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Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

Quartz said:
I'll bite. Surely 'Keep the Tory out' voters in England are going to put them as second choice? For whom else would they vote? Surely not BNP or UKIP? Scottish and Welsh voters have SNP and PC, of course.

This is one area where my preferred choice of system, Approval Voting, shines. Voters can tick as many boxes as they like as there is no ordering.
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Tory out voters will vote Green/Socialist Alliance/actual left and put Labour second.
 
the button said:
As noted on the 8 May :)p), it was a case of coalition at all costs for the LibDems. This YouGov poll for The Sunday Times has: -

Tories: 40% (up 4% from election result)
Labour: 32% (up 3% from election result)
LibDem: 18% (down 5% from election result)

Where you might have expected LibDem share to go up (having demonstrated that they're capable of being in government), it looks like the electorate is not too happy with Nick.

No wonder they were so keen on the 55% thing for dissolution of parliament. :)
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Is this Thread redundant ?
 
yesterday, the times was entirely dedicted to a single message, which in a sentence can be described as: if EM's partner is afraid to commit to him, how can you? the message was rolled out by 2 of its journalists, matthew parris and hugo rifkind. both sounded bitter and derogatory.

today, the times is refusing to publish the yougov poll figures, it's front page piece Millions lose out as child benefit cut simply puts it:

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times today puts Labour two points ahead of the Tories.
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the highlights from the same piece:

The proposed child benefit cuts are central to Iain Duncan Smith's deal with the Treasury. Osborne's officials demanded upfront savings from the work and pensions secretary in return for agreeing to back his radical shake-up of the welfare system.

His welfare reforms are expected to cost at least £3 billion to implement, but are designed radically to reduce the £194 billion-a-year welfare bill in the medium to long term. Under the plans, Britain's 5.5m people on out-of-work benefits would:

- be guaranteed more money for working than doing nothing
- face immediate financial penalties for refusing to take jobs
- be forced into a US-style "workfare" programme to make them employable
- be forced to support their own children.

In an interview today with The Sunday Times, the former Tory leader describes his programme to force millions of unemployed people into work as the "most exciting [welfare policy] from a government for 40 years... It's what this government will be remembered for".
......

"There's something fundamentally wrong with a system that is happy to pay British people not to do anything, then getting somebody else to come in and do the work. You're just replacing one group of unwilling workers with another group of willing workers. That doesn't make sense," Duncan Smith said.
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In an American "workfare" style system, private companies would be paid to "do whatever it takes" to make individuals employable and find them posts. As well as skills training, this could involve teaching them how to dress smartly, sending staff to force them out of bed in the morning and offering them counselling or confidenceboosting sessions.

In theory, the current welfare system already contains an element of "conditionality" through benefit withdrawal from those who persistently refuse to work. In practice, the government claims this is almost impossible to enforce, when individuals can justifiably claim they are financially better off out of work.

Speaking for the first time about his long-running battle with the Treasury, Duncan Smith hinted that he would have resigned had he failed to secure Osborne's backing.

"The prime minister asked me to come in to reform; George asked me to come in to reform; Nick Clegg was keen for me to come in to reform... You'll have to make your own assumptions," he said.

As part of the reforms, the government will crack down on fathers who fail to support their offspring. "We are going to be quite tough on that. People who father kids have an obligation to society to support them," Duncan Smith said.

"We will say to young men who think they can get away with this - and young women too - 'You can't do that. There's no reason for somebody on a low income, working all hours and struggling to support a family, to pay for you and your children. That's all over'."
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little_legs said:
today, the times is refusing to publish the yougov poll figures , <snip>:
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The Express did this yesterday as well, simply saying their poll:

“showed Labour taking a three-point lead over the Conservatives, with Lib Dems drifting in huge numbers to Ed Miliband’s party”
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the figures were 35/38/16 - and that's from Angus Reid who traditionally have labour lower than reality.
 
Uk polling have labour and tory kneck to kneck in the polling average ,and labour two off a majority.I don't if the tories will get a bounce this week when all they will talk about that people will be watching is cuts
 
some gloating language in sunday times about the tories. anyway, here is the quote with the latest poll numbers from the ST:

The furore over child benefit last week does not appear to have damaged the Conservatives' overall popularity. The party is four points ahead of Labour on 42%, reversing a temporary poll lead for Ed Miliband last week. The Liberal Democrats are still languishing on 12%.
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Sunday times today
41/39/11

Voting intention is pretty typical of late, but some of the findings are more negative for the government. Both David Cameron and Nick Clegg’s approval ratings are down, David Cameron’s is plus 11, but Nick Clegg is minus 6, the first time he has registered a negative approval score since the general election
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On the CSR, 29% think the government have the balance between cuts and taxes right, 29% would rather have higher taxes, 15% would rather have even larger cuts. 35% think the speed of cuts is about right, 43% think it is too fast and 8% too slow. 58% think they themselves will be affected by the cuts
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It's coming.
 
where to said:
Huhne and Clegg in trouble in their constituencies:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834

I wonder why Ashcroft has had these polls carried out now, and why he had allowed the findings to be released (or is that law?).
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Moving onto Sheffield Hallam, this is currently a pretty safe Lib Dem seat for Nick Clegg, with the Conservatives currently in a distant second place. The topline figures for general voting intention in the Populus poll are LDEM 33%(-20), LAB 31%(+15), CON 28%(+4): an even bigger collapse from the Lib Dems to Labour, but as Labour start off in third place Nick Clegg narrowly holds on.
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-20 :D
 
stephj said:
LDEM 33%(-20), LAB 31%(+15), CON 28%(+4)
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not a traditional Labour seat by any means, either:

HallamGraph.png


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
 
the ST did not publish the polling figures butchersapron posted earlier, they had no party polling numbers period. their main pieces have covered the cuts extensively but mainly to say that the cuts will solve Britain's financial crisis.

dominic lawson's op ed Relax - these cuts are just a scratch said 'cameron has been useless in expalining that, in nominal terms, spending is not being cut' and called ed balls a 'vulgar keynesian'.

the other op ed said that boris johnson has won the battle of the bus fare rises for the londoners, i.e. the bus fares will go up everywhere but london. so that's bojo's mayoral election jitter taken care of.

the times continues to take the piss out of nick clegg:
Members of the National Liberal Club are wondering when the committee will commission a portrait of Nick Clegg , on the grounds that he's the most successful Liberal politician since Lloyd George. But is there room? Wall space at the London club is at such a premium that WE Gladstone stares down from the wall of an upstairs gents' lavatory.
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a man from southwark council came on sat chasing oustanding voter registration forms. he said he's never seen a surge in voter registration he had seen in the past few weeks. i hope it's a good sign.
 
you mean not a good sign for lib dems? i think the man was trying to say that simon hughes is dead meat. he just can't say that outloud.
 
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