Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

[little_legs]

don't know how credible populus guys are. nevertheless, their findings won't please clegg

Leader who 'cares more for himself than public'
Times, The (London, England) - Thursday, September 16, 2010
Author: Sam Coates

A majority of voters believe that Nick Clegg is more interested in a big government job than what is good for Britain, according to a Populus poll for The Times.

However, the public broadly appear to welcome the Deputy Prime Minister's flexibility, and there is widespread support for the coalition in principle. Despite a drop in support for the Liberal Democrats from 23 per cent in the election to 14 per cent, remaining supporters are happy with the party's position in government.

More than eight out of ten Lib Dem supporters think that the coalition is going well, compared with six out of ten members of the public. This suggests little appetite for a revolt at next week's Lib Dem conference.

Despite their enthusiasm, Lib Dems are considerably more nervous about the coalition's handling of the spending review than the public at large.

Overall, 29 per cent of Lib Dem supporters think that the coalition is dealing with the spending review well rather than badly, compared with 72 per cent of Tory supporters.

Only 2 per cent of Lib Dems think that George Osborne, the Chancellor, will get the right balance between tackling debt and protecting the vulnerable, and only a third trust the job to Mr Clegg .

Seven out of ten voters say that Mr Clegg has changed his mind on key issues now that he is working with the Conservatives, while half believe he is more interested in a big government job rather than what is good for Britain.

Four out of ten who voted Lib Dem in May say that they would have voted differently had they known the consequences.

One in five would have voted Labour, and 5 per cent Tory.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,508 adults over 18 by telephone between September 10 and 12, 2010. For more details see Populus.co.uk

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

mumsnet is unashamedly tory. their owner is a sporadic guest of the 94.4FM (that's BBC London), during her guest appearances she carpet bombs the air waves with the stats of what she likes to refer to as 'mumsnet survey'. the 'survey' findings always sound like the tory party manifesto.

Kate Williams? She's no Tory.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Kate Williams? She's no Tory.

Tbh, I don't know who owns mumsnet. Point is that this a constituency that very heavily leaned LD, and they roasted Clegg. Mumsnet politics is a bit like mine - I hate bullies and like people.

 

[little_legs]

i don't remember her name, but the lady has an irish accent. you are the first person albeit on the internet to inform me that they are a lib dem consitutuency. from listening to the woman with the irish accent, i wouldn't have come to that conclusion. but then again... i was told earlier on this forum that claire fox used to be a socialist, which is scary in itself.

i would hope that the members & supporters of mumsnet are not siding with a particular politicial party, they are probably just on their own side, making sure their interests are looked after. and that's probably the reason why clegg got a deserved kicking. he can't simply assume that he owns them.

I'm not a Tory, pleads Clegg
Times, The (London, England) - Friday, September 17, 2010
Author: Sam Coates

Nick Clegg resorted to pleading "I'm not a Tory" in the face of an angry onslaught from women on the Mumsnet website last night, insisting that the Tories and Lib Dems were "as distinct as we've always been".

The Deputy Prime Minister faced a volley of abuse from contributors, with one, called Cupcakesandbuntin, saying: "If I'd wanted to be dragged kicking and screaming back into Thatcherism, I'd have voted Cameron. Turns out I and many of my friends and family voted Clegg and got dragged back to Thatcherism anyway."

He replied: "Let me be clear, this is nothing like the 1980s. Then whole communities and industries were gutted. I'm an MP from a great northern city - Sheffield - and I know that people there and across the country fear the spectre of the 1980s. But we are doing things very differently."

Mr Clegg told the users of the website that he was attending a UN summit in America next week where he would be "making sure the UK with others plays its part in helping the world's poorest". His comment came the day after he wrote in The Times that the British Government must not provide "a giant cheque written by the State to compensate the poor for their predicament".

 

[Roonster]

The lib-Dems have ceased to exist.. they are a dead parrot!

 

[butchersapron]

IOS/ COMRES poll finds that 40% of lib-dem voters will now never vote lib-dem again.

 

[the button]

IOS/ COMRES poll finds that 40% of lib-dem voters will now never vote lib-dem again.

The flipside being that 60% are happy with the coalition. 40% of bewildered liberals wander off, leaving 60% of cuts-happy bastards.

 

[the button]

Interesting to see David Milliband & Caroline Lucas vying to present their respective parties as the natural home of the 40%, too.

 

[butchersapron]

Would leave them with 13 seats though. They can have 100% of that if they want.

 

[the button]

Would leave them with 13 seats though. They can have 100% of that if they want.

Can't see them getting many second choice votes from Labour supporters under the proposed AV system, either. Would be nice to see the reform they've been whining about for years contributing to their electoral annihilation.

 

[little_legs]

holding at 13%. the following is an excerpt of a long article

SOLD OUT! To the man in the yellow tie - Whatever their activists gathering in Liverpool think, the Lib Dems' hopes are now tied to those of their Tory partners
Sunday Times, The (London, England) - Sunday, September 19, 2010
Author: Isabel Oakeshott; Marie Woolf

One hot Friday afternoon as the summer recess drew to a close, Nick Clegg gathered his most trusted advisers for a meeting at Chevening, the grace-and-favour mansion in Kent that the deputy prime minister shares with William Hague, the foreign secretary.

In one of the grand state rooms the Liberal Democrat leader and his aides sat around a polished mahogany table chewing over the latest opinion polls and pondering the future of the party.

In 1911, when Lord Rosebery, the former prime minister, was a guest at the splendid 115-room property, he crossed out Chevening on a piece of headed writing paper and substituted the word Paradise. As the Liberal Democrats have rapidly discovered, however, the reality of being in government is anything but.

After soaring as high as 34% in the opinion polls during the election campaign, the party's rating has plummeted. Today's YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts them at 13%; and with the full force of public sector cuts yet to hit, and bitter battles ahead over classic Lib Dem hangups such as Trident, nuclear power and voting reform, it is likely to get far, far worse.

Today Clegg and his ministerial team must face the music at the biggest and most keenly awaited annual conference in the party's history.

For the first time in more than half a century, the party is in government - albeit as junior partners in a coalition. More than 6,500 people are heading to Liverpool to hear what the deputy prime minister has to say.

As well as party members and journalists, the place will be swarming with lobbyists and representatives of bluechip companies - breeds virtually unknown to the Lib Dems.

These days the stereotype of Lib Dems as bearded sandalwearers is a touch unfair. And no longer will security be a simple matter of a few old dears in yellow T-shirts having a cursory look through handbags.

This year the Lib Dems will come face to face with the "ring of steel" that has characterised Tory and Labour party conferences for years.

Expect grumblings about infringements of civil liberties if they are asked for their fingerprints or subjected to the weird "puff of air" device that detects explosive substances concealed in clothing.

Activists are also expected to find out how it feels to be on the wrong side of anti-government demonstrations. Labour and Tory activists trooping into conference centres are used to running the gauntlet of placardwielding mobs. For many Lib Dems, the experience is likely to be a huge culture shock that will act as a sharp reminder of the extraordinary step they have taken by joining the Conservatives in government.

For the Lib Dem MPs who are now ministers, and the small but earnest band of formerly lowly paid Lib Dem aides who have found themselves transported from the anonymity of the party's headquarters to the corridors of power, the decision to enter the coalition probably seems a "no-brainer". As well as bumped-up salaries courtesy of the taxpayer, they have status and real influence for the first time in their political careers.

And they are enjoying it.

Vince Cable still goes round with a hangdog expression, but one Lib Dem old hand notes that even the business secretary is getting used to the trappings of power.

"You shouldn't read too much into Vince's gloomy face," he said. "He's always looked like that. He likes to give the impression that he's uncomfortable being in government, but I've noticed that if you ask him things, he now talks quite grandly about getting 'his officials' to look into it."

The party's high command is taking heart from private popularity polls which put it on 17-18 points - five or six more than public polls. Though Clegg this weekend admitted there is "acute anxiety" among the public about the scale of cuts the coalition is driving through, most of his members seem to think things are going reasonably well.

According to a YouGov poll of Lib Dems for The Sunday Times, 58% approve of the coalition's record to date, while only 23% disapprove. More than half (53%) think the coalition will last its intended five years.

But the coalition is only four months old and this is the easy bit. The big question is whether the historic gamble will pay off or whether, for the sake of a few years in Downing Street and a few ministerial cars, Clegg has condemned his party to electoral oblivion.

On the Sunday after Clegg's summit at Chevening, he invited the same crowd to join him and his wife, Miriam, for a slap-up lunch.

Guests included Polly Mackenzie, the Lib Dems' "blue skies thinker" who shares an office in No 10 with Steve Hilton, her Tory equivalent; Jonny Oates, now the Lib Dem leader's chief of staff; Sean Kemp and Lena Pietsch, the most senior figures in the party's press machine; and Norman Lamb, who boasts the grand-sounding title of chief parliamentary and political adviser to the deputy prime minister. "It was all very relaxed and jolly. Of course we talked shop - it's impossible not to when you're all together like that - but it was supposed to be a social occasion, not a working lunch," recalled one who was there.

Friday's meeting had been serious business, however. The discussion focused on how concerned the party's high command should be about the gloomy polls, and how, in the long run, they should go about disentangling themselves from the Tory embrace.

"The issue is how we go about a sort of phased withdrawal from the coalition before the next election. It might seem ages away, but the process will have to begin well in advance - probably at least 18 months before polling day," said a Lib Dem source.

What troubles many in the party is the question of their identity. Some fear Clegg's close working relationship with David Cameron may make some voters think the party has been swallowed up by the Tories.

Both partners in No 10 understand this problem, meaning that public "rows" between senior figures in the two parties may not always be what they seem.

"Sometimes we'll say to the Tories, 'You do realise we have to have a row with you about this, don't you?' And they'll say, 'Okay, sure, can you do it on Tuesday?'" said one senior Lib Dem figure, not entirely in jest.

Many party activists will be dismayed that apparent clashes between the coalition partners - such as when Clegg declared at prime minister's questions that the Iraq war was "illegal"; when Cable attacked the government's cap on immigration last week; and when Chris Huhne, the energy secretary, expressed doubts about the appointment of the Topshop tycoon Sir Philip Green as a government adviser - could be so cynically manufactured.

But they may not be surprised. A new book to be published this month exposes the gulf between the leadership and the wider party - with some party leaders apparently taking a disdainful view of the rank-and-file.

One "senior member of the leadership" quoted in the book, The British General Election of 2010, by Dennis Kavanagh and Professor Philip Cowley, describes the party as "a bit like an adolescent child ... its voice had broken and it had developed some muscles, but it still had child-like instincts".

Apparently the rank and file feel much the same way about the leadership. The book says some members of the party's federal policy committee see Clegg as "petulant" and Cable as "obnoxious" and "deeply arrogant".

There is also a despairing assessment of the party's struggle to adapt to power by a figure described as a key member of the Lib Dem team: "This is a party that spends five years writing 35 policy papers and nine months writing a manifesto, and it manages to come up with just one policy that wins votes [raising the income tax threshold]; two policies which lose votes [immigration and tax credit changes] and 7,000 policies that no one gives a flying f*** about."

Some of those tensions will be played out at this week's conference, with a particularly stormy debate expected on the coalition's Tory-led school reforms.

A critical emergency motion has also been tabled on the NHS reforms of Andrew Lansley, the health secretary, but activists are unsure whether it will be chosen for discussion by the conference committee.

One MP, disappointed that health policy was not being debated in the auditorium, expressed concern about the level of reform being proposed by the coalition government "There is no appetite for rootand-branch reform and concern that in the coalition agreement it said there would be no top-down reorganisation of the NHS," he said.

Another MP said the international development paper being proposed looked "wishy washy", compared with Lib Dem policy. "I am not at all impressed," the MP said. "This used to be a very important area for us."

However, such reservations are unlikely to lead to any dramatic interludes.

"Very small party conferences are much more dangerous," said one veteran Lib Dem MP. "When only hard-core party activists bother coming, you're more likely to get trouble. But with such a big crowd this time, I think it will be more a case of sparklers, than fireworks."

Those may come later as benefits cuts begin to bite and, in the longer term, if the referendum next year on the alternative vote electoral system fails, as Lib Dem internal polling suggests it might.

from the same piece

If anyone suggests Clegg is sounding too like a Tory, MPs and peers are advised to reply: "In power the Liberal Democrats are delivering on our election promises - sticking true to our liberal ideals."

 

[butchersapron]

Two days in and they're down to 11%. Only way is down.

 

[frogwoman]

11%?

 

[frogwoman]

If anyone suggests Clegg is sounding too like a Tory, MPs and peers are advised to reply: "In power the Liberal Democrats are delivering on our election promises - sticking true to our liberal ideals."

 

[butchersapron]

It's true though.

 

[frogwoman]

I know, that's the worst part!

 

[shagnasty]

con 39% lab 39 % ldem 13%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

 

[butchersapron]

Labour leading soon.

 

[_angel_]

I can't really imagine why or how anyone would vote libdem again now. Anyone happy with what's happening may as well just vote tory. Most people I know voted libdem because they wanted to keep the tories out. Just what is the point in them existing?

 

[ymu]

There isn't, any more. Even AV is unlikely to save them now, which would be a rather delicious irony.

Decent chance of the Greens becoming the new "third party" too. Their economic policies are pretty decent - if they manage not to dilute them on the way to third partydom.

 

[little_legs]

just had a look at the sunday times, they only mention labour vs tory polling numbers as if the lib dems have fallen off the radar:

Although a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times put Labour neck and neck with the Tories, on 38% to the Conservatives' 39%, some MPs fear the party could be in opposition for several terms.

the sundays times is the only paper i had a look at this weekend, and i don't think i've seen a broadsheet using so many pejoratives about the unions in a single issue.

anyone's got the latest numbers on lib dems?

 

[butchersapron]

Give it till weds. Labour ahead

 

[little_legs]

the rest of the sunday times appears to be an assualt on lib dems actually:

this is from Clegg troubled by tax status of £1m donors:

The Choudhries, whose company Alpha Healthcare runs care homes, had a turnover of £57m last year and paid £165,024 in UK tax. Its parent company is based in the British Virgin Islands In the run-up to the general election they were the Liberal Democrats' second highest donors, giving the party £205,000 between March and April this year. Only the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust donated more.

and then in Own up, Danny - you're a dodger too:

There are times when the hypocrisy of a political party goes beyond the merely irritating and attains a level of shamelessness to which incredulous laughter is the only response. This is how we should react to the Liberal Democrats' big theme in the week of their party conference: that anyone who takes steps to limit their tax payments within the law is no different from someone who lives off fraudulently claimed benefits.

The Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, draws no distinction between those who illegally evade tax and those who employ accountants to minimise payments legally; he told his party faithful that "we will be ruthless with these often wealthy people", whom he described as being "like the benefit cheat ... morally indefensible".

This is the same Danny Alexander - I have checked; it really is - who designated his London apartment as his second home, for the purpose of claiming £37,000 of "parliamentary" expenses, but then described the same residence to HM Revenue and Customs as his main home, to avoid capital gains tax when he sold it. I'm genuinely interested to know how Mr Alexander thinks he has the moral authority to tell the rest of us that we are no better than crooks if we employ an accountant to minimise our tax bills.

and then they go on and on about Philip Green, Baron Oakeshott of Seagrove Bay and Michael Brown (I need to read up on the latter 2)

 

[ymu]

Perhaps there should be a rule limiting donations to a political party to a certain percentage of tax paid in the UK. With the percentage being considerably lower than 125%, of course. That is appalling.

 

[temper_tantrum]

Decent chance of the Greens becoming the new "third party" too. Their economic policies are pretty decent - if they manage not to dilute them on the way to third partydom.

Technically the DUP would be the 3rd-largest party (by number of Commons seats)
Or, if we're talking share of the popular vote, UKIP is sadly far bigger than the Greens I think?

 

[butchersapron]

Labour in lead

39/40/12

 

[Santino]

lol

 

[where to]

Labour in lead

39/40/12

astonishing, considering the cuts haven't even been felt yet.

although i expect them to dip a little after tory conference/ ed-baiting, before rising again post-October.

 

[little_legs]

From The Times, 28/09:

Last night, however, a poll for The Sun found Labour to be more popular than the Tories for the first time in three years. The YouGov survey of 1,948 adults put Labour on 40 per cent, the Conservatives on 39 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent.

 

[Quartz]

Can't see them getting many second choice votes from Labour supporters under the proposed AV system, either.

I'll bite. Surely 'Keep the Tory out' voters in England are going to put them as second choice? For whom else would they vote? Surely not BNP or UKIP? Scottish and Welsh voters have SNP and PC, of course.

This is one area where my preferred choice of system, Approval Voting, shines. Voters can tick as many boxes as they like as there is no ordering.