butchersapron
Bring back hanging
We'll see soon.I expect so.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
miktheword
Well-Known Member
they're all over the place. 4 Labour (smallish) leads, five now; four Tory (bigger ones) but ComRes haven't had a Labour lead all year, have dropped online polls now apparently, which mostly show Labour leads (consistent Tory leads by different pollsters are all phone polls)
also UKIP has been between 12 and 18% today..!? Survation had Tories ahead of Labour in North of England?!....many thinking Labour 29% with Tories down and Libdems up could be Red Libs going back, maybe tactically and regionally south-west.
and survation now have Farage up by 9% over Tories in South Thanet..
didn't Guardian have them third two days ago?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Was only a week ago, or so, that someone was criticising the pollsters of 'herding' based on that Nate Silver shite.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
How come they don't all agree with each other if they're right?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Seems to have been named.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, unlike that 'neck and neck' one from last week.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
miktheword
Well-Known Member
Populus @PopulusPolls
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (+1), Con 32 (-), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (-1), Greens 5 (+1), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://popu.lu/sVI240415
11:23 AM - 24 Apr 2015
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (+1), Con 32 (-), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (-1), Greens 5 (+1), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://popu.lu/sVI240415
11:23 AM - 24 Apr 2015
The polls cannot be an accurate prediction of the election because they are based on proportional representation and the real elections are fptp. My guess is that we end up with another hung parliament. Someone asked me yesterday what the politicians would do if nobody voted for anyone as a protest. The idea appeals to me. The idea that is of there being no government at all. Is it too late to organise a complete boycott of the General Election?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Sorry that's utter nonsense, it doesn't even make any sense.
Polls attempt to measure the share of the vote each party will receive (well it's a bit more complicated than that because different polls are trying to measure slightly different things but it's close enough). And these days are really pretty accurate,
That's a separate thing to the models that predict the number of seats that each party will get, though many/most of those models use polling data as a input. These models do take into account the fact that we use FPTP, indeed even the most crude model, Uniform National Swing, is based on the fact that the UK uses the FPTP system. Sorry but you're simply talking rubbish.
Is there any political subject about which you don't not know anything?
I agree that the polls estimate the share of the vote that a party might be expected to get from a snapshot taken at a particular time in the electoral process. However people who go on to calculate the final election results based on this do not consider the effect of the voting system on the result.
I know nothing, I am from Barcelona.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Ashcroft has just released his latest batch of marginal polling...
BriUrbs might well be interested in this set:-
BriUrbs might well be interested in this set:-
racist
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
So 321 it is then?
Having considered 326, 323, and 321...I see that, under their seat projection graphics, the Guardian has included this note....
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
wonder how far back you'd have to go to find Lab just 9% ahead of the vermin?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Well, I'm sticking by 321 tbh, but clearly the Guardian think 323 is required to "secure a majority". I think I'll try to ask them how they've got to that figure, because if my assumptions about SF and 'Denison's rule' applying to all 4 speakers/deputies are correct, then 321 would suffice. This sort of stuff could become very important.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Latest on Sheffield Hallam? Anyone?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
nowt new. Lots of Labourites working their arses off - an endorsement from a former Tory candidate, Coppard refusing to turn up to a Save the NHS demo, but popping along at the end for a bit of canvassing.
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