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Omicron news

Deffo a good idea to have a thread dedicated to this one variant, IMHO.

I’m worried now about my 80+ parents, who after weathering the early part of the pandemic by shielding and allowing others to do shopping for them have, post vaccination, returned to going to the supermarket once a week, plus other shops.

The sooner we have confirmed info on how much Omicron defeats the current vaccine, the better, as even if I start lobbying them to isolate I know they‘re going to resist. Nothing was helped by the Daily Mail (their favourite source of propagandist disinformation) having the headline “Experts say jabs WILL work on variant” on the front page yesterday. Simultaneously technically correct and massively misleading, in the truest DM tradition.
 
The sooner we have confirmed info on how much Omicron defeats the current vaccine, the better

Not really. It’ll start with antibody studies done in a petri dish showing how well it evades the vaccine, and some people will panic, this will be followed months later by real-world studies showing how very well-protected boosted people are against serious disease and death. That’s my prediction anyway, basically don’t jump on the first “confirmed info”.
 
South Africa is boo hooing about how theyre being treated unfairly.. it's clearly really shitty for them this new variant but their vaccination roll out is a shambles... they have way too much stock and not enough people getting jabbed. its almost December and they're still way behind with vaccine roll out despite being the most "developed" country in Africa.

It's really shit because these southern african countries are likely to be more badly affected than Western Europe. I completely support the travel bans though and PCR testing all international arrivals, contact tracing, imposing quarantine if necessary etc.
Actually the new variant was discovered in Botswana, who are struggling to get vaccines.
This mutation is a direct result of the. West's hoarding of vaccinations not the developing world's failure to deliver them.
With detections all over the world, the African countries are asking why not a shut down of all travel rather than just southern Africa.
 
Actually the new variant was discovered in Botswana, who are struggling to get vaccines.
This mutation is a direct result of the. West's hoarding of vaccinations not the developing world's failure to deliver them.
With detections all over the world, the African countries are asking why not a shut down of all travel rather than just southern Africa.

It likely has nothing to do with vaccination rates, especially as vaccine-resistant strains are unlikely to evolve in the absence of vaccinated individuals. Since we don't know which country patient zero was in, or whether or not they were vaccinated and/or immunocompromised, it's a bit pointless using this specific variant as a developing-world vaccination failure hammer.
 
It likely has nothing to do with vaccination rates, especially as vaccine-resistant strains are unlikely to evolve in the absence of vaccinated individuals. Since we don't know which country patient zero was in, or whether or not they were vaccinated and/or immunocompromised, it's a bit pointless using this specific variant as a developing-world vaccination failure hammer.
I was responding to a post that cited failure of African countries to vaccinate timely as the issue.
If we're going down that road, then vaccine inequality is very much relevant.
And we also know failure to fairly vaccinate the developing world is another reason we will see mutations.
 
Interesting interview on Marr with the SA doctor who first detected the new variant.

The patients all had unusually mild symptoms. Not the classic symptoms we all know about.
What were their symptoms?
 
That is, Apart from ramming everybody together, before the tests ?

Pretty sure the two cases already found are just the tip of the iceberg ...
[not that I'm really cynical, just basing it on prior [non-]activity of our dear leader]
 
That is, Apart from ramming everybody together, before the tests ?

Pretty sure the two cases already found are just the tip of the iceberg ...
[not that I'm really cynical, just basing it on prior [non-]activity of our dear leader]
I think that cynism is no longer happening. We are not even seeing the worst failings and incompetence of this beshitted government and disgraced Prime Minister de Pfeffel Johnson.
 
Its being mooted an HIV patient could be the starting point of this coronavirus as was the case here Woman with HIV had Covid-19 for 216 days, virus mutated 32 times inside her

This isn't the first time an immunosuppressed patient may have been a vector for virus mutation and merging. It was widely published around the time the Kent varient may have come from a long term intubated patient



A 36-year-old woman with advanced HIV carried the novel coronavirus for 216 days, during which the virus accumulated more than 30 mutations, a new study has found.
The case report, which has not been peer-reviewed, was published as a preprint on medRxiv on Thursday. The woman, who has not been named, was identified as a 36-year-old living in South Africa.
The coronaviruses gathered 13 mutations to the spike protein, which is known to help the virus escape the immune response, and 19 other mutations that could change the behaviour of the virus.
 
Interesting interview on Marr with the SA doctor who first detected the new variant.

The patients all had unusually mild symptoms. Not the classic symptoms we all know about.
This one I presume:


If we are very lucky then the most spreadable, immune-evading variant will also turn out to be milder for most people. Some rather oversimplified traditional views on how pandemics play out include such a prospect. I dont rule that out, especially as mild symptoms can be one reason why a version of the virus is able to spread better, eg people dont realise theyve got it and carry on with their lives. However I place very little weight in her comments at this stage for reasons including:

There have always been plenty of mild cases with every version of the virus. Indeed there have always been a fair proportion of cases that show no symptoms at all.

We were less likely to formally identify such cases earlier in the pandemic, due to more limited testing regimes.

The age groups where initial spread was most prevalent can have an impact on the average severity of cases initially seen.

I need proper hospital data, and I havent gone looking for any for that region of South Africa yet.

Vaccinations potential role in moderating symptom severity, even where some forms of immune escape are involved.
 
Its being mooted an HIV patient could be the starting point of this coronavirus as was the case here Woman with HIV had Covid-19 for 216 days, virus mutated 32 times inside her

This isn't the first time an immunosuppressed patient may have been a vector for virus mutation and merging. It was widely published around the time the Kent varient may have come from a long term intubated patient
Its a plausible hypothesis but I think a lack of certainty puts a lot of people off from dwelling on it so much, which is probably a mistake.Not that I have a lot of ideas about how to reduce this risk, aside from the obvious of trying to keep the number of people who catch the virus in the first place down to a minimum. I could start ranting about all the stories with obvious agendas that were desperate to sneer at and shit all over countries that were still pursuing a 'zero covid' approach this year.
 
Israel is to ban foreigners from entering the country for 14 days and use surveillance to halt the spread of the new Covid variant, local media report.

The ban is expected to come into effect at midnight on Sunday, following full cabinet approval.

In addition to the entry ban for non-Israelis, a three-day mandatory quarantine would be required for all vaccinated Israeli nationals, and a seven-day quarantine for those who have not been vaccinated.

The cabinet also authorised surveillance of confirmed coronavirus patients by the Israel's Shin Bet security agency.

In a statement, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said phone-tracking technology would be used.

 
Ferguson still comes out with some useful info from time to time, including today, but I cannot say I'm impressed with his overall stance these days.

The expert whose modelling helped instigate the first lockdown welcomed the new measures to slow the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus but said all options should be kept on the table in case it spreads very rapidly.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he expects to see “substantially larger numbers” of the Omicron variant in the coming days in the UK.

He told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend programme: “We together with the Netherlands ... we’re the two European countries with the largest number of passenger flights to and from South Africa, so it’s likely we’ll detect quite a lot more cases in the coming days.”

He said he backs the new measures announced by the Government as “proportionate” to slow the spread of the new variant during the “waiting game” over the next two weeks as scientists analyse its properties.

26m ago 13:37
 
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