flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Interesting. I can imagine that if a split did happen the model will be Poland’s Law and Justice.I can't really see it, but Matt Godwin - who's much more plugged in to the semi-fascist end of the tory party than I am - suggests there's serious conversations along those lines happening right now in his latest mailout.
...the implosion of the party is also more structural than strategic. Dominated from head to toe by leaders, donors and MPs who lean much further to the economic right and much further to the cultural left than many of its new voters, the Conservative Party has simply never known what to do with these voters or what to say to them. It thinks it can return to the 2010s while also holding a completely different electorate.
This, alongside general incompetence, is why it is crashing in the polls, averaging a lower level of support this week than it had in the immediate aftermath of the ERM crisis, on the eve of Tony Blair’s victory in 1997, during the depths of Partygate and amid the mass resignations that finally brought Boris Johnson down. Only once in modern history has the party been lower: the spring of 2019 when the resignation of Theresa May and the rise of the Brexit Party nearly completely wiped the party out.
And that is now why some MPs and renegade politicians sense a bigger opportunity. Tonight, on Whatsapp groups and late night calls, there is open talk about the possibility of a far more profound split within British conservatism, a reconfiguration of the right. Some say Suella and others should make it clear they will not tolerate ‘a coronation’, whereby the elected Liz Truss is replaced by the unelected Rishi Sunak and/or Penny Mordaunt. They should appeal direct to Conservative members and make it clear they will not stand for what they call “a coup”. Others want to go further.
A big risk facing the Conservative Party is not just that the turmoil of the Truss government continues but there begin to emerge serious calls for an entirely new vehicle for disgruntled conservatives who simply no longer believe that today’s Conservative Party is what its name implies. ‘We are going to get smashed at the next election anyway’, the thinking goes, ‘so why not try and reshape conservatism along the way’. One MP this evening points to the early 1990s in Canada where, under first-past-the-post, liberal progressive conservatives were suddenly swept aside by a new party that was far more in tune with the working-class, non-graduate and older people who were voting for it. Sounds familiar. Might something like that emerge in Britain in the weeks and months ahead? Maybe.