Omicron news

[StoneRoad]

This genie is really out of the bottle already, isn’t it?

unfortunately, I would say that it is.

the question is, how well will the UK re-act ?

my pov is that, as usual, it will be too little, too late.
although the speed of imposing the travel ban, pcr tests & isolation [not quarantine] was better than previously.

 

[Aladdin]

SA dr on this morning.
Saying its a mild cold.

But they said that about c19 at first and then people started dying.

 

[2hats]

13 out of the 61 positive cases on that flight to the Netherlands that was in the news yesterday have the Omicron variant

This genie is really out of the bottle already, isn’t it?

One has to be a little cautious because that tells you little of the dynamics that led up to that brief snapshot (it's not likely a representative sample of the SA population, could be skewed by super spreader events, could be skewed if omicron proves to have an accelerated infection cycle => in-flight infection). How many of the other positives will eventually turn out to be omicron and how many are delta-lineage, or other, could prove interesting.

 

[weltweit]

SA dr on this morning.
Saying its a mild cold.

But they said that about c19 at first and then people started dying.

Yes, I am seeing some news reports that it is very contagious (in that it infects easily) but that it isn't very deadly. And that if it overtakes the delta variant this could be a good thing. I don't know how much data they are based on however.

 

[8ball]

Visiting Nottingham and found out about one of the two UK cases being here from the compere in a packed comedy night.

Oh, that’s nice.
Will maybe work from home tomorrow…

Was it glee club?

 

[platinumsage]

SA dr on this morning.
Saying its a mild cold.

But they said that about c19 at first and then people started dying.

TBF it wasn't Chinese doctors who were saying that. This SA doctor (Dr Angelique Coetzee) is well-placed to be informed about such matters, as she regularly sees COVID patients and is chair of the South African Medical Association and a member of the national advisory committee on vaccines, and discusses the subject every day with colleagues who are also on the ground seeing COVID patients. She's reporting lots of mild cases with no loss of smell but with where fatigue and increased heart rate are more common symptoms.

 

[elbows]

And what age are her patients?

 

[platinumsage]

And what age are her patients?

I'd imagine reflective of the community as she's not a pediatrician or geriatrician. She's obviously comparing current symptoms in her patient population to the previous symptom profile in that same population.

 

[elbows]

Well I dont place much weight on those sorts of early remarks anyway. Same approach as with the early stories about the hospitalisations and deaths from Delta variant in India, there are many potential factors that I cannot separate to get a clear picture of the disease severity profile of new variants. It takes time.

Meanwhile the president of South Africa will address the nation in a few hours time, not sure if there will be anything especially noteworthy from that but I suppose we'll hear about it if there is.

 

[Aladdin]

TBF it wasn't Chinese doctors who were saying that.

Yes I know that. I wasn't referring to the Chinese.
There were plenty in Europe and the UK telling us it was not a serious disease at first

 

[Pickman's model]

Well I dont place much weight on those sorts of early remarks anyway. Same approach as with the early stories about the hospitalisations and deaths from Delta variant in India, there are many potential factors that I cannot separate to get a clear picture of the disease severity profile of new variants. It takes time.

Meanwhile the president of South Africa will address the nation in a few hours time, not sure if there will be anything especially noteworthy from that but I suppose we'll hear about it if there is.

You have more confidence in the media to relay such things than I'd expect

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh, that’s nice.
Will maybe work from home tomorrow…

Was it glee club?

The first rule of glee club is...

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, I am seeing some news reports that it is very contagious (in that it infects easily) but that it isn't very deadly. And that if it overtakes the delta variant this could be a good thing. I don't know how much data they are based on however.

As I understand it scientists are concerned that it might gain some of delta's potency while retaining or developing its transmissibility and ability to get past vaccines

 

[elbows]

You have more confidence in the media to relay such things than I'd expect

Well they are more likely the pay attention due to the current position of Omicron on the news agenda. Plus I can always resort to media from South Africa, or the youtube channel of the office of the presidency.

 

[Storm Fox]

Third case of Omicron Covid variant detected in UK

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, says country ‘nowhere near’ imposing social distancing rules despite concerns

www.theguardian.com

So they are going to ignore this almost totally, instead of being more careful now, such as having more distancing, until the scientists can work out Omicron's potency. Then if it is potent then we'll end up with another lockdown and being in a lot worse situation.

It's just depressing.

 

[Pickman's model]

Third case of Omicron Covid variant detected in UK

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, says country ‘nowhere near’ imposing social distancing rules despite concerns

www.theguardian.com

So they are going to ignore this almost totally, instead of being more careful now, such as having more distancing, until the scientists can work out Omicron's potency. Then if it is potent then we'll end up with another lockdown and being in a lot worse situation.

It's just depressing.

It's sadly typical

 

[Storm Fox]

It's sadly typical

Yeah every fucking time.
1) Bring in restrictions too late
2) Undermine the restrictions
3) End restrictions too soon
4) Go to 1

I really hope Omicron is very mild. I don't give a shit about any crowing of I told you so from the twat brigade.

 

[2hats]

Its being mooted an HIV patient could be the starting point of this coronavirus as was the case here Woman with HIV had Covid-19 for 216 days, virus mutated 32 times inside her

The interesting phylogenetics of omicron open up a small number of (not necessarily exclusive) possibilities.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah every fucking time.
1) Bring in restrictions too late
2) Undermine the restrictions
3) End restrictions too soon
4) Go to 1

I really hope Omicron is very mild. I don't give a shit about any crowing of I told you so from the twat brigade.

After so many I told you so moments there's scant attraction in another one

 

[elbows]

Third detected case in the UK visited the Westminster area.

And some details about the Essex case offers clues about how long ago it was, timing I had expressed a keen interest in:

Covid: Third case of Omicron variant detected in the UK

It comes as England prepares to adopt tighter rules on masks and international travel from Tuesday.

www.bbc.co.uk

Essex County Council is now asking people who were at a church and a KFC outlet in the town to get a PCR test. The appeal is for members of the congregation who were at Trinity Church in the Pilgrims Hatch area on 21 November and staff, customers and delivery workers who were at KFC in Brentwood High Street on 19 November between 13:00 and 17:00.

 

[Raheem]

Third detected case in the UK visited the Westminster area.

Exactly what I would do.

 

[elbows]

I watched the speech by the president of South Africa. He went on about vaccines a lot and said they would have a consultation about whether to make them mandatory. Went on about masks and ventilation and avoiding very large gatherings and raves, but they decided not to impose new measures at this time and to review things again in a week. Also complained about the travel bans others have imposed, and made points about vaccine inequality.

 

[weltweit]

I watched the speech by the president of South Africa. He went on about vaccines a lot and said they would have a consultation about whether to make them mandatory. Went on about masks and ventilation and avoiding very large gatherings and raves, but they decided not to impose new measures at this time and to review things again in a week. Also complained about the travel bans others have imposed, and made points about vaccine inequality.

Considering the steps other governments are taking in response to this specific variant I am surprised he isn't doing more. As to making vaccines compulsory my understanding is SA don't have enough to go round.

 

[elbows]

They've got a hesitancy problem which is why he spent so long going on about vaccines.

They till have some measures in place that they didnt get rid of before these latest developments, eg masks are mandatory and legally required in various settings. There are size limits on certain gatherings. There is.a midnight-4am curfew. But they are into the 'live with covid' and 'vaccines are the best tool' approach so some rhetoric in common with UK etc.

 

[Yossarian]

And what age are her patients?

The coordinator of clinical and epidemiological data for the South African Covid Variant Research Consortium has sounded a note of caution about the "mild symptoms" headlines - he reckons we should know more about the possibility of severe illness caused by omicron in a week or two.

Most of South Africa’s cases were initially found in the Gauteng province, mostly among younger people at universities and higher education institutions, said Dr. Lessells, who is also an infectious disease physician at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.

“We would of course expect the vast majority of those to be mild cases anyway, regardless of vaccination status,” he said.

In addition, cases overall have also been rising only in the last two weeks, Dr. Lessells noted: “There’s even barely enough time for infections to have had time to progress to severe disease and hospitalization.”

Should Omicron cause severe illness, that will become apparent if there is a significant rise in hospitalizations over the next week or two, he added.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/28/world/covid-omicron-variant-news#omicron-variant-severe-symptoms-mild

 

[weltweit]

Dutch find 13 Omicron cases among S.Africa travellers

Dutch health authorities said on Sunday that 13 cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant have been found in the Netherlands among passengers that were on two flights from South Africa that arrived on Friday.

www.reuters.com

ROTTERDAM, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Dutch health authorities said on Sunday that 13 cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant have been found in the Netherlands among passengers that were on two flights from South Africa that arrived on Friday.

They were among 61 passengers who tested positive for COVID-19 on the two flights, which carried about 600 people. Those who tested positive are being kept in isolation at a hotel near the airport.

 

[kenny g]

Oh, that’s nice.
Will maybe work from home tomorrow…

Was it glee club?

Saturday tonic club

 

[kenny g]

New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

I hope everyone in the States had a fantastic Thanksgiving (even if you’re a Dallas Cowboys football fan).

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Is a good summary.

 

[weltweit]

‘Absolute chaos’ in South Africa as flights grounded over Omicron

New Omicron variant of the coronavirus leaves South Africans isolated as countries ban travellers from the region.

www.aljazeera.com

Johannesburg, South Africa – Disbelief and confusion washed over South Africa as the announcement of the discovery of the Omicron COVID-19 variant grounded flights and raised fears of a hard lockdown in Africa’s most developed economy.

 

[2hats]

And what age are her patients?

Predominately younger (<40) so more likely to be mild. Speculation: university super spreader events could have made a significant contribution; apparently a significant number of the cases identified thus far have come from university studies.


It will take around two weeks to begin to get a handle on transmissibility and around four weeks to get an idea of severity of disease - in her original interview Coetzee did caution that in "two weeks from now on we might say something different". Latest WHO report unsurprisingly sheds little more light.