Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?
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ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Not today, no. Probably not tomorrow. But after the next riot? And the one after that? (And I'm expecting those to happen within the next fortnight, btw).
The parliamentary party is far, far more right-wing than their membership. A fair few councillors have already defected, and there will be plenty of appetite for this in areas where the Lib Dems are the only opposition to the Tories. Ultimately, they're self-interested - and most of their elected politicians are councillors who will be screwed at their next election (which is coming around a lot quicker than 2015).
75 constituencies out of more than 600 (<12.5%) seems pretty doable to me.
Might as well ask them. Anyone got a database of their constituency party addresses and chairmen? A mass letter-writing campaign pointing out just how easily the Lib Dems can stop this, and what heroes they will be if they are in the vanguard that deposes Clegg and brings down the coalition ... That's gonna prick a few careerist ears up.
Those among the membership who are implacably opposed to the Tories have already walked. You're ignoring among that among the Lib Dems a) opportunism is nothing new to them - their payroll base is in local govt where sharing power with the Cons, breaking doorstep promises etc is nothing especially novel b) the primacy to LDs of "pluralism" i.e. demonstrating that coalition politics "works" trumps all other considerations.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
You're missing the fact that most of their councillors will no longer have seats in a couple of years time if they don't get Clegg out now. They have a lot more constituencies with councillors than MPs - and they control a lot of councils. This being in government thing is very new to them - and the councillors aren't going to care much if the payback is that they lose their expense accounts and local status.
You don't need all of them - less than 1 in 8 is enough.
Eh? Their L/G base is nothing new - it's been the bedrock of the party since its inception. They've learned from that how patronage cascades downwards. Of course there will be more opportunistic defections/resignations at this level but we'll see which of us is right about a leadership challenge.
little_legs
Поехали!
The Sunday Times does not have the latest YouGov poll numbers. Again. The whole Op Ed is mostly Miliband and Clegg bashing.
and this:
and this:
Bang on the money earnesto the young students on the march will be of voting age come the next election
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The other pollsters are now starting to come into line with YGs consistently awful results for the lib-dems. ComRes/Independent:
CON 36%(+1), LAB 40%(+3), LDEM 12%(-4).
CON 36%(+1), LAB 40%(+3), LDEM 12%(-4).
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
They key point here is; will the backbenchers, councillors and constituency parties ALL hold their nerve? When day in day out, they face utter, total hatred and electoral oblivion? I don't think they will
As I said, I don't think they'll all hold their nerve - there will clearly be further defections and rebellions. But if there's any party dedicated to power for its own sake it's the Lib Dems - and the base has already experienced selling out and breaking promises for themselves at local government level. Once the fees vote goes through, they'll collectively have swallowed enough shit that they'll all be tainted. Clegg stays where he is until 2015.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
but what if it becomes crystal clear that the only possible way to avoid total wipeout is to leave the coalition and break the leader?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
but you're forgetting that every other obvious potential leader is as tainted as clegg and cable in this. i think that's one thing which would prevent the lib dems having an early exit from government, who takes clegg's place.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
that's leaders for you.
What you want to do is repeatedly support every single action they take in government and just hope that one day they spontaneously start listening to their members.
little_legs
Поехали!
I know I have been defending the Lib Dems in government quite a lot, but i'm not totally uncritical of them. Increasingly these student protests are starting to get to me. My first ever involvement in politics was on the subject of tuition fees where I organised a road block and occupation at my FE college when Labour were brining them in.
I have recently been trying to put pressure on people within the party to abstain or vote against.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Fuck right off
Refused as fuck
"ethnic pakistani tosser"
What would you do without me to insult I wonder?
Refused as fuck
"ethnic pakistani tosser"
There are plenty of stupid dickhead tories around.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
My hatred is not dependent on you you egotistical dick.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
we'll never know as you show no signs of departing for pastures new.
Come on man, i'm only joking with you.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'm not
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
They've already made their bed, they're wedded to the Tories in the short to medium term whatever happens.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
It's not my overall intention, as said I enjoy exploring the arguments.
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