teqniq
DisMembered
I would like to share your optimism but I fear it may be misplaced.
Labour leadership
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nino_savatte
No pasaran!
That kind of research will take time. As for the polls, I have my own issues with them, namely the evident lack of self-reflexivity and the rigid nature of quantitative surveys.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
In the old days, the PLP at least pretended to listen to the membership and the NEC.
Now they don't even make the pretence
Nowadays they don't have to. "In the old days" we (the membership back then) had the power to at least partly bring the PLP to heel, as did the NEC. Now both the membership and the NEC are toothless, thanks to Mandelson and Blair's "reforms".
Disingenuous nonsense, plenty of very left wing people voted labour in the election, just look at the comments on Andy Burnhams F/B page, from LP members, etc.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Ineresting and not what I expected. My money would still be on Burnham though.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
'would have been' not will be?
YouSir
Retired from Urban
Yeah but they (mostly) didn't vote for left wing candidates, did they? They voted for Labour.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
fighting for bagsy not last place with the local far right loons and mr Single Issue mainly it seems
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Guardian report.'would have been' not will be?
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Guardian journalist can't write shocker.
ska invita
back on the other side
2nd preference stats
Burham's: 52% to Cooper, 26% to Corbyn, 10% to Kendall
Cooper's: 44% to Burnham, 22% to Corbyn, 15% to Kendall
Kendall's: 55% to Cooper, 22% to Burnham, 6% to Corbyn
Corbyn's: 26% to Cooper, 40% to Burnham, 5% to Kendall
Burham's: 52% to Cooper, 26% to Corbyn, 10% to Kendall
Cooper's: 44% to Burnham, 22% to Corbyn, 15% to Kendall
Kendall's: 55% to Cooper, 22% to Burnham, 6% to Corbyn
Corbyn's: 26% to Cooper, 40% to Burnham, 5% to Kendall
YouSir
Retired from Urban
Said it a few times at the election and to be honest I'm not sure things would have been much different otherwise but TUSC was left a wad of cash with the expressed requirement that it be spent on electoral activity. Without that I doubt they'd have stood in as many places and might have focused their efforts more. Also would have handed fewer candidacies to whoever turned up and fancied it perhaps. If they last we'll find out next time though I guess.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Kendall comfortably bringing up the rear, thank the good lord.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Kendall's supporters 6% 2nd pref for Corbyn! Lol
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
I was wondering whether, if you wanted Corbyn, a 2nd pref for Liz might be the way to go in order to deny it to Burnham - and even Cooper. I know very little about how the system works, though.
ska invita
back on the other side
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Probably some truth in that, but a blank 2nd pref would seem to be more effective, if that's what they're up to.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Actually, I think your second pref is only counted should your first pref drop out. Seeing as though Corbyn will make it through the first round, your second pref would never be counted, only those of voters whose first pref candidate didn't make it through.
So probably no point in a tactical second pref at all in that case.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, but there is a point for the no-hoper's 1st preferencers.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Well, that's sewn it up for Corbyn: apparently mumsnet have declared their support for trying to get into his pants as they declare "phwoar." I thought they'd be all about Burnham's eyelashes (they are very pretty). I guess we do live in the age of beards, though (and rightly so).
On the flipside, Icke has come out in support of him too.
On the flipside, Icke has come out in support of him too.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I heard part of a R4 discussion 3 or 4 days after the election, with various pollsters trying to get at why they'd fucked up so badly. From what I remember they came close to saying their data was correct, but they had put the wrong interpretation on it. That sort of statement could mean all sorts, methodologically, but they were hinting that the data said Tory victory whilst they were feeding the newspapers a Labour/SNP victory. Astonishing stuff really. They also hinted at a herding effect, where they were seeing signs of a tory victory but were too scared to say so as the other polling organisations were clustered around the Labour/hung parliament outcome.
I'm sure there will be more substantial analysis of how they fucked up, but that immediate stuff really highlighted how the pollsters saw their own image and reputation as far more important than having any confidence in their analysis. A case of being haunted by their previous fuck ups, to the point where they made an even greater fuck up in 2015.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Anthony Wells' (YG) blog is providing a useful commentary on the unfolding polling post-mortem.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9460
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not only regretted, but (along with McTernan) chose to describe her decision as one made by a moron. Nice touch; the use of an antiquated, eugenicist term denoting (mild) intellectual disability.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
That's exactly what this is, they're showing themselves up for having the contempt for people we know they've always had. Where do they think this support for Corbyn is coming from? A select bunch of 'radical' union members?
Chatting to my taxi driver yesterday, he said him and all the muslims he knows pretty much hate labour, but since Corbyn is in the race they're suddenly perking up and getting behind him, and want him to win. And it's not just going to be the anti-war aspect -- especially around here (average wage is £16k) poverty is rife, it's solid labour (MP-wise, not so much the local council), but apart from old allegiances and a sense of not having much other choice, there's not much of a reason to vote labour or feel hopeful or enthusiastic about them. They did fuck all for a place like Stoke when they were in, but the idea that the Tories would do even less doesn't really come as much of a consolation. But as cheesy and idealistic as it might be, it's damn refreshing to hear someone breaking ranks and saying things we've been conditioned to not say anymore, and I dare say it gives a glimmer of hope to a lot of people who've traditionally been labour and don't look anywhere else. It's hardly surprising he'll garner support from people who'd all but dropped out of engaging altogether.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Exactly this. It bemuses me that people think Labour need to chase the Tory swing voters to win an election when there are far more people don't vote at all than are swingers. And out of those people that don't vote, the biggest reasons cited are that all the parties are the same, or that none of the mainstream parties represent their views. The biggest concerns of disengaged voters are things like poverty and job insecurity, i.e. all those things that are traditional labour issues.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Brilliant logic - 'I deeply regret allowing people to express a choice. My defence is that when I gave them permission to vote for other candidates it was an empty gesture and I didn't think they'd actually do it'.
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