Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[belboid]

bookies had it as 60-44 against JC winning as an indie six months ago, probably hasn't changed much since.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Doesn't matter, in 2019 54,000 people voted 34,000 for him. He needs about 17-18,000 to win. Even if he could take EVERY Green vote he would lose by a landslide without taking about a third of the Labour vote off them.
It's not impossible if Labour offer a particularly shit candidate but I think the odds are against him.

There will also be a fair few young (and older) people who'd vote for Corbyn rather than not voting at all. I can see Corbyn winning very easily.

We'll see. If he stands, one of us will be proved wrong.

 

[Sue]

It's possible that Corbyn as a personality might win his own seat or even London Mayor (as Livingstone managed), but there seems little chance that it will generate a new radical left social democratic party.

Phew. Just as well no-one's actually suggesting/arguing that, eh?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

bookies had it as 60-44 against JC winning as an indie six months ago, probably hasn't changed much since.

Is that 'if he stands as an indie' or 'I bet this is what will happen from now'?

Significant difference - the latter has to factor in the chance that he won't stand as an indie.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

fwiw I don't fancy his chances as mayor. I don't think his personal vote would stretch that far. Be delighted to be proved wrong, but my prediction there would be either Khan wins with Corbyn way behind or the Tory wins with Corbyn closer.

 

[belboid]

Is that 'if he stands as an indie' or 'I bet this is what will happen from now'?

Significant difference - the latter has to factor in the chance that he won't stand as an indie.

the former

 

[platinumsage]

Why does it matter whether Corbyn wins the next GE as an independent or not? Surely it's entirely irrelevant to anything. What has he achieved as an independent MP so far? How would extending that for five years help anything at all?

 

[hitmouse]

I think that coupled with women's rights* will impact results in the next election, loss of seats and/or low turnout.

*I know a fair few lefty gender critical feminists who feel politically homeless and won't be voting Labour.

Are you sure this is a line of argument you want to be opening up in this particular week?

 

[YouSir]

fwiw I don't fancy his chances as mayor. I don't think his personal vote would stretch that far. Be delighted to be proved wrong, but my prediction there would be either Khan wins with Corbyn way behind or the Tory wins with Corbyn closer.

Doubt he'd ever run, reckon he'd demolish Khan's base though given that no one at all seems to actually like or support him.

 

[YouSir]

Why does it matter whether Corbyn wins the next GE as an independent or not? Surely it's entirely irrelevant to anything. What has he achieved as an independent MP so far? How would extending that for five years help anything at all?

Because it'd be funny.

 

[tommers]

 

[tommers]

Because it'd be funny.

And that is pretty much all we have left.

 

[belboid]

Doubt he'd ever run, reckon he'd demolish Khan's base though given that no one at all seems to actually like or support him.

He's second of those still running for office according to a poll in the last six months.

The most popular Labour politicians in the UK | Politics | YouGov Ratings

The most popular Labour politicians in the UK according to YouGov Ratings. Popularity is based on millions of responses from the British public and YouGov's innovative survey methodology.

yougov.co.uk

 

[YouSir]

He's second of those still running for office according to a poll in the last six months.

The most popular Labour politicians in the UK | Politics | YouGov Ratings

The most popular Labour politicians in the UK according to YouGov Ratings. Popularity is based on millions of responses from the British public and YouGov's innovative survey methodology.

yougov.co.uk

I'd put that 22% popularity down to the effect he has on racist nutters which, in fairness, is always good. Genuinely never met anyone who rates him though, Left or Center. He's just not the Tory.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anti-brexit people like Khan's anti-brexitness.

And he more or less kept his word on transport prices.

And.

Um.

Nope, that's it.

 

[belboid]

I'd put that 22% popularity down to the effect he has on racist nutters which, in fairness, is always good. Genuinely never met anyone who rates him though, Left or Center. He's just not the Tory.

I've met a couple (not living in London probably affects it somewhat). Him and Corbyn were their favourite MP's. Which is just weird, but I guess they were the only ones standing up to the Tories at the time (it was pre-Burn ham becoming Manchester mayor, iirr)

 

[PR1Berske]

When the Labour Party advertises for candidates to apply for the vacant seat of Islington North, while Corbyn is still the MP, I can imagine all sorts of things happening, and not many of them are pretty

 

[MickiQ]

There will also be a fair few young (and older) people who'd vote for Corbyn rather than not voting at all. I can see Corbyn winning very easily.

We'll see. If he stands, one of us will be proved wrong.

Indeed if it's me feel free to remind of that fact. I don't think it's impossible just not very likely. A more likely (and probably more contentious) scenario is if his local party insist on picking him despite Starmer's diktat.
After all regardless of how he fairs outside the party is the fact that for them he is a proven winner. Starmer may very well regret this no matter how it pans out.

 

[Pickman's model]

Indeed if it's me feel free to remind of that fact. I don't think it's impossible just not very likely. A more likely (and probably more contentious) scenario is if his local party insist on picking him despite Starmer's diktat.
After all regardless of how he fairs outside the party is the fact that for them he is a proven winner. Starmer may very well regret this no matter how it pans out.

Shammer will regret a lot of things before it's all over

 

[Pickman's model]

When the Labour Party advertises for candidates to apply for the vacant seat of Islington North, while Corbyn is still the MP, I can imagine all sorts of things happening, and not many of them are pretty

What sort of shit do you think shammer wants to inflict on Islington North?

 

[hash tag]

Shammer will regret a lot of things before it's all over

Dont bet on that. He is trying to show he is being tough and also trying to appeal to the populist vote.
Fwiw I don't reckon JC will stand for London I don't think it's his thing.
Has he got the stomach for standing for another term in the next GE either as labour or indie?

 

[PR1Berske]

What sort of shit do you think shammer wants to inflict on Islington North?

Current selections point to local worthies being ditched and quite well regarded figures sidelined so , past performance being an indication of future behaviour, the result could be a safe Starmerite middle-manager type up against either Corbyn himself or someone standing in Corbyn's name (Truth and Justice Party, was it?). If you follow the current round of selections, it doesn't look good if you're even vaguely 'of the left'; the chosen candidate is a Starmerite.

 

[redsquirrel]

Shammer will regret a lot of things before it's all over

Hopefully in the time while he's waiting on the scaffold

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Indeed if it's me feel free to remind of that fact. I don't think it's impossible just not very likely. A more likely (and probably more contentious) scenario is if his local party insist on picking him despite Starmer's diktat.
After all regardless of how he fairs outside the party is the fact that for them he is a proven winner. Starmer may very well regret this no matter how it pans out.

Yeah, Corbyn's response as quoted upthread was well-judged, I think, stressing how undemocratic and arrogant it is for Starmer to presume to tell local constituencies whom to choose. Not necessarily a wise battle for Starmer to pick.

 

[belboid]

A more likely (and probably more contentious) scenario is if his local party insist on picking him despite Starmer's diktat.

They won't be able to. Doesn't matter how many nominations he received he would still have to approved by central office. They'd just suspend the local party (as they have done elsewhere during several elections) and impose a candidate.

 

[The39thStep]

My own guess is that Corbyn just won't run, he'll be 75 come the next election and win or lose the result will cause a kerfuffle in the Labour Party and the broader Labour movement that will end up with what little is left of the Labour Left (the puns come so naturally) getting a bit of a kicking. Corbyn has always struck me as someone smart enough to figure out which way the wind is blowing and to know when to not bother pissing into it.
I don't think he would win myself (though I would definitely expect him to come second), The Labour vote was 64% of the vote last time (73% in 2017) so any Corbyn votes will have to come entirely from the Labour pool of voters, he isn't going to pick up any votes from the non-Labour pool though the official Labour candidate might.
He might very well be popular locally but I find it hard to believe that 35% of Islington North's total voters are Corbyn's personal vote share. Especially at a GE when folks won't really be voting for the local candidate but who gets the keys to No 10. Besides that if you're not a Corbyn fanboy why would you vote for him? His Parliamentary career is over and all he is going to do is sit on the backbenches for maybe another five years.
He may or may not be a great constituency MP but why would that factor into your voting if you weren't expecting to need to speak to him (and most people don't)
However even if he does run and he does win then Starmer hasn't really lost the seat anyway. Corbyn is going to vote (or abstain at most) with a Labour Govt on most votes anyway isn't he? The sort of votes where he probably would vote against a Labour Govt are going to be the sort of votes where he would have not to-ed the company line even if he was in the Party.

How odd. I would have thought that having an MP who is seen to be trying to sort out local issues would have been a desirable.

 

[MickiQ]

How odd. I would have thought that having an MP who is seen to be trying to sort out local issues would have been a desirable.

If that's your prime criteria for how you vote rather than which party you support (or oppose) fine but I don't think it would be on most people's list of top 10 reasons.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If that's your prime criteria for how you vote rather than which party you support (or oppose) fine but I don't think it would be on most people's list of top 10 reasons.

It's a phenomenon that has a name: incumbency advantage. If you have built a reputation as a good MP, that can win you a lot of votes. You can point to your record rather than relying purely on promises. Plus there is the recognition factor. Corbyn will be much more well known than anyone Labour chooses to run against him. And he's bound to have a small army of willing volunteers to get out there canvassing for him.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Are you sure this is a line of argument you want to be opening up in this particular week?

I'm not opening up a line of argument, I'm simply stating a fact: I know some gender critical feminists who've previously said they won't be voting Labour.

 

[brogdale]

Corbyn should stand as an independent candidate in Holborn & St Pancras