elbows
Well-Known Member
Omicron: Targeted testing in Nottinghamshire school
Parents are being asked to consent to testing after a case of Omicron was confirmed in Nottingham.
www.bbc.co.uk
Omicron news
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
COVID-19 variants identified in the UK – latest updates
Latest updates on SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in the UK.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
No, you made a heavy inference and put a question mark after it.That's literally what I said
Depressingly virus' don't always evolve to become less lethal. See Ebola and MERS.
The idea is a virus that kills a large percentage of it's hosts has an evolutionary disadvantage. But there are viruses in the wild, like the above that have a 30% (roughly IIRC) lethality rate.
Granted they're unlikely to spread as far as something like coronavirus cos people die or stay out of the way. But I don't think it's a given that all virus's tend towards less lethality.
The idea is a virus that kills a large percentage of it's hosts has an evolutionary disadvantage. But there are viruses in the wild, like the above that have a 30% (roughly IIRC) lethality rate.
Granted they're unlikely to spread as far as something like coronavirus cos people die or stay out of the way. But I don't think it's a given that all virus's tend towards less lethality.
Well wiping out its host will wipe out itself. Although I suppose it could return to the bat reservoir happy that it dealt with climate change.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Portugal acted fast over omicron and just got their bottom slapped by the EU
mx wcfc
Well-Known Member
Whilst I voted remain, the EU can be fucking dicks sometimes.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
I thought MERS was a bacterial infection? Or am I confusing that with MRSA?
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
confused as I think MERS is the viral & MRSA is bacterial.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
I don't know why they wouldn't want to test everyone anyway, regardless of vaccination status. Why leave great big gaps in biosecurity measures? Especially since vaccinated people can still be carriers.
Yeah looked it up, MERS is viral.
One is a highly infectious but dangerous threat whilst the other came second on the X-Factor.
Numbers
an ting!
2nd on X-Factor usually mean more success
Combustible
Well-Known Member
Considering the fact that deaths from Covid usually happen a considerable time after infection, it doesn't seem likely that becoming less lethal would necessarily give it an evolutionary advantage.
mystic pyjamas
Don't call us,we'll call you.
No.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
prunus
Tick tock.
There is a chance, but it’s pretty remote and not really worth spending a second thinking about (yet - it would be a spectacular piece of luck though).
I suspect that this particular virus is still in the optimising for new host phase - ie it will be getting better at transmission and infectivity (omicron seems it may be a jump in that direction, though that may be escape mutation increasing its available pool of hosts). Many of the ways it can improve infectivity are likely to increase virulence too - basically it becomes better at invading our cells, both on first contact and when replicating inside a new host.
Lethality is complex as it is an interaction of the severity of the actual infection (the damage done by the virus itself) and the immune response (the damage done by extreme immune reaction - cytokine storms and the like). It’s not impossible that a more infectious version actually provokes a less over-the-top immune response, which will lead to fewer deaths. But it’s by no means certain, or even particularly likely.
The virus itself doesn’t ‘care’ if it kills all its hosts and die out. It just randomly changes and some of the resultant versions outcompete others and become dominant. If those versions also happen to be less lethal, jolly good. But they may also be more lethal.
In the long run there aren’t any pandemic (ie common and widespread) viruses with very high lethality not because they all become milder over time, but because the lethal ones (and the ones that became more lethal over time) have died out, taking most of their host population with them.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus if there are some specific genetic traits that make some hosts much more susceptible to death from the virus in general, a lot of them may be wiped out, causing the overall population risk of death to change. Not sure how big a factor that actually is though, and there are all the hosts who are vulnerable due to other health conditions.
Some virologists end up perpetuating some of the myths too, since there is not universal agreement on all of the details and expectations, especially when people including authorities and journalists are seeking simplistic, reassuring stories and pictures of a positive future.
There are positive concepts to be found, or at least concepts with more positive end-games. For example even if the virus doesnt change, we do. In that people will have many opportunities to catch various versions of the virus when they are young and less vulnerable to the worst consequences, or even inherit some degree of protection by design or by luck. But I expect my own description of these things is also a bit sloppy and error-prone. Main point is that some of the viral evolution cliches are not grounded in fact.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
The stock markets noticed.
Global markets fall after Moderna Omicron warning
Stock markets slide after Moderna boss casts doubt on vaccine effectiveness against new variant.
www.bbc.co.uk
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I'm getting a booster on the 8th, hope this Omnicron doesn't fuck things up. Name reminds me of Unicron from the 1984 Transformers film (voiced by Orson Welles)
elbows
Well-Known Member
I hate this sort of sloppy framing:
When a case is first detected is not the same as when that variant was first believed to be here. And at this stage of the pandemic far more people were aware of that due to previous experiences with bullshit rhetoric about 'containing' recently detected variants. Rhetoric that even the UK authorities havent bothered with this time, instead going for something closer to reality by talking about slowing the spread instead.
Anyway that quote is from the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/59473695 and is sponsored by the Netherlands:
When a case is first detected is not the same as when that variant was first believed to be here. And at this stage of the pandemic far more people were aware of that due to previous experiences with bullshit rhetoric about 'containing' recently detected variants. Rhetoric that even the UK authorities havent bothered with this time, instead going for something closer to reality by talking about slowing the spread instead.
Anyway that quote is from the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/59473695 and is sponsored by the Netherlands:
elbows
Well-Known Member
UK authorities are using expansion and acceleration of the booster campaign as the main thrust of their initial Omicron response because:
Its viewed a bit like a tug of war - Omicron assumed to reduce vaccine efficacy but boosters can at least bump up the starting level of protection that is then eroded by the variants properties. We'll have to wait for much better data to see what the balance of these two competing factors will actually end up like.
They much prefer vaccine-based stuff to other measures, but dont be surprised if they are forced to do more of the other stuff in future too.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Even Harries has cast doubt on the comments about it being 'mild' from the South African doctor that peope unwisely tried to make too much of the other day.
5h ago 10:08
5h ago 10:08
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Scottish Omicron cases all linked to one ‘private event’, says Sturgeon
First minister says none of the nine people found to have been infected with new variant required hospital care
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
Perhaps it’s not as bad as first thought?
www.cityam.com
Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping - CityAM
The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa. The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead...
8ball
Decolonise colons!
Perhaps it’s not as bad as first thought?
Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping - CityAM
The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa. The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead...
Would love this to be true. A mutation set for increased infectivity and milder disease out-competing the other variants would be a godsend.
8ball
Decolonise colons!
Would depend on the rate of cases.
