Political polling

[redsquirrel]

another prediction from Nate Silver - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32488206

he really has no idea

Really don't know why people go to him for UK elections. US ok, fine but his prediction for 2010 was rubbish and it's not like there's not loads of British pollsters they could have on

 

[kabbes]

I turned over to that programme, saw them earnestly explain to me what "first past the post" means and turned it off again.

 

[Quartz]

Labour facing wipe-out in Scotland, per the Telegraph. TNS-BMRB polling source here.

SNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1)

 

[Dogsauce]

Must be a dream for the SNP - simultaneously scooping up anyone vaguely to the left of labour wanting a more progressive choice whilst also picking up tactical tories and lib dem that see a scottish wipeout for Labour as improving their own chances of arguing for power in the wider UK.

 

[Santino]

I turned over to that programme, saw them earnestly explain to me what "first past the post" means and turned it off again.

It annoys me constantly, because the phrase implies that there are other candidates who pass the post but, by virtue of being slower than the first to do so, are not elected. When the truth is that there is no post.

 

[brogdale]

Last night's YG/Scum poll...



e2a: YG's lowest UKIP number for 9 months.

 

[brogdale]

It annoys me constantly, because the phrase implies that there are other candidates who pass the post but, by virtue of being slower than the first to do so, are not elected. When the truth is that there is no post.

It is a weak metaphor, but the 'post' of a plurality of the the votes cast does exist.

 

[bi0boy]

I turned over to that programme, saw them earnestly explain to me what "first past the post" means and turned it off again.

I thought I'd tuned into Newsbeat, and than I realised, no, it was actually Panorama, that flagship BBC current affairs program.

Really don't know why people go to him for UK elections. US ok, fine but his prediction for 2010 was rubbish and it's not like there's not loads of British pollsters they could have on

It can be interesting to get an outsider's view, but not if it's only a tool to explain what everyone already knows.

 

[danny la rouge]

"New STV/Ipsos Mori poll shows SNP on course to win EVERY seat in Scotland"

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides...t-to-win-all-scots-seats-at-general-election/

 

[Dogsauce]

That'd be incredible if it pans out, especially as it'll dent tory/lib dem coalition prospects a fair bit.

 

[danny la rouge]

That'd be incredible if it pans out, especially as it'll dent tory/lib dem coalition prospects a fair bit.

I'm still guessing 30 -40 rather than 55 -59. But the polls disagree.

 

[danny la rouge]

Labour on 20%, only 3 points ahead of the Tories on 17%.

That's worth reading again.

 

[Santino]

Labour on 20%, only 3 points ahead of the Tories on 17%.

That's worth reading again.

I can't believe it. 17% of Scots might vote Tory?

 

[danny la rouge]

I can't believe it. 17% of Scots might vote Tory?

That's about right. I think it was 16% in 2010.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yup, 16.7% in fact.

 

[danny la rouge]

Latest Scottish poll of polls:

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/...westminster-vote-intentions-27-april-revised/

 

[Quartz]

"New STV/Ipsos Mori poll shows SNP on course to win EVERY seat in Scotland"

I rather doubt that, what with the Shetlands and Orkneys voting so heavily against independence. We'll see next week.

 

[danny la rouge]

I rather doubt that, what with the Shetlands and Orkneys voting so heavily against independence. We'll see next week.

What do you doubt?

I personally don't think this will happen, but it isn't a prediction, it's a poll. Do you doubt the poll?

 

[danny la rouge]

I rather doubt that, what with the Shetlands and Orkneys voting so heavily against independence. We'll see next week.

Also, here's where we are in Scottish politics: your quibble is that there's one seat you don't think the SNP can win.

 

[marty21]

What are the odds on a SNP clean sweep of the 59 seats - ? Might be worth a punt

 

[DotCommunist]

earlier in the year the polls had those islands as a lib dem stronghold. iirc.

 

[Dogsauce]

earlier in the year the polls had those islands as a lib dem stronghold. iirc.

Maybe we could offer them to Argentina?

 

[danny la rouge]

Maybe we could offer them to Argentina?

The Lib Dems? Yes, I'm all for that.

 

[killer b]

What have Argentina done to deserve that?

 

[danny la rouge]

What have Argentina done to deserve that?

Inspired a Lloyd Webber musical.

 

[marty21]

What have Argentina done to deserve that?

The Hand of God

 

[miktheword]

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-conservative-labour-battlegrounds-poll/


Comres have better news for Labour in 50 most marginal, 3 pt average lead.

 

[Quartz]

Labour could squeak an outright victory if there's anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland and the Tories continue to lose voters to UKIP in England.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Labour could squeak an outright victory if there's anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland and the Tories continue to lose voters to UKIP in England.

 

[William of Walworth]

brogdale : Something tells me I should have checked the link myself instead of just taking another poster's word for it ...

Or checked the link and seen that the poster was taking the word of ICM?

Yeah, I did pick up on that 'wrong source' thing a little while after, so various 's again ... just haven't been on here for a while to plead stupidity as a defence of idiocy