Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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bimble
floofy
Breakdown of the numbers on a link at the bottom of this page. I don't think it tells us much about anything tbh. Very small online sample amongst whom 'don't know' seems to be winning.
Fozzie Bear
Well-Known Member
It doesn't mean anything in the grander scale of things but this cheers the soul on a wet Monday
cantsin
Well-Known Member
View attachment 132377
It doesn't mean anything in the grander scale of things but this cheers the soul on a wet Monday
agreed, fairplay to Jewdas, gets a bit frickin tiring listening to Corbo / Lewis / everyone on the Lab Left unquestioningly focusing on police cuts instead of root causes of urban poverty / alienation
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Rayner made an attempt at the weekend to at least start to talk about things other than policing (although she did mention the police as a part of it). It seemed that the interviewer had absolutely no interest in it though.
StigoftheDig
Humdrum mud drummer
I'm sure I saw someone say YouGov were a "Tory company"... apologies if I've misread or misremembered (I've tried a search and can't find it, but "YouGov and Tory" isn't exactly a rare combination).
Perhaps I've been reading the name as YouGove! Maybe that's the real truth!
I do believe there is a concerted campaign to smear and undermine Corbyn. I suppose it's naive of me not to remember that there was a concerted campaign to smear and undermine Neil Kinnock, Ed Milliband, Ramsey MacDonald...
I also think it's probably true that he is a relatively easy target for the right wing press. He's easy to label as a "terrorist sympathiser" or pacifist or even as a communist. He's newly in charge of the party and there's a decent proportion of the parliamentary party who can't stand what he stands for and seem happy to join in the kicking via anonymous briefings to their mates in a press that even on the "left" is generally far more centrist that Corbyn is.
I do think that Labour should/could be doing quite a lot better in the polls. This government is shite. The Lib Dems and UKIP collapsed at the last election. The Cons key project is Brexit and polling shows that very few people are very happy with what they're doing on that...
What a lot of things I "think". But I can't point to any great knowledge or insight to support those thoughts. And, usefully, I have next to no idea what to do about them.
Perhaps I've been reading the name as YouGove! Maybe that's the real truth!
I do believe there is a concerted campaign to smear and undermine Corbyn. I suppose it's naive of me not to remember that there was a concerted campaign to smear and undermine Neil Kinnock, Ed Milliband, Ramsey MacDonald...
I also think it's probably true that he is a relatively easy target for the right wing press. He's easy to label as a "terrorist sympathiser" or pacifist or even as a communist. He's newly in charge of the party and there's a decent proportion of the parliamentary party who can't stand what he stands for and seem happy to join in the kicking via anonymous briefings to their mates in a press that even on the "left" is generally far more centrist that Corbyn is.
I do think that Labour should/could be doing quite a lot better in the polls. This government is shite. The Lib Dems and UKIP collapsed at the last election. The Cons key project is Brexit and polling shows that very few people are very happy with what they're doing on that...
What a lot of things I "think". But I can't point to any great knowledge or insight to support those thoughts. And, usefully, I have next to no idea what to do about them.
StigoftheDig
Humdrum mud drummer
Maybe that's the literal "party line"?
bemused
Well-Known Member
It is amazing they don't have a decent lead over the Tories, given they seem to be playing the 'stay together for the kid's line' - Keir Starmer has been a bit shit.
StigoftheDig
Humdrum mud drummer
OK. I'm surprised the Tories aren't doing a lot worse. They're a shambles but they remain on about 40%. Mind you, so does Trump.
I see your point though - an election is a long way away (in theory) and these things change at that time and not before. . .
I see your point though - an election is a long way away (in theory) and these things change at that time and not before. . .
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
That’s not true, or at least not always true. Look at the long run polling data before the 97 and 2010 elections.
Labour have got everything in their favour - green/LD support collapsed into labour, cobweb left united behind Corbyn, union support, UKIP collapse
(Tho this also benefits the Tories), May’s credibility shot by the election, DUP propping up the Tories, widening divisions in their ranks on Europe, remainers with nowhere else to go, working class voters with nowhere else to go, the austerity narrative dead in the water etc etc
What are the obstacles? A hostile media, some disgruntled third wayers. What else?
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Yeah, the polls haven't moved for the best part of a year. Regardless of which party has the wind beneath their sails, the dial hasn't twitched.
Surely by now people should have worked out there's forces at play that have changed the political landscape. I think that blog is pretty good if a bit long winded - the last par is a good enough explanation IMO.
Politics is paralysed for the time being. Tory efforts at capturing the youth vote are doomed to fail because, even now, they aren't capable of affecting a proper concern for them. Likewise, while it is right for Labour to try and reach out to older voters this is not terribly fertile ground because, in the imagined community of this coalition, Jezza himself is anti-British and wants to remove the very things that keep Britain secure and safe. What we can look forward to then is no sudden movements in the polls for the foreseeable. Assuming the Tories limp on to 2022, even with the sex and harassment scandals, the Brexit shambles, and the fall out of the Paradise Papers, but assuming they don't do anything egregiously stupid on top, like the dementia tax, they will slowly diminish as Labour slowly rises. And this is because the social conditions producing this state of affairs aren't going anywhere. The abnormal is the new normal, so you'd better get used to it: polarisation is here to stay.
Surely by now people should have worked out there's forces at play that have changed the political landscape. I think that blog is pretty good if a bit long winded - the last par is a good enough explanation IMO.
Politics is paralysed for the time being. Tory efforts at capturing the youth vote are doomed to fail because, even now, they aren't capable of affecting a proper concern for them. Likewise, while it is right for Labour to try and reach out to older voters this is not terribly fertile ground because, in the imagined community of this coalition, Jezza himself is anti-British and wants to remove the very things that keep Britain secure and safe. What we can look forward to then is no sudden movements in the polls for the foreseeable. Assuming the Tories limp on to 2022, even with the sex and harassment scandals, the Brexit shambles, and the fall out of the Paradise Papers, but assuming they don't do anything egregiously stupid on top, like the dementia tax, they will slowly diminish as Labour slowly rises. And this is because the social conditions producing this state of affairs aren't going anywhere. The abnormal is the new normal, so you'd better get used to it: polarisation is here to stay.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
A few years ago we were assured that fragmentation was here to stay.
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Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
He's a sociologist. When he has enough time, he always tries to get into the meat of whys and hows.
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
There's a follow-up piece here: All That Is Solid ...: The Economics of Polarisation
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Erm yes. That’s correct. The polls show a polarised electorate.
This is neither unique in competitive politics or surprising given the more explicit offer of social democracy by labour compared to the flabby agenda of May. Even that agenda has been abandoned in favour of day to day survival.
However, it does not explain why 40% plus of the electorate - including large number in the deindustrialised towns and zones outside the cities of the Midlands, north and Wales - aren’t coming to Corbyn
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Ta. I’ll have a read of this now.
It is. It was founded by Nadhim Zahawi and Jeffrey Archer’s speech writer
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Is their money made by returning tory favourable poling results? I think being noted as a bent unreliable company might hurt their corporate profile.
sleaterkinney
Well-Known Member
Are we moving on to rationalising the Corbyn defeat already?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Thinking about the results of the election? Why yes, i think many people have. Join us.
StigoftheDig
Humdrum mud drummer
In favour of Corbyn I'd chuck in that polls are national (I think these are), and Corbyn has brought thousands upon thousands of very enthusiastic volunteers into the party who will be good at getting the vote out and he does seem to have energised local parties.
I heard a podcast the other day that said one of the reasons Iain MacNicol had to be replaced was that his election strategy had been disastrous. In his defence, I suspect he would say he was running a defensive strategy with the consensus view being that Labour were going to get hammered. . .
Then there'll be this Facebook post from a Mr Zinoviev...
I heard a podcast the other day that said one of the reasons Iain MacNicol had to be replaced was that his election strategy had been disastrous. In his defence, I suspect he would say he was running a defensive strategy with the consensus view being that Labour were going to get hammered. . .
Then there'll be this Facebook post from a Mr Zinoviev...
how did your election predictions work out last year?
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The polls won’t be bent, but there’s likely to be an element of choosing what questions to ask that can then set/serve agendas when reported in the press. Not quite as bent as out-and-out push polling, and of course third parties can commission their polling for exactly this purpose (‘is Corbyn weak’, ‘who should replace Corbyn’ etc)
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The politics VI questions are rock hard and never changing.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Being bent is a whole world of difference from being wrong.
While YouGov lost their nerve at the last minute with their main poll last June, up until the last poll or two they were pretty close, and their experimental model almost exactly predicted the result of last year's election, right down to proper unexpected outliers like Canterbury. Voter Intention polls are just very difficult to weight correctly - They are not fucking bent. Conspiracy bollocks.
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