redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
It's the way he tells em
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Hard to imagine a few years ago that we'd have a scenario where there was an outside chance of the tories having more mps in Scotland than Labour.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
One good reason is that, like face to face, they're more likely to elicit "shy voter" responses.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
No. It's not a matter of trust, but there is certainly good empirical evidence to suggest that different polling methodologies are (unsurprisingly) yielding different outcomes. Recently Smithson graphed up some polling to illustrate one aspect of this relating to the notion of the 'shy 'kipper'...
It's clear that the actual human interaction of the phone call appears to depress support expressed for UKIP, hence disproportionately raising tory numbers as a consequence. That's all.
danny la rouge brogdale Ta. That shy voter factor is interesting ...
UKIP aside, the Tory figure was a bit higher in that most recent one, Labour's a bit lower ... probably best to be cautious and not jump to conclusions though (yet). Just interested is all.
UKIP aside, the Tory figure was a bit higher in that most recent one, Labour's a bit lower ... probably best to be cautious and not jump to conclusions though (yet). Just interested is all.
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
Hmmm - Labout have now been behind in four of the last five polls and UK Polling report average has the Tories in a one point lead. The nearer to the election the greater reluctance for change in swing voters. It's not looking good this week for Labour.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
miktheword
Well-Known Member
on its own, means little. Far more depends on the marginals, especially Con - Lab ones; posts have been on this thread recently explaining. A Tory boost by a couple of points nationally means little if they're taking them off Lib Dems in the south west. Labour losing share to SNP similarly means nothing.
Also, most (all?) polls have a built in Tory swing back factor ..many are level until they build that in and 'how did you vote in 2010?'..that means less this time with many Labour staying at home then, many UKIP not voting, and obviously overstates Lib Dem and understates those who have now switched to Labour.
Plus many weight by intention to vote.. The Ipsos Mori I think only had those definitely voting, discounting others totally...advantaging the Tories.
Cameron has a very difficult path to No 10, even with a late swing ..and his best chance includes Clegg holding his seat and being able to carry the members again this time.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
have you been looking at the numbers recently?! Its well known Labour can't get a majority..
virtually certain they will with SNP (more Left than Labour)..Seems as if you've just parachuted in after a few weeks away.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
miktheword
Well-Known Member
so 3 of last 4 polls have Labour ahead yet Guardian comes out with another 'clear lead for Tories' 'polls have definitely shifted' today .. without any details of Ashcroft sampling and Ipsos weighting , whether phone or on-line etc.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
miktheword
Well-Known Member
Ashcroft had his final marginal out today. (does he only publish those that he wants?..he's a Tory after all, and may earlier have published polls as he could perhaps change their policy..too late to do so now..) His sample of marginal is very selective. he says bottom end of Labour targeted for a reason - Peterborough Lab +2, high UKIP, also high migrant labour force.
Anyway, Pudsey seems tied, Norwich North Lab +2, McVey looks in trouble in Wirral, but has Battersea 12 pt Tory lead?! also ahead in Croydon South despite London average swing going the other way.
He also found some shift in Murphy's seat from SNP to Lab..Tory tactical maybe?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/
Ipsos the other day had crossbreaks of Tories winning (big sometimes) amongst DE's, 18-24s, London...some posts saying internally they were nearly not going to publish due to the incredibility of this.
Finally on Methodology, Populus the other day have just changed their allocation of DKs to 2010 vote , putting Labour back and increasing Tory, Lib Dem giving a tie.. Labour ahead before that.
Anyway, Pudsey seems tied, Norwich North Lab +2, McVey looks in trouble in Wirral, but has Battersea 12 pt Tory lead?! also ahead in Croydon South despite London average swing going the other way.
He also found some shift in Murphy's seat from SNP to Lab..Tory tactical maybe?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/
Ipsos the other day had crossbreaks of Tories winning (big sometimes) amongst DE's, 18-24s, London...some posts saying internally they were nearly not going to publish due to the incredibility of this.
Finally on Methodology, Populus the other day have just changed their allocation of DKs to 2010 vote , putting Labour back and increasing Tory, Lib Dem giving a tie.. Labour ahead before that.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Im not sure i can take another week of obsessive poll watching and the stress it produces. You Gov and panelbase polls are consistantly showing lab and tory in a dead heat - with labour maybe shading it by ball hair. Other pollsters are less consistent but MORI, Ashcroft - keep recently given the tories leads of 4-6% - enough for them to scrape some sort of majority together.
I think that the you gov polling is more reliable - but I am definitely not certain. The spectre of 1992 still lingers. There may be a number of 'shy' tories out there.
Thursday is going to be a long, anxious, night.
I think that the you gov polling is more reliable - but I am definitely not certain. The spectre of 1992 still lingers. There may be a number of 'shy' tories out there.
Thursday is going to be a long, anxious, night.
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
It's just that they allocate the present DKs on the basis of their (recalled) 2010 choice. The vermin and collaborators did better than Lab in 2010...so...that methodological tweak slightly enhances the coalition parties polling number.I don't really undestand the implications of this I must confess ...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
In all honesty I'm quite suspicious of the notion of DKs altogether. I think that a majority of interviewees claiming DK status are merely those people unwilling to reveal (shy/embarrassed/guilty) or lacking the confidence/self-esteem to express a preference. I think most people do know tbh.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
I'd think the lib-dems would be the biggest beneficiaries of that. There was a lot of them - "don't know, but not them" is probably a common answer among the 50ish % of their voters they've dropped, yet would be reallocated to their 2010 vote.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
For anyone interested in the polling issues around DKs, and various attempts to overcome the problem, this is a good little account...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-dont-knows
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-dont-knows
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