Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace
- Thread starter treefrog
- Start date
2hats
Dust.
To be blunt: they have long since entered the food chain.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Such is Davy Jones' locker.
2hats
Dust.
It really depends on the time of year and oxygenation levels at the location concerned, but it can be anywhere from just days to a few months. See inside the spoiler for an example.
Worms such as osedax will polish off the bones, hence photos of lone pairs of shoes on the seabed from the Titanic:
e2a: also hagfish at slightly lower depths.
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2hats
Dust.
Two further potential debris items have been located on an island a few km off the north-east coast of Madagascar. Images have been sent to the ATSB for further analysis.
(e2a: that's the same Blaine Gibson who found an item of debris in Mozambique a few months back.)
Additionally, the ATSB are investigating a suspect item that was found on Kangaroo Island, South Australia:
Both these locations for debris are consistent with circulation models (see eg here and here) and the suspected crash (underwater search) region.
(e2a: that's the same Blaine Gibson who found an item of debris in Mozambique a few months back.)
Additionally, the ATSB are investigating a suspect item that was found on Kangaroo Island, South Australia:
Both these locations for debris are consistent with circulation models (see eg here and here) and the suspected crash (underwater search) region.
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2hats
Dust.
For what it is worth - Blaine Gibson (again) has created a photo gallery of selected ('suspected') personal effects he has found on Indian Ocean beaches (as part of his own, self-funded, search) just in case they are recognised by relatives of the MH370 passengers and might better inform drift modelling and thus the original crash location.
2hats
Dust.
The governments involved in the current search will meet on Friday to discuss the future of it. They have previously stated that if no new credible evidence comes to light then the search will not be extended any further.
Engineers working for Fugro (the company charged with performing the search) have recently speculated that perhaps MH370 finished its flight in an unpowered glide which could mean that the remains of the aircraft might be located up to almost 200km away from the current search area (an area covered by the SW portion of the wide search area, the grey shaded arc in the figure below, which surrounds the purple outlined extended underwater search area 2 - the area currently being searched). Boeing/Thales/NTSB/AAIB/Inmarsat/DSTO do not favour the glide view, suspecting an unpowered, unpiloted rapid descent as being more likely (hence purple outlined underwater search area 2).
Source: The Guardian.
Engineers working for Fugro (the company charged with performing the search) have recently speculated that perhaps MH370 finished its flight in an unpowered glide which could mean that the remains of the aircraft might be located up to almost 200km away from the current search area (an area covered by the SW portion of the wide search area, the grey shaded arc in the figure below, which surrounds the purple outlined extended underwater search area 2 - the area currently being searched). Boeing/Thales/NTSB/AAIB/Inmarsat/DSTO do not favour the glide view, suspecting an unpowered, unpiloted rapid descent as being more likely (hence purple outlined underwater search area 2).
Source: The Guardian.
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2hats
Dust.
Some media are getting a little excited over a New York magazine report that they have gained access to (some parts of) an FBI report on the analysis of Capt. Zaharie's flight simulator setup, that the Malaysian authorities have been in possession of since at least late 2014. In the report the FBI detail the recovery of a deleted flightpath (indicated in red below) that the captain had simulated a few weeks before MH370 disappeared:
(known and computed/Inmarsat constrained flight path in yellow, leading to the current search area outlined in orange. Note that the simulated route happens to involve an immediate departure to the NW from KUL and not the known initial routing to PEK with return over the Malaysian peninsula).
However this deleted simulated flightpath was reported a couple of months after the disappearance.
(known and computed/Inmarsat constrained flight path in yellow, leading to the current search area outlined in orange. Note that the simulated route happens to involve an immediate departure to the NW from KUL and not the known initial routing to PEK with return over the Malaysian peninsula).
However this deleted simulated flightpath was reported a couple of months after the disappearance.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Suspended sounds so much better than ended
2hats
Dust.
A new drift simulation has been performed taking into account all the known items of debris which have been discovered over the last year. The upshot is that they have been looking partly in the right place but should also extend the search up to 500km towards the NNE:
The implication of this study for further debris discovery is that most debris that will be washed up on shores has probably already been washed up and searches for such should be concentrated on the coasts of Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar and surrounding islands such as Réunion, Mauritius and the Comoros. This model can readily accommodate any further debris discoveries and refine the search location further.
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016
Report in The Guardian. BBC report.
The implication of this study for further debris discovery is that most debris that will be washed up on shores has probably already been washed up and searches for such should be concentrated on the coasts of Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar and surrounding islands such as Réunion, Mauritius and the Comoros. This model can readily accommodate any further debris discoveries and refine the search location further.
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016
Report in The Guardian. BBC report.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
However, he warned it was too early to draw firm conclusions – or even to know if the debris is from the missing plane. The parts, found by a local fisherman in southeast Madagascar, near Sainte-Luce, could have been burned after the crash once they washed ashore, he said.
Gibson flew to Australia this week to hand over the articles, along with three other pieces of suspected debris, to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) to analyse whether they came from the Boeing 777, which went off radar in March 2014.
Search for MH370 may be extended by Australia if funding can be found
Read more
“We don’t know yet if it is from MH370. I think it is,” he said.
So not scorch marks after all and possibly not even from the plane.
MH370 search: Doubts over 'debris burn marks' - BBC News
MH370 search: Doubts over 'debris burn marks' - BBC News
2hats
Dust.
ATSB operational search update (from 19 Oct 2016):
Recent operations in the current underwater search area have yielded some contacts which exhibit man-made properties and therefore must be investigated further to be positively eliminated.
2hats
Dust.
The ATSB have published a search update report.
The key points are:
1. Extensive beat frequency oscillator analysis (the precise Inmarsat BFO frequency is a function of Doppler shift arising from aircraft motion) has determined that the aircraft was in a steep dive of between 3800ft/min and 14200ft/min at the time of the penultimate signal and then in a descent of between 14600ft/min and 25000ft/min at the time of the final BFO signal (all other sources of frequency disparity having been eliminated to the satisfaction of the researchers). (Note: these later figures are extremely high rates of descent that one would not encounter in any normal commercial air passenger transport flight operations).
2. End of flight simulations have been conducted in a high fidelity simulator provided by Boeing. These indicate that the aircraft may have continued in flight for up to 20 minutes after fuel exhaustion in a series of phugoid motions, climbing and diving (as previously discussed). One scenario saw the aircraft travel in the reverse direction for up to 21 nautical miles (nm). Simulations consistent with the new BFO descent rate findings see impact within 15 nm of the final BFO arc. Some simulated descent rate scenarios were outside the aircraft's certified flight envelope (though the manufacturer advised caution in interpreting the simulation results in such cases). The results suggest a search width of +/- 40nm about the last signal arc should be adequate for locating the impact site.
(Illustrated above the simulated final paths after fuel exhaustion for a wide range of aircraft’s final speed, fuel, electrical configuration and altitude, along with the turbulence level.)
3. New drift studies have been conducted led by CSIRO (themselves extensively detailed in this publication), factoring in new data from research into the drift behaviour of aircraft parts (copies of recovered debris were made, same dimensions, buoyancy, and the movements of these were observed as part of field tests in the open ocean). The studies and analysis are ongoing but suggest that impact was in the northern area of the current search zone or just slightly north of the current impact zone (this result is consistent with the conclusions of other recent, separate research on the matter).
(The plots above illustrate drift scenarios from locations along the final arc using the new model and the locations and timing of debris point to an area towards/just past the northern end of the current search zone.)
4. Outboard flap failure analysis (examination of the likely fate of the flaperon), considering the damage witness marks and thus proximity of key components of the wing structure and flap deployment mechanisms strongly suggest that the flaps were retracted or at least in a neutral position at the time of impact. This might tend to favour a non-controlled, non-piloted impact with the ocean, though a pilot could of course have chosen to select such settings prior to impact.
Interestingly, the report points to a document compiled by the Malaysian authorities that details some 22 items of debris (both confirmed and suspected) from MH370 that have been reported to the inquiry thus far. Some of them have not previously been publicised - one of these would appear to be a section of the vertical stabiliser.
All debris thus far has been found on the costs of Mozambique, Madagascar or the Reunion/Mauritius archipelago.
Possible extension of the search zone northwards in the light of this (and other research) is reported in the Sydney Morning Herald:
The key points are:
1. Extensive beat frequency oscillator analysis (the precise Inmarsat BFO frequency is a function of Doppler shift arising from aircraft motion) has determined that the aircraft was in a steep dive of between 3800ft/min and 14200ft/min at the time of the penultimate signal and then in a descent of between 14600ft/min and 25000ft/min at the time of the final BFO signal (all other sources of frequency disparity having been eliminated to the satisfaction of the researchers). (Note: these later figures are extremely high rates of descent that one would not encounter in any normal commercial air passenger transport flight operations).
2. End of flight simulations have been conducted in a high fidelity simulator provided by Boeing. These indicate that the aircraft may have continued in flight for up to 20 minutes after fuel exhaustion in a series of phugoid motions, climbing and diving (as previously discussed). One scenario saw the aircraft travel in the reverse direction for up to 21 nautical miles (nm). Simulations consistent with the new BFO descent rate findings see impact within 15 nm of the final BFO arc. Some simulated descent rate scenarios were outside the aircraft's certified flight envelope (though the manufacturer advised caution in interpreting the simulation results in such cases). The results suggest a search width of +/- 40nm about the last signal arc should be adequate for locating the impact site.
(Illustrated above the simulated final paths after fuel exhaustion for a wide range of aircraft’s final speed, fuel, electrical configuration and altitude, along with the turbulence level.)
3. New drift studies have been conducted led by CSIRO (themselves extensively detailed in this publication), factoring in new data from research into the drift behaviour of aircraft parts (copies of recovered debris were made, same dimensions, buoyancy, and the movements of these were observed as part of field tests in the open ocean). The studies and analysis are ongoing but suggest that impact was in the northern area of the current search zone or just slightly north of the current impact zone (this result is consistent with the conclusions of other recent, separate research on the matter).
(The plots above illustrate drift scenarios from locations along the final arc using the new model and the locations and timing of debris point to an area towards/just past the northern end of the current search zone.)
4. Outboard flap failure analysis (examination of the likely fate of the flaperon), considering the damage witness marks and thus proximity of key components of the wing structure and flap deployment mechanisms strongly suggest that the flaps were retracted or at least in a neutral position at the time of impact. This might tend to favour a non-controlled, non-piloted impact with the ocean, though a pilot could of course have chosen to select such settings prior to impact.
Interestingly, the report points to a document compiled by the Malaysian authorities that details some 22 items of debris (both confirmed and suspected) from MH370 that have been reported to the inquiry thus far. Some of them have not previously been publicised - one of these would appear to be a section of the vertical stabiliser.
All debris thus far has been found on the costs of Mozambique, Madagascar or the Reunion/Mauritius archipelago.
Possible extension of the search zone northwards in the light of this (and other research) is reported in the Sydney Morning Herald:
More on this from the BBC and Guardian.
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Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
2hats
Dust.
The ATSB have published a report on the comprehensive study mentioned previously (point 3 of post 1969 above) that was considered at the First Principles Review of the search in November.
The study measured wind-driven drift rates of replica aircraft parts alongside oceanographic drifters and used a new ocean model informed by very accurate satellite measurements yielding estimates of surface currents that have been validated using those oceanographic drifters (and previously archived data of the same).
It essentially concludes that areas in the northern portion of the search arc, outside those previously searched (ie swathes variously either from 10nm or 21nm up to 25nm either side of the final arc) between 32.5-36 deg S, and most probably near 35S may yield results (this represents an additional new search area of some 25000 sq km). In particular, the 35S location is consistent with the absence of debris findings on the WA coastline, the absence of debris findings during the original aerial and surface search, the July 2015 arrival time of the flaperon at La Reunion and the December 2015 and onwards (only) arrival times of debris in the western Indian Ocean. Note, for comparison, the recent southern search area has been focussed on and either side of the final arc between 36-39S; an area of some 120000 sq km.
The First Principles Review concluded that:
1. There is a very high level of confidence in the search results to date in the current indicative search area. The high resolution sonar coverage is very high and the data has been subjected to a very thorough analysis. The area has been searched to a level of confidence >95% without identifying the aircraft debris field.
2. The analysis of the last two SATCOM transmissions, the likely position of the aircraft’s flaps at impact and results from recent end of flight simulations (point 2 in post 1969 above) has allowed a revision of the distance required to be searched away from the 7th arc (to within 25 NM to the east and west of that arc).
3. A residual probability map based on the comprehensive satellite communication data analysis and updated with the latest search results and the CSIRO drift analysis (ie the study above) identified a remaining area of high probability between latitudes 32.5°S and 36°S along the 7th arc.
4. The participants of the First Principles Review were in agreement on the need to search an additional area representing approximately 25,000 km² (the orange bordered area below). Based on the analysis to date, completion of this area would exhaust all prospective areas for the presence of MH370.
The outcome of the First Principles Review will inform subsequent decisions made by the Australian, Chinese and Malaysian governments regarding the future direction of any further search.
BBC coverage of the same.
The study measured wind-driven drift rates of replica aircraft parts alongside oceanographic drifters and used a new ocean model informed by very accurate satellite measurements yielding estimates of surface currents that have been validated using those oceanographic drifters (and previously archived data of the same).
It essentially concludes that areas in the northern portion of the search arc, outside those previously searched (ie swathes variously either from 10nm or 21nm up to 25nm either side of the final arc) between 32.5-36 deg S, and most probably near 35S may yield results (this represents an additional new search area of some 25000 sq km). In particular, the 35S location is consistent with the absence of debris findings on the WA coastline, the absence of debris findings during the original aerial and surface search, the July 2015 arrival time of the flaperon at La Reunion and the December 2015 and onwards (only) arrival times of debris in the western Indian Ocean. Note, for comparison, the recent southern search area has been focussed on and either side of the final arc between 36-39S; an area of some 120000 sq km.
The First Principles Review concluded that:
1. There is a very high level of confidence in the search results to date in the current indicative search area. The high resolution sonar coverage is very high and the data has been subjected to a very thorough analysis. The area has been searched to a level of confidence >95% without identifying the aircraft debris field.
2. The analysis of the last two SATCOM transmissions, the likely position of the aircraft’s flaps at impact and results from recent end of flight simulations (point 2 in post 1969 above) has allowed a revision of the distance required to be searched away from the 7th arc (to within 25 NM to the east and west of that arc).
3. A residual probability map based on the comprehensive satellite communication data analysis and updated with the latest search results and the CSIRO drift analysis (ie the study above) identified a remaining area of high probability between latitudes 32.5°S and 36°S along the 7th arc.
4. The participants of the First Principles Review were in agreement on the need to search an additional area representing approximately 25,000 km² (the orange bordered area below). Based on the analysis to date, completion of this area would exhaust all prospective areas for the presence of MH370.
The outcome of the First Principles Review will inform subsequent decisions made by the Australian, Chinese and Malaysian governments regarding the future direction of any further search.
BBC coverage of the same.
bi0boy
Power User
Judging by the pic, the replica flaperon makers need to get a new job.
MH370: New analysis reiterates plane's likely location - BBC News
MH370: New analysis reiterates plane's likely location - BBC News
2hats
Dust.
To be fair, the aim of the replica was to accurately mimic the details of the degree of buoyancy of a 777 flaperon. That is the long versus short axis waterlines arising from the degree to which it swamped, sat in the ocean and presented the trailing edge as a ‘sail’ above water, such that the combined forces arising from the ocean currents, the windage and wave impacts could all be modelled. The replicas weren’t intended to look exactly like the original damaged parts. Eventually they got their hands on a genuine 777 flaperon, cut it down to emulate the observed debris damage and then repeated their drift tests with that (compare the lower image below, their cut duplicate, with the upper image, the original recovered MH370 flaperon).
In doing so, and comparing motion to standard drifting buoys, they were able to develop a very accurate ocean drift model which enabled hindcasting. It is the timing of arrival of debris on the African coast plus the total lack of any debris being found near Western Australia that gives them confidence in their conclusions (there is a very narrow positional window consistent with the prevailing oceanic and atmospheric states at the time of the incident that accounts for both these observations).
This new research (full revised CSIRO report here) strengthens the conclusions arising from the CSIRO research outlined in post #1971: the remains of the plane are just to the north of the area that has been searched up to now. That is the plane is located between 33-36S on the 7th arc, most likely 35-36S and somewhere between 10 or 25 nautical miles up to 40 nautical miles either side of that arc (ie just beyond the 10nmi and 21nmi ranges from the 7th arc that were variously part of the original search around that latitude in 2014/early 2015 before more effort was focussed on searching up to 40nmi either side of the 7th arc to the south of there).
e2a: to clarify using the map from post #1971, the highest likelihood area is outlined (for handwaving illustrative purposes) in red below compared to the area previously searched (indicated by the grey sonar survey strips). Ideally the red area plus the area contained within the orange polygon (expanded to the 40nmi range) would be surveyed to complete an exhaustive search in the light of this new work.
2e2a: An opinion piece in AWST is arguing that, in the absence of any further government funded/led search, public bounties should be offered for the locating of the fuselage, either flight recorder, other items of interest:
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Indeliblelink
\......👁&👁......./
They didn't find the plane but they've just released the data of the sea bed scans they did.
Story Map Cascade
MH370 search maps shed light on remote depths of Indian Ocean
Story Map Cascade
MH370 search maps shed light on remote depths of Indian Ocean
2hats
Dust.
CSIRO/Geoscience Australia have published a new report refining the crash location. Examining high resolution imagery from the the French military surveillance satellite PLEIADES 1A, taken close to the 7th arc just 15 days after the event, they identified possible and probable man-made objects therein.
If some of those objects were indeed debris from MH370 where did they drift from? Utilising high resolution altimetric data from remote sensing satellites to produce a highly detailed model of the ocean currents over those 15 days they determined that most of the objects can be associated with one location, at 35.6°S 92.8°E, just east of the 7th arc and consistent with the likely crash area highlighted in their previous reports (also demonstrated to be consistent with absence of detections during the surface search, absence of debris findings on the Australian coast, discovery of the flaperon on Reunion on 29 July 2015 and discovery of debris on African shores from December 2015 onwards).
This specific location is just east of previously searched areas (in the sector labelled ‘East1’ in the figure below).
More: MH370: satellite images show 'probably man-made' objects floating in sea
If some of those objects were indeed debris from MH370 where did they drift from? Utilising high resolution altimetric data from remote sensing satellites to produce a highly detailed model of the ocean currents over those 15 days they determined that most of the objects can be associated with one location, at 35.6°S 92.8°E, just east of the 7th arc and consistent with the likely crash area highlighted in their previous reports (also demonstrated to be consistent with absence of detections during the surface search, absence of debris findings on the Australian coast, discovery of the flaperon on Reunion on 29 July 2015 and discovery of debris on African shores from December 2015 onwards).
This specific location is just east of previously searched areas (in the sector labelled ‘East1’ in the figure below).
More: MH370: satellite images show 'probably man-made' objects floating in sea
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2hats
Dust.
The ATSB have published their final operational search report and CSIRO a fourth report covering their drift studies.
2hats
Dust.
Some sources (eg CNN) are reporting that US seabed exploration company Ocean Infinity are close to agreeing a deal with the Malaysian government to resume the search for MH370, possibly (though unconfirmed - conflicting sources) on a no find, no fee basis. They would concentrate on the as yet unsearched next highest priority areas previously detailed in various posts above (East1 + East2 + West1 + West2).
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2hats
Dust.
Ocean Infinity, operating on a no find no fee basis in agreement with the Malaysian government, have contracted the Norwegian exploration vessel Seabed Constructor, which is sailing from Durban to the primary search area, to resume the search later this month.
The ship carries several autonomous survey submarines which will enable it to survey up to 1200 sq km per day.
If the most recent remaining high priority areas yield up no results they intend to target areas further north suggested by several independent experts.
The ship carries several autonomous survey submarines which will enable it to survey up to 1200 sq km per day.
If the most recent remaining high priority areas yield up no results they intend to target areas further north suggested by several independent experts.
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See jobs like this sound really interesting. That being said its probably long days of nothingness on rough seas hoping for that one break.
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