Mr BC said:
a very cold winter should cut a scythe through the blue rinse brigade...
One amusing thing about this debate is what it says about the state of the Tory party.
Howard, Leftwin and, it seems, Mr BC, may as well be in different political parties, with 'decent' Tories reduced to waiting for half the party to croak so they can ditch Howard's right-wing social agenda!
And with the rise of UKIP there's simply no need for the Tories to be the 'nasty' party any more on social issues (crime, drugs, sexuality, etc): the BNP-in-Blazers brigade now have Tangerine Man, aka Robert Killroy-Silk, to do their dirty work.
In fact, with the revolting Killroy-Silk running about what's the
point of Howard? What
function does he serve, apart from prolonging Tory Party agony and keeping Blair in Downing Street?
My take on what will happen:
- Howard's in a similar position to Michael Foot in 1982, with UKIP occupying a wrecking role analogous to the SDP.
- Howard will lose next year's general election, spectacularly, just as Footy lost in '83, with UKIP stripping 10-15% off the Tory vote.
- All hell will then break loose in the Tory party, with people like Leftwin and BC making their move.
So the presence of UKIP is vital to drive the Tories to the left.
The big question: do the Tories need a Neil Kinnock-type period before they can get themselves elected again, or can they do it in one jump under a post-Howard leadership?
Blair's defining moment was ditching clause IV. What's the Tory Party equivalent?
A commitment to European, as opposed to US, taxation levels? Getting a conference to vote to stick such a commitment in the Party constitution, along with some guff about 'social fairness'?
So a stake does indeed need to be driven through Howard's heart. I hope Mr BC and his friends are up to the job, not least because it will be fun to watch.
