Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
maomao
普費斯
It's got Truss in the photo. When was the data collected?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
ska invita
back on the other side
Red Kent
there was a short four point bounce for Sunak but that seems about the scale of it
Who the hell is still voting for the Libdems?
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Tactical voters who will vote for anyone but Tory to keep them out
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
2010
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Just revving up my broken record on this though, I do think Labour's empty suit/lack of policies/lack of alternative positioning and identity is going to be a major factor in 2024. Labour will also lose just about every televised debate as well, because they've nothing to say. Pointless doing % predictions, but I could see it being something like Labour winning the popular vote by something like 38% to 36%. What is even beyond my pointless speculation is how much the Libdems will get in England. That could be quite important, for example if the pattern is Lab beating the tories in the north and libdems winning various bits of the South and West.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
The biggest problem Labour face is that they aren't actually ahead in the polls because they are popular it's because the Tories are so unpopular. If the Tories actually manage to make some progess on the major issues and they still have over 2 years then support will swing back to them. Starmer is doing his best not to improve Labour's standing as well. His recent statements about abandoning any traces of Corbynism are a sign of that. Yes Corbyn himself was unpopular with many voters but some of his policies like renationalising energy distribution, water and the railways were striking a chord with a lot of voters. If people are going to vote for Conservative policies they might as well just vote for the Conservatives and be done with it. Labour should be offering alternatives not the same thing with a different label on it.
ska invita
back on the other side
this is fucked up if true...add in voter suppression and uk's limited democracy looks to be taking a massive step backwards
...and if is true would proportional representation address the problem?
...and if is true would proportional representation address the problem?
clusterfarce
Member
In 1997 Labour won 43% so the same as in that poll. The Lib Dems 16.8% and the Tories 30%, in the above poll they are on 8% while the Greens take up 6%. Currently the Tories are about 29% so there and there abouts.
Labour won 418 seats, this has Labour on 323 but the SNP on 48 for a combined 371, this easily explains the lack of majority. The tories winning 237 vs the 165 they won in 97. The Lib Dems won 46 seats. The Tories winning 35% of the seats is a slight advantage on PR, Labour on 49% is significantly better than their vote share. 20/650 the Lib Dems concede about 5% of their vote share to 3% of parliamentary seats and the Greens and Refrendum are the biggest losers with about 12% of votes for 1 seat between them.
The boundary changes play a role, but its smaller than the rise of the SNP and to a lesser degree the death of the Lib Dems in terms of seat allocation.
Though the boundary changes would be much starker on near run elections, but in a near run election Labour relying on the SNP will be a huge issue for voters.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
only a kind of PR that I don't think anywhere on there planet actually uses
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I guess the ID requirement is the voter suppression but what is the limited democracy bit?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
FPTP, the majority of seats are safe so it doesn't matter how most people vote. The election will be decided by maybe 200K-300K swing voters who live in 100-150 or so marginal seats. If you're not one of those then it really doesn't matter whether you go to the polls or not.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I read ska’s post as asking whether PR would address ‘limited democracy’ . Are you saying that ‘limited democracy’ is not having PR ?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I would definitely agree with that statement yes (not sure if ska does) I'm not saying PR is a cure all but it would certainly be better than what we have now.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I'll make the same point I made on the voter suppression thread - how are they modelling the conversation from share of vote to seats?
During the last decade Labour's vote has tended to be inefficiently distributed.
But this was not always the case. Go back to the New Labour years, or even during Miliband's time, the distribution of Labour vote was better than the Tories.
Seeing as though Labour have made a constant effort to appeal to swing voters, at the price of disappointing many of their core voters, while the Tories have lost support I'm skeptical that the distribution of votes will be the same as in 2019 (or 2017). In fact, as things stand at present I think there is a good chance that Labours vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Tories.
I'm highly skeptical that the currently suggested boundary changes are the issue. Yes there is a benefit to the Tories from the boundary changes but there are far more significant factors.
NB: The dates on those UKPR links are borked the first os from ~2017, I think the second dates from between 2010 and 2015.
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