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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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they won't vote against gov. in a VONC so how are they going to do that? blowhards.

Would they if it went right to the wire though?

At this point, they can't have much expectation that Corbyn will make a particularly effective PM, what with having very little reliable support in the PLP. I can't see Tory MP's who feel their seats are safe having any major issues about a little spell in opposition. Especially if it doesn't last too long.

Look at it over the last nine years and apart from the Brexit mess, a lot of the more aggressively neoliberal types who are perfectly comfortable with EU membership (ie the ones we're talking about) will feel like it's been a good owd spell and they've done alright.
 
Would they if it went right to the wire though?

At this point, they can't have much expectation that Corbyn will make a particularly effective PM, what with having very little reliable support in the PLP. I can't see Tory MP's who feel their seats are safe having any major issues about a little spell in opposition. Especially if it doesn't last too long.

Look at it over the last nine years and apart from the Brexit mess, a lot of the more aggressively neoliberal types who are perfectly comfortable with EU membership (ie the ones we're talking about) will feel like it's been a good owd spell and they've done alright.
Agree to a point but they've got their constituency parties to consider too. Irrespective of how short lived it might be, would they ever be forgiven for what will be seen as helping corbyn become Pm?
 
Agree to a point but they've got their constituency parties to consider too. Irrespective of how short lived it might be, would they ever be forgiven for what will be seen as helping corbyn become Pm?

no they wouldn't. Its would mean the end of their time in the tory party.
 
no they wouldn't. Its would mean the end of their time in the tory party.
Yes it probably would but losing your job doesn't carry the same worry for a Tory backbencher as it does for the common folk, there's plenty of non-executive directorships out there waiting to be filled especially if helping to stop Brexit (which pretty much the entire business community hates) is on your CV.
Personally I think a lot of them may make noises about supporing a VONC and then chicken out when it comes down to the wire but it only takes a few to actually go ahead and do it.
The one thing Brexit has definitely done is throw all the norms of politics out the window.
 
Yes it probably would but losing your job doesn't carry the same worry for a Tory backbencher as it does for the common folk, there's plenty of non-executive directorships out there waiting to be filled especially if helping to stop Brexit (which pretty much the entire business community hates) is on your CV.
Personally I think a lot of them may make noises about supporing a VONC and then chicken out when it comes down to the wire but it only takes a few to actually go ahead and do it.
The one thing Brexit has definitely done is throw all the norms of politics out the window.

Start with Tebbit and Lamont
 
Yesterday Johnson and Hunt were going on about the necessity of ditching the 'backstop'.
Yet Hunt mentioned some kind of solemn promise to the Irish Republic that there would not be 'infrastructure' on the dividing line of demarcation on the island of Ireland.
For a start the line of division, technically at least, will be between the UK and the EU. In a new reality post leaving there will be, sooner or later, two different systems either side of that divide.
Otherwise in what way is the word 'leave' to become manifest?
With two different systems there will be checks restrictions and restraints. Obfuscating that reality with talk of infrastructure checks 'away ' from the line, hard or soft borders or whatever is fooling who exactly?
There will be a border, just as there is a border between Mexico and the USA, or North and South Korea, or Norway and Sweden.
There may be in the future a similar border between England and Scotland.
Those who voted brexit are expecting to leave, not be joined in the same way any more, and on the island of Ireland that clashes with the GFA which was a hard won attempt to create peaceful co-existence on the island of Ireland.
Hunt and Johnson unsurprisingly continue to talk absolute bollocks on this issue.
 
Over a week for the Brexit thread to grow by just half a page... a good methaphor for how progress on delivering Brexit seems to have stalled.

The pound is heading down against the euro and dollar - seems the markets are no longer seeing a happy ending to this mess in Oct.
 
This is a very enjoyable article about warring factions within err the People's Vote campaign. check out the last couple of paragraphs in particular.

The People’s Vote Campaign Is At War Over Whether It Should Back Remaining In The EU
And people said Bob Crow's no to EU yes to democracy was a shit name
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a new neoliberal/pro-EU party
I think the demand for such a party over the last few years was because there was an impression the Lib Dems were irreversibly tainted by their participation in the coalition government, and done for politically. Recent events have proved this not to be the case, so the likelyhood of a new neoliberal/pro EU party getting off the ground has gone from tiny to completely non-existent.
 
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