Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
You should be calling each other cunts by now
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
I’m amazed we haven’t both had a temporary ban for not doing so. I’ll try better next time. Sorry...
ska invita
back on the other side
Agreeing to a customs unions at a minimum would've been the compromise - not just for federalism, but for the brexit divide in general - but too late now. The Tories have had their way.
...
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Leaving aside danny's predictably tedious contrarianism on football, your analysis of politics in contemporary Scotland isn't really one that I recognise. In fact your directionless waffle on "dream states" and "nostalgia laden myopia" are slightly more verbose developments of positions more normally found in the pages of The Spectator. That somehow SNP support is the result of a captive trance, that people are voting for one thing oblivious to the centre-right Blairite triangulation at the party's core.
Could it be that the political majority in Scotland are actually broadly gathered around that Blairite consensus, with the only vehicle to achieve it now focused on independence?
The wider pro-independence movement in Scotland is much broader than that dour, centrist, centralising pragmatism on offer from the SNP. Many people "of the left" in Scotland vote for the SNP in lieu of any better alternative. Many who voted no in 2014 are now stridently yes, simply because of the blatant lies that were told last time- two of which related to EU membership. We were told that we'd lose our EU membership automaticaly in event a Yes vote and aparently would be "behind Turkey" in the re-application "queue" which doesn't actually exist. And yet here we are five years later, as the result of different lies told by the same people. Leaving aside the frightening of old Dorises about the loss of their pension in the event of independence.
It's stuff like this which hardens support around a pro-independence position as much as anything the SNP say or do. I am keenly looking forward to the implosion of the SNP after independence. Oddly, only independence offers any hope of renewal to the old Brit parties. They are dead in the water until then. Similarly, the revivial of a class and trade-union based left won't happen until a fiundamental shift to an independent Scots political landscape, rather than a devolved one.
The old "British" left have always been pretty terrible at understanding nationalist positions in Scotland, Wales and Ireland, tbh, not least its evolution from the position you outline above (which probably last had a serious say at leadership level in the SNP in the mid 80s). The broader sadness is that the class based position you are ouitlining have as much traction in contemporary political discourse in Scotland as chartism or the corn laws. It's battle re-enactment society stuff.
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
Your post actually reminded me of a lot of calls for a "strong, disciplined and self-confident working class movement" from the days on here when the IWCA was prominent, about 15-20 years back. And here we are further away from that than ever. If a mention of the IWCA doesn't bring Joe "the Red Baron" Reilly out of hiding to try and shoot me down in flames then nothing will.
ska invita
back on the other side
theres way too much 'perception' and projection involved with these topics. I don't know how familiar you are with the home counties and commuter belts where the older wealthier voters made up the core of the Brexit vote, but the notion that these people are deep antiestablishmentarians (lol never used that word before) is as convincing as Nigel Farage's claim to be one.
I absolutely agree with these bits. I think often there's a conflation between 'supporting independence' and 'supporting the SNP'. For many people, voting for the latter is a means to the former and nothing more. And the SNP membership is a very broad church indeed. That would all change if independence happens and is absolutely the only conceivable chance Labour has got in Scotland.
I live in England and the different interactions in Scotland of class, geography, religion, unionism and nationalism are really not understood/considered. Which I guess is not that surprising given a lot of it is not that clear to the casual viewer.
I've also been asked a couple of times in the last few days whether Devo Max would be a possibility
.
The following is maddeningly shite even by the Guardian's low standards:
For a start, the WECA covers all of S Glos & BaNES (not 'parts') and somehow they seem to have left out one of the largest cities in England from their description. It is the Bristol Labour vote that they will need to turn out in high numbers if they want to take the mayoralty from the Tories so you'd have thought it might have been important to mention
Then there's this idea that winning in the Bristol metro area would signify a shift towards 'the southern middle classes'. Given that the 1997-2005 Blair years saw the region return 5 or 6 Labour MPs (all four Bristol seats - losing West in 05, Kingswood and Wansdyke which got boundary changed into NE Somerset and now returns JRM to Westminster), Labour has either run the council or been the largest party in Bristol for all but eight years since 1973 and S Glos/BaNES retains pockets of working class Labour support in Kingswood, Paulton, Patchway, Twerton etc it's a bit of a fucking liberty to suggest that this suggests anything is particularly different now.
All in all, it helps push the narrative that Red Wall areas are Labour heartlands while inner city Bristol, or traditional working class Somserset villages aren't and they can fuck off with that
As it is, I'd be quite surprised if Labour took the metro mayor. The candidate is Dan Norris - former Blairite MP for Wansdyke who voted for war in Iraq after the selection process was stitched up by regional office - and he's inspired deep resentment amongst a big chunk of the Bristol Labour left. They got fairly close in 2017 and may be helped by the fact that Bristol has its own mayor and council elections held over from last year so possibly a bigger turnout than the rest of the region. Even so, trying to get suburban S Glos and Bath to vote Labour is a very tough ask and just won't happen.
Incidentally, regional are busy stitching up the Bristol council candidate selections as well with a swathe of unexplained suspensions and reselections so don't expect a motivated young/left base for these. If you pushed me I'd say Marvin Rees will be reelected but Labour may well lose the council
tbf I'm not certain it's possible for Labour to go much lower there (until they do) and they've done fuck all to go higher. Ditto the SNP are surely maxed out or thereabouts.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
Campaign strike?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not knocking on doors or delivering leaflets.
Aye. Some Momentumites in Bristol have been suspended on spurious grounds and their cases dragged out so that they can be replaced as council candidates without any due process. These include young and BAME members. Given regional office seem to be able to supercede pretty much any attempt at local democracy, up to and including suspending members and postponing CLP AGMs etc, it seems Bristol Momentum's last resort is simply not to campaign - or to only campaign for candidates who have signed their statement anyway. Given they turned out 100s for the GE campaign in 2019 and still have enough clout to have been reasonably sure of winning most of the Bristol West officer roles until regional postponed the AGM and doled out suspensions, this could actually be quite harmful to Labour's campaign in the city
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yep. The council majority is slim and I'd expect them to lose it tbh given the last elections were 2016 at the height of Corbyn-mania and the anti-Ferguson wave as well. Without a load of leafleters and canvassers (even if by telephone depending on circs) they could lose several tight seats to all three opposition parties. Marvin will probably get home but they're certainly talking about an all out refusal to campaign for Dan Norris as WoE mayor
Haha. Tbf we had a decade or so of Lib Dem rule before they regained control so, you know...
From my facebook bubble there appears to have been gradual leakage as the reality of Captain Electable hits home - the Remain fixated non partisan liberals are losing faith in him and I wouldn't be surprised if they're trickling back to the LDs. Younger, more precarious radical types attracted by JC seem more inclined to head for the Greens or not voting. As the right's grip on the party tightens (see Starmer thread for Bristol West shenanigans, soon to be repeated in other CLPs across the West for example) I'd expect to see a lot more of these folks exiting for other alternatives. Welsh polling may be particularly instructive at this pointThe streak of piss party knocking on double figure %...FFS
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Hold on. I’ve obviously not been paying attention. Who are REFUK?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
It's the Brexit Party as relaunched on 06/01/2021 as Reform UK; or ReFuck
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Passed me by.
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