Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
    362
Hypothesis : bj is playing tough guy and refusing meetings with eu because it's a vote winner. Once he's confident enough to win a GE the results of which make a successful VONC in his government much less likely, he changes tack. Does he have time?
 
Hypothesis : bj is playing tough guy and refusing meetings with eu because it's a vote winner. Once he's confident enough to win a GE the results of which make a successful VONC in his government much less likely, he changes tack. Does he have time?
What does he gain by changing tack? What tack is there to change? All compromises have been exhausted and he's highly unlikely to flip to remain.

If the EU renegotiate he's a Tory hero forever. If he manages to drag us into No Deal he's a Tory hero forever. If Parliament manage to throw him out while he's pursuing no deal he's a Tory hero forever. No one expects this government to last long. All there is is Brexit.
 
What does he gain by changing tack? What tack is there to change? All compromises have been exhausted and he's highly unlikely to flip to remain.

If the EU renegotiate he's a Tory hero forever. If he manages to drag us into No Deal he's a Tory hero forever. If Parliament manage to throw him out while he's pursuing no deal he's a Tory hero forever. No one expects this government to last long. All there is is Brexit.

He'd rather have a deal. He's much more of a tory hero if he can sell the idea of succeeding where may couldn't and bending the EU to his will. That doesn't mean he actually has to bend the EU to his will, and no doubt he won't, but facts don't matter much anymore in his reasoning. It's all just image management. Banking on ignorance and disinterest.

It's in the interest of the EU to make brexit as painful as possible for the UK. This is a gamble for them too, a pretty big roll of the dice on which the future of the bloc may rest. They need to show the other member states why exiting is not in their interest. They are already doing, have done that through the withdrawal agreement. The alternative, no deal, allows them to make life harder for the UK. Something the EU will do, all the while presenting itself as the smiley reasonable progressive one. Bj knows all this. He's not a tory hero if no deal brexit leads to Cornyn government and/or having to rejoin the EU down the line (obviously on much worse terms than present)
 
Hypothesis : bj is playing tough guy and refusing meetings with eu because it's a vote winner. Once he's confident enough to win a GE the results of which make a successful VONC in his government much less likely, he changes tack. Does he have time?

Yeah
 
Hypothesis : bj is playing tough guy and refusing meetings with eu because it's a vote winner. Once he's confident enough to win a GE the results of which make a successful VONC in his government much less likely, he changes tack. Does he have time?
He can always gain more time by asking the EU for another extension. He said he won't but somehow I don't think hypocrisy is a a deal breaker (no pun intended) for BoJo.
The peeps now singing his praises will hate him and feel betrayed but I at least see that as a good thing
 
Hadn't expected the row back quite this quickly.

View attachment 179270

Time's a wasting. He was always going to have to back down sooner or later and complete reversals have never dented his credibility much in the past. Case in point, that time he suddenly became a leaver after previously stating that leaving the EU would be madness.
 
I'm questioning whether it's worth me doing any work travel this autumn. I usually visit a couple of trade shows, but it's off-my-own back. I'm a thrifty traveller - airbnb opposite a supermarket and take a pack-up with me every day but still... ouchy....

I'm questioning whether it's worth me doing any work at all this autumn. We'll all be eating rats and drinking rainwater by christmas anyway.
 
Back
Top Bottom