Omicron news

[cupid_stunt]

Perhaps let this one rip then.

You mean like with delta?

 

[8ball]

Perhaps let this one rip then.

 

[Yossarian]

Perhaps it’s not as bad as first thought?

Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping - CityAM

The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa. The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead...

www.cityam.com

It'll be good news indeed if the optimistic take on the situation from CityAM's digital editor is correct - but I'm not going to put too much faith in someone who describes the reaction to omicron as "mass hysteria."

 

[IC3D]

You mean like with delta?

I have more faith in the virus to act like a virus at this point than anything else

 

[rubbershoes]

I have more faith in the virus to act like a virus at this point than anything else

Which is to occasionally mutate.
That's what they do

 

[8ball]

It'll be good news indeed if the optimistic take on the situation from CityAM's digital editor is correct - but I'm not going to put too much faith in someone who describes the reaction to omicron as "mass hysteria."

Until we have some decent data, best not to loosen any behaviour at all.

 

[Yossarian]

This epidemiologist seems a lot more cautious - he also notes that a lot of the reporting about this variant being "mild" stems from a single out-of-context quote from a South African doctor.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I have more faith in the virus to act like a virus at this point than anything else

WTF does this mean?

 

[cupid_stunt]

This epidemiologist seems a lot more cautious - he also notes that a lot of the reporting about this variant being "mild" stems from a single out-of-context quote from a South African doctor.


View attachment 298806

Yep, it's not making much sense, how can there be a 330% increase in hospitalisations, in just 2 weeks, if it's so mild?

Hospitalisations have risen by 330% in the past two weeks in the South African province where the Omicron Covid variant was first detected.

Gauteng has had 580 hospitalisations caused by Covid which is a 330% rise from the 120 people that needed hospital treatment two weeks earlier.

At the same time the province, that includes Johannesburg, has one of the worst vaccine rollouts in South Africa with just under 40 percent of the 12 million residents having had at least one jab.

Scientists are currently investigating amid fears that the Omicron variant could be the most infectious and could evade vaccination protection due to the extent that it has mutated.

The news of the dramatic increase in hospitalisations comes as South African health officials have stated that cases of the Omicron variant have been mild.

Basically, it's far too early to actually know how much of a problem it's going to be.

Hospitalisations soar by 330% in South African area where Omicron first detected

The South African province of Gauteng where Omicron was first discovered has seen a 330% rise in hospitalisations over the past two weeks despite officials claiming the Covid variant has been mild

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[weltweit]

..
Basically, it's far too early to actually know how much of a problem it's going to be.
..

I agree with this, we need sober scientific analysis and I don't think we have had that yet.

 

[Supine]

 

[8ball]

... for seemingly handwavy values of '~'...

 

[cupid_stunt]

I agree with this, we need sober scientific analysis and I don't think we have had that yet.

Indeed, all the experts are saying it will be another couple of weeks before they know enough to make a call on this.

Yet, IC3D suggests we should perhaps let it rip, without that data, and after posting just over a week ago "we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too."

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I’m grateful for optimism given the bleakness of the last two years. But the data hasn’t had enough time to be of any use really, and comes from South Africa which has a younger population than Western Europe.

 

[8ball]

Indeed, all the experts are saying it will be another couple of weeks before they know enough to make a call on this.

Yet, IC3D suggests we should perhaps let it rip, without that data, and after posting just over a week ago "we all hope it will become a common cold like the other coronaviruses but I believe it could get worse too."

I thought IC3D was being sarcastic and was suggesting someone else on the thread (possibly me), was saying we should "let it rip".

 

[LDC]

Perhaps let this one rip then.

Don't you work in medicine/the NHS? (Unless it's a very weird joke we've missed?)

 

[elbows]

Perhaps it’s not as bad as first thought?

Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping - CityAM

The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa. The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead...

www.cityam.com

Thats based on the same stuff from a doctor that we've been discussing in recent days and that I put no weight in at all at this stage. Even if her comments are accurate they are more likely to be a sign of the age of the patients she saw, and even Harries has been pointing out the different demographics of South Africa compared to the UK. And others have highlighted some hospital admissions data, and not just on this thread, eg #423 and #427

 

[elbows]

Plus even if a new variant were considered to be 'milder' by some direct measurements, it can still end up killing more people than previous strains if it (a) is more transmissible and (b) has some additional degree of escape from vaccines, especially if it explodes onto the scene at a time when people are in contact with more people than before and are doing less of the other things to reduce transmission than before. Thats why authorities like the UKs are unnerved by this variant.

 

[platinumsage]

The main thing to take from her comments isn’t the supposed mildness, but the different symptom profile. Loss of smell for example first came to light through anecdata, so it does pay to listen to clinicians on the ground (albeit keeping the bigger picture in mind when they’re talking about wards full of children or lots of mild cases or whatever).

 

[LDC]

Plus even if a new variant were considered to be 'milder' by some direct measurements, it can still end up killing more people than previous strains if it (a) is more transmissible and (b) has some additional degree of escape from vaccines, especially if it explodes onto the scene at a time when people are in contact with more people than before and are doing less of the other things to reduce transmission than before. Thats why authorities like the UKs are unnerved by this variant.

Yeah, I've had the conversation with a couple of people, it is something that doesn't seem easy to grasp for some at first, 'common sense' makes people think milder=better irrespective of other factors.

 

[2hats]

Two Israeli doctors test positive for Omicron COVID variant

One of the doctors, in his 50s, brought the variant into Israel on return from a medical conference in London. He tested negative when he boarded the airplane from the United Kingdom to Israel and on arrival, but a few days later began experiencing symptoms.

Once he tested positive, his results were sequenced and he was confirmed positive for the variant on Tuesday.

Before entering isolation, the doctor had performed several catheterizations and attended at least two other large events. He was also in contact with the second cardiologist, in his 70s, who is now infected with the variant.

Both doctors were fully vaccinated with three shots of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Two Israeli doctors test positive for Omicron COVID variant

In the Air Tonight - union carbide productions
Not so helpful but summarising how I feel about the whole show in a way

 

[Combustible]

Plus even if a new variant were considered to be 'milder' by some direct measurements, it can still end up killing more people than previous strains if it (a) is more transmissible

It's also worth pointing out that based on 'educated speculation', Omicron may well be intrinsically less transmissible than Delta, but that could be outweighed by it's ability to evade existing antibodies from previous infections/vaccines.

 

[Cloo]

It seems like now really we're waiting to see what hospitalisations/ deaths do in the next 4 weeks. Fucking shame the government will do nothing because Christmas.

 

[Pickman's model]

It seems like now really we're waiting to see what hospitalisations/ deaths do in the next 4 weeks. Fucking shame the government will do nothing because Christmas.

The government know what they should do. But Boris Johnson blames a shortage of revolvers and whisky shot glasses as he weasels his way out of it

 

[brogdale]

This has a darkly familiar ring to it.

 

[Pickman's model]

This has a darkly familiar ring to it.

View attachment 298891

Another Johnson moment

 

[Cloo]

The government know what they should do. But Boris Johnson blames a shortage of revolvers and whisky shot glasses as he weasels his way out of it

As I've mentioned elsewhere, sadly the Tories know that a 'cancelled Christmas' would cost them more than any excess deaths, because people are tossers.

 

[StoneRoad]

Javid was whittering on about asking people to use their "common sense" over the festive season.

But that's the problem - yer average "mr&mrs & 2.4 chliders" style family ... well, they don't have as much common sense as the term implies.
It should be "rare sense" not "common sense" as it is in such short supply.

I was out on a 'site visit' yesterday. Looking about whilst getting there & back, I could see very few masks. During the personal needs break on the way home, as a mask-wearer I was in a tiny minority. More smokers were in evidence ! ...

 

[elbows]

It seems like now really we're waiting to see what hospitalisations/ deaths do in the next 4 weeks. Fucking shame the government will do nothing because Christmas.

In the UK? First we need to see how Omicron takes hold in terms of cases. The hospitalisations and deaths picture will be driven by what happens with Delta infections unless/until Omicron really takes off.

edit - also see the leaked SAGE minutes which I just mentioned on the main UK thread: #43,430