Political polling

[steeplejack]

The pearl clutching about this is hilarious.

Sturgeon accused of using ‘dangerous language’ about Tories

Scottish first minister said she ‘detested’ Conservatives and wanted a Labour government in London

www.theguardian.com

Yes, of course the Tories have never ever ever used divisive language about refugees, "woke culture" (if it exists beyond social media), benefits claimants, foreigners...

the polls referred to in this thread suggesrts that "detesting" the Tories is a pretty mainstream position in 2022. The problem is getting them out as soon as possible- they will do everything to cling on grimly for another two years and destroy as much as they can in the process.

 

[Wilf]

Yes, of course the Tories have never ever ever used divisive language about refugees, "woke culture" (if it exists beyond social media), benefits claimants, foreigners...

the polls referred to in this thread suggesrts that "detesting" the Tories is a pretty mainstream position in 2022. The problem is getting them out as soon as possible- they will do everything to cling on grimly for another two years and destroy as much as they can in the process.

I've long posted up the idea that Labour's leads were soggy - back when they were a wee 10% to the 25%+ now (Labour having no policies that resonate, no real way of connecting to cost of living anger, a deeply shit leader, that kind of thing). I'm starting to think about it the other way round now - what can the tories do to turn this around? If truss remains, with all the ideological madness that inspired the budget and a genuine desire to do the most visible things that benefit the rich, there can be no way back. She'd have to do mental backflips if she was to increase core public spending or start jacking up NHS salaries, say. I could see her hurling money at pensioners before the next election, with what remains of the public finances, but not much else.

The real stupidity was going for the top tax rate at a time of austerity (well and even more in terms of the things that your advisers - or GCSE Economics students - should have spotted with regard to markets). There are plenty of other, less overt, ways of hurling money at 'entrepreneurs', doing this wasn't just ideological, it was crass stupidity. The tories were always going to struggle in the next election, but this was almost inexplicable as a strategy.

 

[brogdale]

largest lead for ANY party that we've recorded.

 

[ska invita]

interestingly Truss did get an election win bounce (my red arrows)
they really fucked it up eh

 

[JimW]

Not looking good for the Dems

 

[brogdale]

Really quite something:

 

[agricola]

I've long posted up the idea that Labour's leads were soggy - back when they were a wee 10% to the 25%+ now (Labour having no policies that resonate, no real way of connecting to cost of living anger, a deeply shit leader, that kind of thing). I'm starting to think about it the other way round now - what can the tories do to turn this around? If truss remains, with all the ideological madness that inspired the budget and a genuine desire to do the most visible things that benefit the rich, there can be no way back. She'd have to do mental backflips if she was to increase core public spending or start jacking up NHS salaries, say. I could see her hurling money at pensioners before the next election, with what remains of the public finances, but not much else.

The real stupidity was going for the top tax rate at a time of austerity (well and even more in terms of the things that your advisers - or GCSE Economics students - should have spotted with regard to markets). There are plenty of other, less overt, ways of hurling money at 'entrepreneurs', doing this wasn't just ideological, it was crass stupidity. The tories were always going to struggle in the next election, but this was almost inexplicable as a strategy.

Indeed. The daftest thing about it is that it is that it took away their best argument - the "we can't afford it" one.

A competent government could have said that, due to the energy price measures, that they couldn't afford to increase public sector pay to keep pace with inflation (and that the measures will benefit public sector workers anyway) and it would have been difficult to challenge. Instead they've managed to suggest that they can afford to make the rich richer whilst also looking so weak that people think (probably correctly) that strike action will work. This is not something that is going to be sustainable for very long and its hard to see how this government gets any support.

One might almost think it was deliberate, some attempt to kill off the "zombie economy" and then build a utopia. That they'd probably have ended up dangling from lamp-posts may not have occurred to them.

 

[Knotted]

Not looking good for the Dems

No it isn't and I find this very surprising. They've been doing very well in by-elections in the so-called blue wall and I would think that they would benefit from the Tory vote collapse. But no. They are actually getting outshone by Keir Starmer!

 

[Raheem]

No it isn't and I find this very surprising. They've been doing very well in by-elections in the so-called blue wall and I would think that they would benefit from the Tory vote collapse. But no. They are actually getting outshone by Keir Starmer!

Probably the thing is that people mostly want the Tories out, so they will vote for whoever can deliver that, which is Labour in far more places than it is the Lib Dems.

 

[Knotted]

Probably the thing is that people mostly want the Tories out, so they will vote for whoever can deliver that, which is Labour in far more places than it is the Lib Dems.

But the Lib Dem vote has been pretty static instead of getting a smaller portion of the Tory vote, it seems they getting none of it. I don't have an explanation for this.

 

[Elpenor]

Not looking good for the Dems

Davey is somehow even more anonymous than Starmer

 

[Bingoman]

Davey is somehow even more anonymous than Starmer

I think come near election time their vote could pick up but I think this more down to the fact that people are fed up with the government out and latched on to the Labour party

 

[ska invita]

Davey is somehow even more anonymous than Starmer

I couldn't name him, and by tomorrow I'll have forgotten what I just read

 

[JimW]

I was really only doing that joke from US politics. Try not to think about Lib Dems if I can avoid it.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[brogdale]

JFF & obviously quite ludicrous and all that...but gotta love a poll that yields a seat projection making the SNP a bigger party than the vermin!

 

[Elpenor]

JFF & obviously quite ludicrous and all that...but gotta love a poll that yields a seat projection making the SNP a bigger party than the vermin!

Virtually all of Devon going red - that’s incredible

 

[Dogsauce]

JFF & obviously quite ludicrous and all that...but gotta love a poll that yields a seat projection making the SNP a bigger party than the vermin!

Wouldn’t that make them the official opposition? That would actually be quite funny.

 

[Dogsauce]

Labour 570
SNP 51
LD 7
Con 3
Green 1
Others/NI (remaining)

I want to know who those three Tory MPs would be, who would be the leader? Imagine if it was Dorries, Fabricant and Rosindale. Also what kind of fuckholes would be the last three places in the country to put them into parliament?

 

[ItStillWontWork]

On a serious note, would a government with almost 5 times as many seats as the next biggest party be a good thing? It seems a pretty terrifying prospect to me, whatever party it was.

 

[brogdale]

On a serious note, would a government with almost 5 times as many seats as the next biggest party be a good thing? It seems a pretty terrifying prospect to me, whatever party it was.

I wouldn't overly worry; there always pre-election poll convergence and there's a way to go yet for the billionaire press to work their 'magic'.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Davey is somehow even more anonymous than Starmer

I read that, went down stairs and asked Mrs Sas (who is not a political animal) who the leader of the Lib Dems was. She didn't know. Doesn't bode well for them.

 

[Fairweather]

I want to know who those three Tory MPs would be, who would be the leader? Imagine if it was Dorries, Fabricant and Rosindale. Also what kind of fuckholes would be the last three places in the country to put them into parliament?

Iain, Duncan and Smith according to Paul Merton on hignfy last night.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Wilf]

I'm the Private Fraser, Cassandra style voice of doom, but I'd expect these poll leads to be back to 10-15% within, who knows, 2 weeks? A good % of the volatility is simply a reaction to the madness, not really voting intentions. The only thing that keeps the leads at 20%+ is the wildcard, completely unexpected, off the wall outcome of the PM staying in office. Well, more specifically:

Truss stays in office - leads 20%+
Slow unraveling of her leadership through letters to graham brady, cabinet ministers resigning - ditto.
Interest rates staying high and mortgage rises happening as planned - ditto.

Cunt or sunak taking over as interim leader, interest rates fall back - back to the baseline 10-15% leads of the glorious johnson era.

 

[elbows]

Doubt it will recover to that extent at all.

 

[killer b]

I can't see them falling back that low - a crisis this substantial causes lasting damage - we might not see 30+ leads once things aren't so hyper, but it's not going back down to 10 anytime soon

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm the Private Fraser, Cassandra style voice of doom, but I'd expect these poll leads to be back to 10-15% within, who knows, 2 weeks? A good % of the volatility is simply a reaction to the madness, not really voting intentions. The only thing that keeps the leads at 20%+ is the wildcard, completely unexpected, off the wall outcome of the PM staying in office. Well, more specifically:

Truss stays in office - leads 20%+
Slow unraveling of her leadership through letters to graham brady, cabinet ministers resigning - ditto.
Interest rates staying high and mortgage rises happening as planned - ditto.

Cunt or sunak taking over as interim leader, interest rates fall back - back to the baseline 10-15% leads of the glorious johnson era.

Except that they were already behind by about 10% when Johnson was booted out. And they no longer have Brexit to get done. What do they offer?

I'm amazed their support is still in double digits right now, tbh, but it appears there is a hardcore of about 20% who'll vote for them whatever they do. But I don't see getting the rest back as an easy task.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

On a less upbeat note, Major's government was clearly fucked for a long time before it was booted out but it still did a lot of damage in that time, notably the privatisation of rail.

 

[Wilf]

Except that they were already behind by about 10% when Johnson was booted out. And they no longer have Brexit to get done. What do they offer?

I'm amazed their support is still in double digits right now, tbh, but it appears there is a hardcore of about 20% who'll vote for them whatever they do. But I don't see getting the rest back as an easy task.

I didn't put it well, but the bold bit was what I meant. I suppose with the rest of it, we live in profoundly fucked up times and that is reflected in the polls. But there will come a point when this returns to being Lab v Con again. In some senses it's not so much 'what have they got to offer', it's about who is fighting who. Daft to predict what will happen in 2 years, but my pointless tilt at that would be a Labour win, with a small advantage in the popular vote.