, are and what they think: there is explicitly racist language, cultural war and hate speech. The four who transferred directly from the PSD are exceptions to this type of language


JOÃO TILLY: HATRED OF JOURNALISTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA

João Tilly, Chega's new deputy, is a celebrity on social media and has advocated anti-vaccine theses
This new Chega deputy is a successful YouTuber , with 63 thousand followers, very active on other social networks. He was head of the list for Viseu and the first to know that he had been elected on the night of March 10th. A supporter of conspiracy theories, he embarked on anti-vaccine theses , before he himself had to be vaccinated against Covid-19. It is a spear against traditional media, which he dubs “social communism” .
João Tilly disdains the influence of cable news channels and associates them with the extreme left. During the campaign he defended the bankruptcy of newspapers like “Público”; the “DN” and “JN” and the dismissal of journalists: “They are all going to become unemployed, paid for by our taxes, but that is better than being ordered by the Bloco de Esquerda .” For Tilly, these newspapers and the TSF are “communist, ultra-communist” and “left-handed trinkets” and the commentators are called “comentekos”. Attacks to discredit mainstream media are one of the tactics of the radical right around the world.
In a video to close the campaign, he referred to Rui Tavares as “the madman from Livre” and sociologist and commentator Raquel Varela as “leftist” . In his last videos before the elections, he launched a diatribe against polling companies, full of errors and misinformation, confusing who published what, and saying that the CNN tracking poll should be “banned” because it only had 200 respondents. It's not true: there were 600 respondents of which 200 came and went every day .

MARCUS SANTOS: “EUROPE IS WHITE, AFRICA IS BLACK”

Marcus Santos, vice-president of the Chega district in Porto, at the party's VI Congress

Marcus Santos, vice-president of the Chega district in Porto, at the party's VI Congress
Brazilian, Bolsonaro supporter, former martial arts athlete and black, he made one of the most applauded interventions at the Chega congress , in January, to prove that the party is not racist. “Are we racist and xenophobic because we want to defend our borders? So that Mamadus and Joacines don’t come anymore?” , he stated, referring to the leader of SOS Racismo and the former deputy of Livre. Then, he had this statement: “Europe is white, as Africa is black” . And he finished off with a joke: “If Chega was homophobic, you wouldn’t be here.” He has already been involved in internal controversies, such as when he said that the former PAN deputy, Cristina Rodrigues, represented “evil”, when she moved to Chega, for being a defender of gender equality or gay rights. Vice-president of the Porto district, where Cristina Rodrigues was elected, had to retract, now saying that the new deputy "has been an asset to the party".

CRISTINA RODRIGUES, THE ANIMALIST WHO “SAW THE LIGHT”

In a move that caused controversy within the party - for representing the opposite of what Chega stands for - the former PAN deputy, an anti-bullfighting activist, was hired as legal coordinator for Chega's parliamentary office in 2022. She later joined in the party and has now been elected by the Porto lists. Despite internal resistance, she gained the trust of André Ventura, coordinated the electoral program , and it was she, at the January congress, who responded to the Constitutional Court because of the lead in the party's statutes. The new deputy was accused two years ago on suspicion of having deleted more than four thousand PAN emails when she left the animalist parliamentary group then led by André Silva.
André Ventura, who in a campaign speech accused the other parties of being “infiltrated” by radical climate activists, when faced with the “infliction” of the former animalist in Chega, used humor to justify his integration: Cristina Rodrigues “saw the light!…

GABRIEL MITHÁ RIBEIRO: THE PRESS IS THE “TUMOR OF DEMOCRACY” AND THE PS “THE ENEMY OF HUMANITY”

He was already a deputy, and was re-elected as head of the list for Leiria. Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, university professor, has just published the book “12 Rules for a fairer Portugal”, and four of these commandments are these: “Make the PS the enemy of humanity” ; treat the “psychological warfare of Social Communication” as “the malignant tumor of democracy” ; end “ the alienation of racism - thus highlighted in italics -, which it describes as a “psychological warfare industry that must be banned” and , “in Europe, imposing the weight of the Christian cross on Islam .”

During the campaign, he made one of the most polarized and cultural war speeches with the left, which, in the context of the so-called “gender ideology”, he classified as “another phenomenon of collective mental insanity” and which wants to make the right “crazy” ” . He argued that the left is waging “permanent psychological warfare, which has devastating mental effects.” And he accused people on the left of not knowing the word “goodness” and of living obsessed “with cultural, religious diversity, habits, and vices”, in which “they cannot distinguish the good from the bad, the fair from the unjust, the right from wrong. Mithá Ribeiro says that “Chega fights against ignorance”, because the left is “the supreme of ignorance”.


RUI AFONSO: AGAINST THE MIXING OF RACES

In one of the first speeches of the official campaign, deputy Rui Afonso, head of the list for Porto, gave a nativist speech, with a racist and xenophobic content, when he spoke of the need to “recover our Portugueseness”, because “900 people run through our veins. years of History and we are losing that.” The leader of Chega justified this cultural erosion with “globalism”, which is an argument of the radical right around the world, and which he defined as “deracialization… miscegenation… I apologize [he was unable to say miscegenation], the mixture of cultures and races and so there is such a loss of identity that we cannot lose” . Because we are supposed to find “Spaniards in Spain, French in France and Portuguese in Portugal”.


RITA MATIAS, CHEGA'S NEW "LIGHT AND FUTURE" CELEBRITY

Leader of Juventude Chega, national representative of André Ventura, and celebrity among young people on social media, Rita Matias was endorsed by the leader, in such a way that it left the impression that he was designating her as successor. “Rita is a star, she is our future, a huge asset to this party” , said Ventura in Faro, during the election campaign.

At 25 years old, a deputy in the previous legislature, she takes positions on the conservative wing and was even accused of plagiarizing a speech by Giorgia Meloni. However, it was she, in addition to Ventura, who in November spoke at the meeting of the European group Identity and Democracy , in Lisbon, before Marine Le Pen, one of the leaders of the German AfD and a good part of the European radical right, to counter the “agenda green” and point out the maternity wards full of immigrants.

On Women's Day, at the end of the electoral campaign, he made an intervention saying that Ventura “does not look at women as victims”, accusing the left of “never having a message of hope”. Like the leader of Chega, Rita Matias defends “without complexes”, that “a pedophile or a rapist should be imprisoned forever" , and that a “pedophile should be castrated if he had to be.”

Part of the fight against “gender ideology” is led by Rita Matias, for example, when she says that it is unfair competition for women to “give way to biological men, who compete” with them “in sport, at work and in art".

PEDRO FRAZÃO: SUPPORTER OF THE THEORY OF POPULATION REPLACEMENT

The deputy from the ultra-conservative wing of the party, member of Opus Dei, who was one of the instigators of the recent farmers' revolt, defended the controversial theory of population replacement in the speech he gave in Santarém. “They want to replace our population with the massive entry of immigration, as we can already see in our schools, hospitals and public services” , said Pedro Frazão, invoking a racist theory, which with various declinations and intensities feeds conspiracy theories from the radical right in Worldwide.




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