Political polling

[belboid]

Bet the LibDems are happy that proportional representation lark isn't happening now.

8% = 52 seats, more than they'll be getting now

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

If they can manage to drop to 5%-ish but somehow retain 30 seats, they'll finally have achieved full PR. The AV referendum and the coalition, the tuition fees - it was all just a clever ploy all along masking their real aim.

 

[danny la rouge]

SNP 54% in this TNS poll.

 

[JTG]

These SNP figures are getting mental

 

[danny la rouge]

These SNP figures are getting mental

Murphy was supposed to get these down. He's done the opposite: they've gone higher than anyone thought possible.

 

[belboid]

Murphy was supposed to get these down. He's done the opposite: they've gone higher than anyone thought possible.

Funny that. Who'd have thought Scots have blatantly had enough of Blairite bullshit?

Oh yes, everyone outside of the Labour Party.

 

[danny la rouge]

That TNS poll would give SNP 57 seats. We're used to hearing these huge figures now, but just take a moment to let that sink in. 57.

 

[belboid]

That TNS poll would give SNP 57 seats. We're used to hearing these huge figures now, but just take a moment to let that sink in. 57.

not bad out of 56

(I know, I do, honest)

 

[brogdale]

That TNS poll would give SNP 57 seats. We're used to hearing these huge figures now, but just take a moment to let that sink in. 57.

That allows Miliband in with mid 260s.

 

[danny la rouge]

not bad out of 56

(I know, I do, honest)

Lol.

Now, I think it's doubtful it'll be quite as much as that. But it's stunning that we're talking in those terms.

 

[danny la rouge]

http://www.scotlandvotes.com

 

[brogdale]

The Guardian’s ICM poll is just out. It gives the Conservatives a 3-point lead, up 1 from last week. Here the start of Tom Clark’s story.

Conservative support has edged up in the latest Guardian/ICM campaign poll, with David Cameron’s party registering a three-point lead over Labour.

The Tories have advanced by one percentage point on the previous ICM survey a week ago, to stand at 35%. Labour stands still on 32%.

Ukip is up by two, on 13 points, which is their highest with ICM since last December, while the Liberal Democrats drop back one, to 9%. The Greens are unchanged on 5%.

The telephone fieldwork took place from Friday to Sunday, a weekend in which the Tories have continued to focus their campaign on warnings against “the coalition of chaos” which they say would result if Labour ended up being propped up in government by the Scottish National party.

Consistent with other telephone-based polling.

 

[butchersapron]

UKIP almost doubling their polling from week before last there.

 

[brogdale]

UKIP almost doubling their polling from week before last there.

Which undermines Smithson's 'shy-kipper'/phone poll thesis.

 

[treelover]

Is this significant, hasn't Guardian/ICM consistently shown the Tories in the lead?

Does this mean that the UK basically has a 'conservative majority' including UKIP, and is a small C Conservative country, at least amongst those that vote.

 

[butchersapron]

Which undermines Smithson's 'shy-kipper'/phone poll thesis.

Yep. Look at the lib-dems in that second chart. Shameless.

 

[belboid]

Does this mean that the UK basically has a 'conservative majority' including UKIP, and is a small C Conservative country, at least amongst those that vote.

No

 

[treelover]

That ranks it as less important than education (8%) and resolving the deficit (7%), but more important than Europe (4%), pensions (3%) and crime and disorder, which only 2% of those surveyed name as their chief concern.

Incredible that crime is only a major concern for 2%, in the 80's it was much much more. Oh, and welfare is nowhere to be seen, yet all parties plan more 'reform'

 

[treelover]

No

I was waiting for that,
please expand.

 

[killer b]

It means people's voting choices are based on more complex criteria than where they sit on a simple conservative>liberal axis

 

[danny la rouge]

I was waiting for that,
please expand.

Not all people voting UKIP are doing so out of agreement with UKIP's policy agenda.

 

[belboid]

I was waiting for that,
please expand.

anyone taking a single election result, or even a couple, as meaning 'the UK basically has a 'conservative majority' ' is a complete idiot.

 

[treelover]

That is why I asked, I wasn't agreeing with the question, believe it or not plenty of posters on here don't have all the answers and want to find out what others may think, even know.

 

[Fez909]

Also, 35% is not a majority.

 

[belboid]

That is why I asked, I wasn't agreeing with the question, believe it or not plenty of posters on here don't have all the answers and want to find out what others may think, even know.

what's the point in asking a completely stupid question?

Would Boris being exposed as a Martian affect his chances of becoming PM?

 

[brogdale]

 

[brogdale]

 

[Hocus Eye.]

what's the point in asking a completely stupid question?

Would Boris being exposed as a Martian affect his chances of becoming PM?

He is not is he? If so I think his residential qualification outweighs his origin as I understand it.

 

[William of Walworth]

brogdale re Ashcroft's poll :

According to miktheword in the GE2015 thread the headline figures slightly mask somewhat stronger Labour polling in marginals/battleground seats (South of Scotland, obvs).

 

[brogdale]

brogdale re Ashcroft's poll :

According to miktheword in the GE2015 thread the headline figures slightly mask somewhat stronger Labour polling in marginals/battleground seats (South of Scotland, obvs).

I can't see what he is referring to and I can't really understand what he means. People need to link to what they're talking about.