Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

New Space (Arms) Race Watch

ska invita

back on the other side
By special request and popular demand...a slow burning thread for the new Space Race. There have been a few things posted on disparate threads the last year or so, and I think it makes sense to pull things together...its an issue thats only going to get bigger.

I'll dig out a couple of my older posts, slightly out of context, to kick things off.

=========

Here's the US Department of Defence (not my favourite source but still) latest report on the Chinese space programme, from a few months back, August 2018:
Pentagon report: China’s space program ‘continues to mature rapidly’ - SpaceNews.com
------------------------------------
China’s continued investments and efforts in space technology are a major concern for the Pentagon, the report says. Chinese strategists regard the ability to use space-based systems — and to deny them to adversaries — as “central to modern warfare.”

China is strengthening its military space capabilities despite its public stance against the militarization of space, DoD says. “Space operations are viewed as a key enabler of PLA campaigns aimed at countering third-party intervention.” One of its goals is to develop a “real-time surveillance, reconnaissance, and warning system and is increasing the number and capabilities of its space systems, including various communications and intelligence satellites and the Beidou navigation satellite system.”

The report raises concerns about China’s counterspace weapons, including kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers and orbiting space robots. China also is expanding surveillance capabilities that can monitor objects across the globe and in space and “enable counterspace actions.”

The Chinese military in 2015 set up a “Strategic Support Force” to centralize the management of space, cyber and electronic warfare missions.

China’s space program continues to mature rapidly, the report says. It has built an expansive ground support infrastructure to support a growing on-orbit fleet. China in 2017 successfully launched 16 of 18 space launch vehicles, orbiting some 31 spacecraft, including communications, navigation, surveillance and test/engineering satellites.
......
Since DoD started producing this report in 2001, this is the first one where counterspace capabilities are mentioned in a more alarming tone. “In addition to the development of directed- energy weapons and satellite jammers, China is also developing direct-ascent and co-orbital kinetic kill capabilities and has probably made progress on the anti-satellite missile system it tested in July 2014.” The Pentagon believes China is “probably testing dual-use technologies in space that could be applied to counterspace missions.”

China has not publicly acknowledged the existence of any new programs since it confirmed it used an anti-satellite missile to destroy a weather satellite in 2007, but Chinese academics have offered some insight, the report says. “These scholars stress the necessity of destroying, damaging, and interfering with the enemy’s reconnaissance . . . and communications satellites, suggesting that such systems, as well as navigation and early warning satellites, could be among the targets of attacks designed to blind and deafen the enemy.”
----------------------------------------------



From what I can see this current dark side of the moon landing mission is above all about technological prowess and extension of power. Its portrayed as a (dual-use) fig leaf to China's military intentions.

China shooting down that weather satellite with a missile from the earth and creating all that dangerous space debris should be a clear sign what the Party's prioirites are.

We're entering a new militarised space race, with black hole sized arseholes on both/several sides. Its worrying and depressing.
 
Last edited:
Some good links for background



This thread
www.urban75.net/forums/threads/china-versus-india-the-new-cold-war.354048
+
Theres also a space race dimension to this, with the standard national myth building and military concerns at the fore
https://inews.co.uk/news/science/space-race-india-japan-china/

Plus of course
US to set up new military 'space force'

and throw in these fuckers for good measure
Billionaire space race - Wikipedia
 
Last edited:
------------------------------------
China’s continued investments and efforts in space technology are a major concern for the Pentagon, the report says.
"Pentagon think tanks says Pentagon needs more cash to deal with non existent threat"
From what I can see this current dark side of the moon landing mission is above all about technological prowess and extension of power.
Pish.
Israel and Germany have little landers hitting the Moon later this year. Is that "West Bank II" and some new Lebensraum?
The US is investigating bodies beyond Pluto and has a probe closer to the Sun than any other in history while the ESA has landed on comets and been to Saturn.
What fucking power is this an extension of? The worlds second largest economy and largest population is slightly ahead of a privately funded, non profit Israeli fun mission?

Get a fucking grip.

Proton, Russias second most important launcher has had something like 1 paying customer in 3 years. Soyuz is on its arse relying on Russian military and NASA funded ISS missions.
Long March 3 cannot get below $70 million while SpaceX is hawking its Falcon 9 at $50 million and that is with them still doing big strip downs of their rockets (70 days) before relaunch. Not the guy you all see on TV and twitter, but the people whos names you do not know but I trust are talking about the new Block 5s taking this down to much shorter turn arounds (Gwynne Shotwell, Tom Mueller).

The biggest and most iconic brands in rocket history still flying are being retired (Delta is going soon, Proton gone, Atlas has an end date) and China finally moved from hypergolic first stages to RP-1 (kerosene) when everyone else is shifting from RP-1 to methane oxygen? They have spent how much money to catch up with Ariane 5, Atlas V and the like just as those programs are being run down.

When China and Russia can produce an engine with the same throttle depth and speed as the Merlin C and couple that with the ground crew turn around that are becoming the norm then I will start thinking that those states have gotten back into a race with the US. (And given the quality problems on Proton and perhaps emerging with Soyuz I think Russia might be a scrub).

America has never had the lead in space it has today. China is dicking around with a robot on the Moon and there is an actual human to Mars prototype rocket being built right now in Texas.

This leads to very serious worries about America's militarization of space. That whole SDI debacle from the 80s, well that might actually become viable. New global high speed broadband networks based on satellites are being launched this year. And DARPA is paying them to see if they can be used by the US military (think the bandwidth on a drone).

Ten years from now come back and see if there is a space race again.
For now, its full spectrum dominance from Uncle Sam.
 
I wouldn't discount China so easily. Their program is well funded and moving forwards. The private sector is buzzing too. Yes, this sort of thing was happening 10 years ago in America, but there is now a well-trod path from here to Falcon 9 levels of capability:

 
"Pentagon think tanks says Pentagon needs more cash to deal with non existent threat"
Pish.
Israel and Germany have little landers hitting the Moon later this year. Is that "West Bank II" and some new Lebensraum?
The US is investigating bodies beyond Pluto and has a probe closer to the Sun than any other in history while the ESA has landed on comets and been to Saturn.
What fucking power is this an extension of? The worlds second largest economy and largest population is slightly ahead of a privately funded, non profit Israeli fun mission?

Get a fucking grip.

Proton, Russias second most important launcher has had something like 1 paying customer in 3 years. Soyuz is on its arse relying on Russian military and NASA funded ISS missions.
Long March 3 cannot get below $70 million while SpaceX is hawking its Falcon 9 at $50 million and that is with them still doing big strip downs of their rockets (70 days) before relaunch. Not the guy you all see on TV and twitter, but the people whos names you do not know but I trust are talking about the new Block 5s taking this down to much shorter turn arounds (Gwynne Shotwell, Tom Mueller).

The biggest and most iconic brands in rocket history still flying are being retired (Delta is going soon, Proton gone, Atlas has an end date) and China finally moved from hypergolic first stages to RP-1 (kerosene) when everyone else is shifting from RP-1 to methane oxygen? They have spent how much money to catch up with Ariane 5, Atlas V and the like just as those programs are being run down.

When China and Russia can produce an engine with the same throttle depth and speed as the Merlin C and couple that with the ground crew turn around that are becoming the norm then I will start thinking that those states have gotten back into a race with the US. (And given the quality problems on Proton and perhaps emerging with Soyuz I think Russia might be a scrub).

America has never had the lead in space it has today. China is dicking around with a robot on the Moon and there is an actual human to Mars prototype rocket being built right now in Texas.

This leads to very serious worries about America's militarization of space. That whole SDI debacle from the 80s, well that might actually become viable. New global high speed broadband networks based on satellites are being launched this year. And DARPA is paying them to see if they can be used by the US military (think the bandwidth on a drone).

Ten years from now come back and see if there is a space race again.
For now, its full spectrum dominance from Uncle Sam.

Of course the US is dominant, and as we move into a more multi polar world that dominance will be challenged on all fronts.
Crude anti-imperialists like to cheer on the likes of Russia and China in that process. Im not joining in that.

It's not just pentagon who think China's programme is military in nature (dual purpose)... It's widely reported as such. And it's something that will escalate over the next decade. I'll come back then and also in the meantime, as I said in the OP this a slow burning thread to pool info over that next decade.

We should be sceptical of every state actor in space. I don't know about the German and Israeli programmes, but particularly knowing how the Israeli state acts on other matters there is every reason to be highly sceptical of their intentions.
 
There's inherent dual use and there's shooting down satellites with missiles. There are state actors and there are dictatorships creating the worlds most intrusive surveillance state (when they're not rounding up a million innocent people in concentration camps). I don't think watering down reality with equivalence is useful.
 
If you really think that the US hasn't been doing its own research into how to take down enemy satellites, then you're a lot more naive than I thought you were. The Chinese are playing catch-up in this regard.
Why would you think I dont think the US has been doing that? What gave you that impression? Of course they have. And the Chinese are playing catch-up. Agreed. Thats what the thread is about and what I set out in the OP. The Chinese are playing catch up, and the US are responding in kind with a space force and there's a new space race happening.
 
Why would you think I dont think the US has been doing that? What gave you that impression? Of course they have. And the Chinese are playing catch-up. Agreed. Thats what the thread is about and what I set out in the OP. The Chinese are playing catch up, and the US are responding in kind with a space force and there's a new space race happening.

Because you made a distinction between "inherent dual use" and "shooting down satellites with missiles", as if the latter was something the US has never done. The US Space Force doesn't actually exist, and I haven't seen any evidence that it will be anything more than yet another example of Trump's narcissistic grand-standing. There's nothing in space that's worth committing the kind of resources that would justify a sixth branch of the US military. No factories, no mines, no habitats or anything like that. The United States Air Force is the branch with all the actual operational experience and equipment for dealing with military situations that might actually occur, such as attacks on satellites and incoming ICBMs, and I doubt that they will be too pleased at prospect of having funding diverted from their coffers towards some ephemeral President's brain-fart.


USSPACECOM is being revived, not created, well done CNN for not doing basic research.
 
Because you made a distinction between "inherent dual use" and "shooting down satellites with missiles", as if the latter was something the US has never done.
Ah well sorry for the confusion. I wasnt referring to the US specifically, I was responding to your generalised "All space activities are inherently dual-use." ,not US military ones.

The US Space Force doesn't actually exist, and I haven't seen any evidence that it will be anything more than yet another example of Trump's narcissistic grand-standing.
We'll see. Looks like the wheels are turning to me. Though as you rightly point out, they're already well ahead in the race and armed to the teeth.
 
India joins he club of being able to shoot shit in space down
'A terrible thing': India's destruction of satellite threatens ISS, says Nasa



also israels space mission is proving invaluable to science by taking this amazing picture
http://time.com
3-ahandoutpict.jpg
 
china managed to produce 10% of the worlds space junk with one anti-sat test:eek:
if you can launch a satellite you can shoot another one down its not technically difficult you can't hide a satellites orbit and they don't have much capability to dodge
 
Suprised you didn't pick up on the Repub plan to put men on the moon again- that ones (to my eyes) pretty nakedly a 'big idea' pitch to run against any sort of GND.
 
china managed to produce 10% of the worlds space junk with one anti-sat test:eek:
if you can launch a satellite you can shoot another one down its not technically difficult you can't hide a satellites orbit and they don't have much capability to dodge
Crucially India have proved they're prepared to push the button

#wheresjeremycorbyn
 
As said above there is no new "space arms race". The US dominance is currently unassailable. It will take one or two generations of new launch systems from the other "competitors" to catch up.
Case in point China and India can destroy satellites, if they have weeks to prepare launch systems and wait for the satellite to pass close enough. In the 80s the US F-15 fighter could take out satellites so it could fly to where the satellite was headed for rather than waiting.
When China was back slapping itself over its amazing abilities the US sailed a Tico boat, the USS Lake Erie and pinged one of its wayward recon birds (20 February 2008).
Between the Ticos and the Arleigh Burkes the US has close to 100 ships with the same radar\missile set up. They have also been proven in tests to be able to ping ballistic missiles. They use these ships as part of the missile defense for Japan against the North Koreans.
The US spends a god awful amount on weapon systems that would be far better spent on health or education. But this thread is not about the issues of the US education system.
Its the claim there is some kind of space arms race on. And this bit of relevant news emerged yesterday.
Space Development Agency releases its first solicitation - SpaceNews.com

SpaceX plan to launch about 12000 satellites at about $10 billion to function as a backhaul for internet and a remote location ISP (internet service provider). Amazon just issued an FCC filing to the same effect today.
The brass hats are bloody keen to start working out what this means for them.
T
he SDA’s objective is to “rapidly develop and deploy a threat-driven, next-generation space architecture to counter near-peer efforts to contest or deny our space-based systems,” said the RFI. The agency is looking for ideas and concepts applicable to a wide range of space systems — satellite buses, payloads and launch concepts “that can contribute to an agile, responsive next-generation space architecture.”
"Here is some money, show me what you can do with it".

  1. [*]Space transport layer: A low-latency data and communications proliferated “mesh” network to provide 24/7 global communications.
    [*]Tracking layer: To provide early warnings of advanced missile threats.
    [*]Custody layer: To keep watch over time-critical targets.
    [*]Deterrence layer: To provide space situational awareness of, and access, to the cislunar space.
    [*]Navigation layer: To create an alternative positioning, navigation and timing system for GPS-denied environments.
    [*]Battle management layer: An artificial intelligence system to help deliver space sensor-derived data directly to tactical users.
    [*]Support layer: Mass-producible ground command and control systems, user terminals and and rapid-response launch services.
Its basically an invitation to "blue sky" what the modern high cadence\low cost per kg paradigm might be able to do for uncle sam.
Brilliant Pebbles - Wikipedia
It means that in part, Strategic Defense Initiative might become feasible. Not the capacity to defeat an entire inbound Russian attack but the ability to take out a smaller attack from a state like Iran or North Korea.
A well known company have had a position for this blue sky thinking thingamy for a bit
SpaceX job posts hint at building satellite constellations for US military
They will be looking cube sat or bigger systems to provide near continuous coverage of parts of the Earth from various spectrums, IR, radar (microwave), visible etc.

I have seen these "new eras" in space launch fall on their arses before (Shuttle, Ariane 5, EELV) but something tells me this time is different. What that something is is for niche threads in the science forum. What this is about is the consequences of what a low cost to LEO paradigm may mean for the megabucks US NRO and other agencies.

As always your mileage may vary.
 
As long as somebody doesnt do something stupid with a dumb rocket and a bit of maths hit a big sat you can spread shrapnel in orbit that could lead to a cascade or take out a few sats and make everything worse.
 
Defense Innovation Unit Solution Brief Solicitation: Orbital Outpost
(couple of days old so I thought Id post it here)
A relatively new US defense research organization want the prototype for an autonomous space station to be flying in 24 months. Whether this links to the X37 mystery space plane is anyone's guess. While it cites "human rated" it has a payload volume of 1m^3
Tiangong 1 was a hollowed out version of their Soyuz knock off and weighed about 8 tonnes, Skylab was 77 tonnes, ISS is 420 tonnes. Now the folk with the real money want to start spending some of it on, well what? Fabrication or materials science they cannot do on ISS, microgravity experiments, long exposure experiments for new NRO hardware? :hmm:

X37 B is a prime example of the gulf that exists in space capabilities, its a mystery bird that goes into space for 2 year missions then brings itself back. Perhaps testing new cameras, radars or something for the USAF, NRO etc or perhaps doing something else. The US intelligence agencies have a budget of about $80 billion and we know NRO gets the biggest slice of that, bigger than the CIA or NSA. NASA's total budget for everything is about $20 billion, the entire PLA have a budget estimated at $180 billionish that is for everything from spy satellites to infantry boots. .

The current lead they have over the rest of the world is unreal. This lead will likely accelerate over the coming decade until the likes of Arianespace and the CNSA catch up with the current refurbishable and perhaps soon reusable launch systems.
 
Virgin Orbit Partners with Royal Air Force for Responsive Launch Capability – NASASpaceFlight.com

Virgin Orbit has announced a new partnership with the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force. A new RAF project, named ARTEMIS, has selected Virgin Orbit for launch services beginning as early as late 2020.

The goal of ARTEMIS (not to be confused with the American human spaceflight program of the same name) is to demonstrate responsive launch of small satellites to support the RAF and allied forces. The program was created to make use of commercial innovation in order to operate in space quickly, in response to an “evolving space landscape.” ARTEMIS missions will be procured with very short notice: as little time as a week prior to launch. This differs from standard launch procurement timelines which usually extend over years of planning.

These missions will utilize Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne rocket, and take advantage of their Boeing 747-400 carrier aircraft Cosmic Girl. The air-launched system offers several benefits, such as flexible launch sites, access to any orbital inclination, and weather avoidance. Air launch enables agile launch capabilities not offered by other systems, which are often constrained to ground based launch sites with limited inclination options and frequent weather challenges.
The RAF seems to be awake to the possibilities of the high cadence low cost paradigm emerging.
Another member of the team is Surrey Satellite Technology, which will build a constellation of small satellites to be launched aboard LauncherOne. The constellation will act as an “Operational Capability Demonstrator” to exhibit this new responsive launch capability.
"Satellites on demand" type stuff seems to be the goal.
The UK Ministry of Defense has committed £30 million in order to accelerate the ARTEMIS program.
 
When the de-Trumpification process begins, which will hopefully be in less than 18 months, this "Space Force" nonsense is going to get jettisoned almost as quickly as the White House tanning booth.
 
Trump launches space warfare command

SpaceCom is go, Space Force still to pass congress

September 1985 – October 2002
August 29, 2019 – present
United States Space Command - Wikipedia

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the armed forces' focus on homeland defense and counter-terrorism was significantly increased, which resulted in space being deemphasized. It was in this context that the unified command plan was reevaluated, resulting in U.S. Northern Command being established for the defense of the North American continent, while U.S. Space Command was merged with U.S. Strategic Command, where it became the Joint Functional Component Command for Space and Global Strike. In 2006, this would be replaced by the Joint Functional Component Command for Space, and in 2017, be reorganized as the Joint Force Space Component Commander.[5]
It all sounds very important and scary and not at all a PR stunt that rejigs who answers to whom when signing off the dollars for recon birds.
 
X37 B is a prime example of the gulf that exists in space capabilities, its a mystery bird that goes into space for 2 year missions then brings itself back. Perhaps testing new cameras, radars or something for the USAF, NRO etc or perhaps doing something else.

Another X37 has arrived back after a long mission

 
Back
Top Bottom