Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

I quite like "remainiacs" - it's pejorative, without the false accusation that pointing out the manifest deficiencies in the brexiteers' arguments is "moaning".

Yeah I like it, for me it distinguishes between people who voted remain and arent happy about the result and people who are evangelically pro-EU beyond all rhyme and reason.

 

[Kaka Tim]

have to say - going back to the musings in the OP - is that one thing that hasn't really happened is any significant change in public opinion wrt brexit.
Even with no deal looking into view and the promises of a "great deal", "easiest in history" etc failing to become reality - - there is still a solid bloc of support for brexit. There may well be less support than there was - but there has been no fundamental shift.

 

[Ming]

Wow! Never saw that coming.
Boris Johnson’s donor Crispin Odey eyes Brexit jackpot with £300m bet against British firms

 

[teqniq]

another worthless scumbag.

 

[ska invita]

Wow! Never saw that coming.
Boris Johnson’s donor Crispin Odey eyes Brexit jackpot with £300m bet against British firms

Id expect theres a lot of shorting been going on in general
Easy pickings out there if you're in the loop - which no doubt many are

 

[Ming]

Id expect theres a lot of shorting been going on in general
Easy pickings out there if you're in the loop - which no doubt many are

That’s why they’re so enthusiastic about getting a no-deal. Makes perfect sense if you’re a rich disaster capitalist. They’ll make billions and reorder the society. It’s a big fucking deal this.
It only doesn’t make sense if you run it through the lens of any kind of conventional morality.

 

[ska invita]

That’s why they’re so enthusiastic about getting a no-deal. Makes perfect sense if you’re a rich disaster capitalist. They’ll make billions and reorder the society. It’s a big fucking deal this.
It only doesn’t make sense if you run it through the lens of any kind of conventional morality.

Possibly relevant to this - someone vaguely in the know was telling me a theory about Farage and his mates wanting to turn the City back to what it was in his day (the 80s/90s) - I forget all the details now as i was a few pints in, something to do with a culture / class make up change amongst bankers and how Brexit helps them achieve that. God knows...sounded sort of convincing at the time

 

[Ming]

Possibly relevant to this - someone vaguely in the know was telling me a theory about Farage and his mates wanting to turn the City back to what it was in his day (the 80s/90s) - I forget all the details now as i was a few pints in, something to do with a culture / class make up change amongst bankers and how Brexit helps them achieve that. God knows...sounded sort of convincing at the time

Well, i get a lot of shit for saying this but i think this has been the agenda all along. The likely outcomes are what i’m looking at. And they’re not good for anyone but the currently rising international right and financiers looking to make a fast buck. And i’d love to be proved wrong.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Possibly relevant to this - someone vaguely in the know was telling me a theory about Farage and his mates wanting to turn the City back to what it was in his day (the 80s/90s) - I forget all the details now as i was a few pints in, something to do with a culture / class make up change amongst bankers and how Brexit helps them achieve that. God knows...sounded sort of convincing at the time

Come on fella, you’re (eta) WAY better than that crap.

 

[toblerone3]

have to say - going back to the musings in the OP - is that one thing that hasn't really happened is any significant change in public opinion wrt brexit.
Even with no deal looking into view and the promises of a "great deal", "easiest in history" etc failing to become reality - - there is still a solid bloc of support for brexit. There may well be less support than there was - but there has been no fundamental shift.

This is not true and nearly all the polls bear out my opinion on this.

 

[belboid]

This is not true and nearly all the polls bear out my opinion on this.

The Brecon and Radnor poll didn't. The liberal might have won, but it was still a majority of people who voted for hard brexit, with a share down a mere 1%.

 

[Kaka Tim]

This is not true and nearly all the polls bear out my opinion on this.

please link to polls showing a fundamental shift in public opinion. Like a 10% gap in favour of remain.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The Brecon and Radnor poll didn't. The liberal might have won, but it was still a majority of people who voted for hard brexit, with a share down a mere 1%.

And that is with the Tory being the same disgraced fucker who’s shenanigans has caused the election in the first place...

 

[Pickman's model]

This is not true and nearly all the polls bear out my opinion on this.

Perhaps you could list these polls to put the matter to bed

 

[brogdale]

This is Britain Elects L/R tracker of polling.

 

[kabbes]

^^For the avoidance of doubt, yellow is remain and teal is Brexit.

There’s a trend but it’s all quite within the margin of error, really.

 

[kabbes]

Brexit trackers

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations?”

Pollster: ORB International



Fieldwork Approve Disapprove NET
06 May 2019 8 92 Disapprove +84
06 Apr 2019 11 89 Disapprove +78
03 Mar 2019 17 83 Disapprove +66
03 Feb 2019 20 80 Disapprove +60
06 Jan 2019 25 75 Disapprove +50
09 Dec 2018 26 74 Disapprove +48
04 Nov 2018 27 73 Disapprove +46
07 Oct 2018 31 69 Disapprove +38
09 Sep 2018 24 76 Disapprove +52
05 Aug 2018 24 76 Disapprove +52

 

[Supine]

^^For the avoidance of doubt, yellow is remain and teal is Brexit.

There’s a trend but it’s all quite within the margin of error, really.

It shows it goes outside the margin of error for most of this year.

 

[Yossarian]

Interesting that people who want to stay in the EU are Remoaners or Remainiacs. But people who want to leave are dashing Brexiteers.

Still. I'm sure this is just an accident of language and is absolutely fine.

Seems like "Brexit" wasn't the easiest word to adapt into an insult - maybe because it was already the product of mixing "Greece" and "exit" than adapting it for Britain. "Brexitards" was one I heard but it thankfully never caught on.

 

[bluescreen]

Brenda isn't happy. Who's been spilling the beans and why?

She was speaking in 2016 but her feelings have only intensified, sources said

Queen tells aides of her 'disappointment in the current political class' | Daily Mail Online

 

[kabbes]

It shows it goes outside the margin of error for most of this year.

Not any more though. And although it visually appears a strong movement, the scale is really zoomed in — it never actually goes beyond about 55/45. That’s really tight even at the peak. Basically, it’s all still as 50/50 as it ever was.

 

[Supine]

Not any more though. And although it visually appears a strong movement, the scale is really zoomed in — it never actually goes beyond about 55/45. That’s really tight even at the peak. Basically, it’s all still as 50/50 as it ever was.

Any idea what gave that bounce after may? Something turned the tables after a steady move towards remain

 

[kabbes]

Any idea what gave that bounce after may? Something turned the tables after a steady move towards remain

I’m not convinced it’s not all just noise. Polls are not independent from each other, so there is autoregression. That can give the appearance of trends where no trend actually exists.

 

[ska invita]

Come on fella, you’re (eta) WAY better than that crap.

Tbf the guy is a good journalist, it sounded fact based. shouldn't have posted it as I can barely remember what was said! But my hate of Nigel overrode it

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Serge Forward]

Beef and coffee are nailed on. But they forgot prosseco.

 

[belboid]

Beef and coffee are nailed on. But they forgot prosseco.

Not sure how much of our coffee comes from the EU. I fear for our jamon iberico tho

 

[Flavour]

Not sure how much of our coffee comes from the EU. I fear for our jamon iberico tho

the coffee beans themselves don't come the EU of course but many of the roasting and processing companies that package the stuff you find in UK shops (e.g. Lavazza) are based in Germany and Italy.

 

[not-bono-ever]

A great deal of coffee is through a handful of holding companies in Switzerland IIRC - not sure how that effects things and I dont have my thinking head or my notes anywhere

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just drink tea.