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Pandemic personal consequences

S☼I said:
So Mrs SI is due to take her LFT tests at the end of Covid tomorrow and Wednesday. Assuming she tests negative both days and can therefore technically stop isolating, how infectious is she likely to be? I'm triple jabbed but son has had no jabs, and one of the first things she's going to want to do is hug him. What are the risks to him and me (I'll presumably be back to sharing a bed with her Weds night provided those LFTs are negative).
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You can test positive for a long time after having covid, even if you're not infectious any more.

There won't be any real risks to him. He's the risky one, but obvs you know that.
 
The lateral flow tests are a pretty good guide to infectiousness but they arent perfect.

Here is analysis which was used to change the self-isolation rules:

Our modelling suggests that a 7-day self-isolation period, when combined with 2 consecutive negative LFD tests starting on day 6 and taken 24 hours apart, has nearly the same effect as a 10-day self-isolation period without LFD testing.

After 10 days self-isolation, 5% of people will still be infectious. Ending self-isolation after 7 days and two negative LFD tests results in a similar level of protection. The two negative test results are critical to safely supporting the end of self-isolation: if self-isolation ended on day 7 without testing, modelling suggests that 16% of people would still be infectious.
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ukhsa.blog.gov.uk

Using lateral flow tests to reduce the self-isolation period – UK Health Security Agency

The official blog of the UK Health Security Agency, providing expert insight on the organisation's work and all aspects of health security
ukhsa.blog.gov.uk ukhsa.blog.gov.uk
 
Since supermarket risk came up in conversation here very recently, I suppose I should like to this study which I just bumped into when looking at government SAGE documents from December. Its not supermarket specific but it still offers some clues.


Logistic regression analyses were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) controlling for demographic factors and vaccination. Adjusted Population attributable fractions (APAF) were calculated for different classes of activity based on the following formula APAF = p * (1-1/Relative Risk) where p=proportion of those with COVID-19 who had the exposure of interest and AOR was taken as a proxy for relative risk.

In the second wave of the pandemic when there were intense restrictions:

Leaving home for work - AOR 1.20 (95% CI 1.02 – 1.42), APAF 7%;

Public transport - AOR > once per week 1.82 (1.49 – 2.23), APAF 12%;
Shopping (AOR for shopping > once per week 1.69 (1.29 – 2.21), APAF 35%
Other non-household activities such as use of hospitality and leisure venues were rare due to restrictions and there were no significant associations with infection risk.

In September-November 2021 when there were no restrictions
Leaving home for work AOR 1.20 (1.03-1.98) APAF = 9%,
Public transport more than once per week (AOR 1.28 (1.05-2.02) APAF 14%,
Shopping AOR for weekly shopping 2.18 (1.41-3.47) APAF 36%
Other activities (AOR for > weekly 1.20 (0.97-1.49) APAF 11%

In September-November 2021 for public transport activities there was good evidence of increased risk of transmission for using a bus AOR 1.31 (95% CI 1.07-1.61),
some evidence of increased transmission for using a taxi (1.19 (0.95-1.48),
using an overground train or tram (1.18 (0.95-1.46)
but no evidence for using an underground train (1.02 (0.76-1.36).

In September-November 2021 for other indoor non--household activities other than work, public transport or shopping there was good evidence of increased risk of transmission for those eating at a restaurant, café (AOR 1.29 (95% CI 1.05-1.61),
there was some evidence of increased transmission for going to a pub, bar or club (AOR for attending more than once per week 1.28 (0.99-1.66),
going to a party (1.27 (0.99-1.62), going to the gym or indoor sports (1.27 (0.98-1.63).
There was no good evidence of increased risk of transmission for attending theatres, cinema, concert or sports event (AOR 1.09 (0.89-1.34),
going to a hairdresser, barber, nail salon or beauty parlor (AOR 0.81 (95% CI 0.66-0.99).

In September-November 2021 for outdoor activities there was
Good evidence of increased risk of transmission in those Playing a sport outdoors (1.36 (1.03-1.79)
No good evidence of increased risk from other outdoor activities including being outside at a pub, bar or club, eating outside at a restaurant or café and going to a party outside
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Note that 'no good evidence' can be due to limitations of the study, number of people involved, etc. These exercises are nowhere close to a perfect guide, but may still be of some use.

Both during periods of intense restrictions and no restrictions shopping accounted for the highest proportion of infections acquired outside the home. Going to Work and Public transport use were also important predictors of infection. Intense restrictions largely prevented transmission in hospitality, entertainment, beauty services and sports during the second wave of the pandemic. During a period of no restrictions parties, hospitality were associated with increased risk indoors but not outdoors. Participating in sports indoors or outdoors was associated with increased risk (although this may relate to associated social activities). There was no good evidence of increased risk from attending cinemas, theatres, concerts or indoor sports events or for beauty services.
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Caution. Analyses from September – October are preliminary and have not been peer reviewed. Virus Watch cohort has underrepresentation of younger adults.
Click to expand...
 
S☼I said:
So Mrs SI is due to take her LFT tests at the end of Covid tomorrow and Wednesday. Assuming she tests negative both days and can therefore technically stop isolating, how infectious is she likely to be? I'm triple jabbed but son has had no jabs, and one of the first things she's going to want to do is hug him. What are the risks to him and me (I'll presumably be back to sharing a bed with her Weds night provided those LFTs are negative).
Click to expand...

That's a difficult (impossible?) question to give an easy answer to I think. Someone asked me the same yesterday and I sent them this, but there might be something better out there.

ukhsa.blog.gov.uk

Using lateral flow tests to reduce the self-isolation period – UK Health Security Agency

The official blog of the UK Health Security Agency, providing expert insight on the organisation's work and all aspects of health security
ukhsa.blog.gov.uk ukhsa.blog.gov.uk
 
many of my colleagues have stopped wearing masks. I brought it up this morning and management say there’s nothing they can do.
We were also, coincidentally, all given panic alarms to carry with us at all times. Not sure what for. It certainly won’t scare away a virus!
 
S☼I said:
Much better night for Mrs SI - slept well, feels brighter, has had a negative lft. I knew she was on the up when she made herself a cheese toastie 90 mins after her tea last night :D
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That's good news and encouraging to hear!

I'm feeling less headachy/achey but still +ive LFT and left with an annoying cough, but I'm convincing myself that I can feel the body's battle with the enemy waning a little. Unfortunately Mrs B got het 1st +ive LFT this am...we knew she'd got it a few days ago; it seems to be quite a delay before it shows on the test.
 
Orang Utan said:
many of my colleagues have stopped wearing masks. I brought it up this morning and management say there’s nothing they can do.
We were also, coincidentally, all given panic alarms to carry with us at all times. Not sure what for. It certainly won’t scare away a virus!
Click to expand...

I get so annoyed when I go back home. No one wears a mask when in public, including the local doctor (He does in his office). Its no wonder that their county health statistic rates them as having the highest infection and death rate in the state.
 
I've discovered the wonder that is Instacart. Since I don't want to infect anyone just to get some food, I shopped online and they just dropped it on my porch. Its hella expensive though. It's not something I'll be doing on a regular basis.
 
brogdale said:
That's good news and encouraging to hear!

I'm feeling less headachy/achey but still +ive LFT and left with an annoying cough, but I'm convincing myself that I can feel the body's battle with the enemy waning a little. Unfortunately Mrs B got het 1st +ive LFT this am...we knew she'd got it a few days ago; it seems to be quite a delay before it shows on the test.
Click to expand...
Regarding timing, the BBC used this graphic in a recent article. Its an oversimplification but may still be of interest.

Screenshot 2022-01-11 at 14.36.jpg
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid PCR tests end for asymptomatic cases in England

A positive lateral flow result can now be taken as a first and final confirmation that you have Covid.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
An observation from our own family experience...my 89 YO FiL was +ive asymptomatic in Wave 1 after double Pfizer and I'm pretty certain (we've met no-one else/not been out anywhere else) that we've caught this from one/both of my 89 YO parents who were/are asymptomatic after triple Pfizer. We, on the other hand, are both feeling pretty rough/symptomatic after the AZ/AZ/pfizer booster menu.
 
brogdale said:
my 89 YO FiL was +ive asymptomatic in Wave 1 after double Pfizer
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I'm not catching your drift on that bit given the lack of vaccines in wave 1. Do you mean personal family waves as opposed to pandemic waves?
 
Last edited:
elbows said:
I'm not catching your drift on that bit given the lack of vaccines in wave 1. Do you mean personal family waves as opposed to pandemic waves?
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My bad...brain addled by the fecking virus. Should have said second wave,
He was one of the minority of elderly who had the 3 week gap between Pfizer 1 & 2 and was doubled jabbed on 13th January 2021; he then went on to contract Covid as a hospital acquired infection later that month.
 
Main point that I was trying to get at...is there any evidence that the pfizers gave higher rates of asymptomatic infections than the AZ?
Just that all of our oldies have done very well with infection and yet it's floored us.
 
Poot said:
Arse. I did my day 6 lateral flow and it's come up more positive than an antiodean weather presenter. Looks like I'm in covid prison for the forseeable.
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Incidentally, I did my usual thing of only reading the headline about being able to come out out of isolation after 2 negative lateral flows 24 hours apart, after 7 days, and I thought, 'great!' But when you look at the government's website it tells you that you still shouldn't see anyone, especially anyone vulnerable, so pfft. (It's my Dad's birthday this week.)
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I get so annoyed when I go back home. No one wears a mask when in public, including the local doctor (He does in his office). Its no wonder that their county health statistic rates them as having the highest infection and death rate in the state.
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My manager just spent the Christmas period in the UK (she lives in the Netherlands usually) - she said she had thought non-compliance with rules was bad in Amsterdam, but was totally shocked at what it was like once she arrived back in England ... starting with being herded into a massive queue of people arriving from all over the world with no attempt at social distancing and half of them not wearing masks properly.
 
Sorry if this is a stupid question but if the positive line on your covid test fades a little (in my case on day 4), does this mean you're improving? It was glowing red on days 1 to 3.
 
Hellsbells said:
Sorry if this is a stupid question but if the positive line on your covid test fades a little (in my case on day 4), does this mean you're improving? It was glowing red on days 1 to 3.
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Sort of, yes. But levels may fluctuate within the body and how successfully/how much of the virus is transferred to the swab may also be expected to vary per attempt, so I wouldnt want to over interpret it.
 
elbows said:
Sort of, yes. But levels may fluctuate within the body and how successfully/how much of the virus is transferred to the swab may also be expected to vary per attempt, so I wouldnt want to over interpret it.
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Plus primary locus of infection changes - if the virus is not primarily in your nostrils, you could get a weak result from there, while still being heavily infected elsewhere.

But basically probably yes :) but no but ;-)
 
Yes and on a related note there were the stories that despite the change to LFT instructions meaning people were only told to stick it up their nose, a better picture could still be obtained by doing the throat thing too.
 
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