Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[andysays]

...Are any of urban's Lexiteers on this thread? What did you assume would be the solution to the NI question, when you voted for Brexit?

I voted to Leave primarily on the basis that a successful vote would cause the Tories major problems, although I'll also be happy to see us out of the EU.

I confess that a solution to the NI question wasn't at the forefront of my mind, but if all the current shenanigans and the impossibility of squaring the circle left by the GFA if the UK leaves but some sort of stitch-up is attempted for NI and this brings a united Ireland (the only sensible long term solution) any closer, then I'll certainly be claiming my share of the credit for that too

 

[Silas Loom]

The Guardian has been working all day to find a Tory who will call for May to go. The best they can find is a plumbing firm boss with a Pat Sharp haircut who donated £7.50 to Cameron and now has buyer's remorse.

If anyone was going to break ranks, they would have done so. Grant Shapps's Pickmans-esque failure to rustle up the requisite numbers for a challenge won't be bettered for a while.

 

[SpackleFrog]

So tell me, how does brexit help Greece?

At this point, for Greece, the only future worth having is outside the Eurozone. So anything that damages the EU is good for Greek workers - and if Corbyn was doing a better job of proposing co-operation across Europe outside EU structures, with particular reference to the Southern peripheral states, then that could be even more positive.

You should read this - it doesn't mention Britain at all so maybe you'll be able to take some of it in: Is The Left Finally Waking Up To Eurozone Realities?

 

[Pickman's model]

The Guardian has been working all day to find a Tory who will call for May to go. The best they can find is a plumbing firm boss with a Pat Sharp haircut who donated £7.50 to Cameron and now has buyer's remorse.

If anyone was going to break ranks, they would have done so. Grant Shapps's Pickmans-esque failure to rustle up the requisite numbers for a challenge won't be bettered for a while.

If you'll recall it was your shapps-esque decision to make it a vote on your staying. Three more votes and you're honour-bound to go.

 

[Pickman's model]

Silas Loom make that two more votes

 

[SpackleFrog]

Two weeks ago you claimed that a hard revoke A50 stance was coming shortly. You're now admitting this was rubbish?

----------

I'm still not convinced that there will be an election, it might happen but it's far from certain. The lack of challenge to May after the election shows that there's not much appetite for a leadership campaign in the Tories, and at the moment no challenger that can draw support from the different strands within the party. The DUP can bluster and shout but putting out the Tories would be a big step. And the FTPA provides more stability for minority governments.

This is the thing innit - if May doesn't have to call an election she won't. The view that Corbyn and Labour just need to sit tight and wait is false - they and the entire labour movement need to be focused on forcing the election *and* on what we're gonna do afterwards. Nobody wants May's job and very few MP's want Corbyn in so she's stuck there and we're all stuck here until we get rid of them.

 

[bemused]

Why is anyone surprised that a free trade deal would require some sort of regulatory alignment and that having an open border with Ireland requires a free trade deal?

 

[Wilf]

There will be quite a lot of headroom for that, and the knives will be out the very second that the final outcome can be pinned on her. Hence the price, I guess.

Yes, I would put good money on her being in post at the point of the pen hitting the document, but after that they turn the life support off.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Just throwing this out by the way - is there not a 3rd option whereby UK and EIRE just do a straightforward no border deal between both countries? Or would that violate Single Market rules?

 

[bemused]

Just throwing this out by the way - is there not a 3rd option whereby UK and EIRE just do a straightforward no border deal between both countries? Or would that violate Single Market rules?

That's the single market.

 

[Silas Loom]

Or would that violate Single Market rules?

Of course it would. Not just the deal, but even the fact of negotiating one.

Interesting that someone with such a shaky grasp on the issues has such firm views on them.

 

[teuchter]

Just throwing this out by the way - is there not a 3rd option whereby UK and EIRE just do a straightforward no border deal between both countries? Or would that violate Single Market rules?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Silas Loom make that two more votes

Could you two not shit all over another thread with this silly little game please?

 

[ska invita]

At this point, for Greece, the only future worth having is outside the Eurozone.

Yet a couple of years back Greeks by a strong majority (more than 2-1) wanted to remain in the Eurozone - which tied Syriza's hands considerably . I'd be interested to see polling for that now though. Just read a little about the most recent budget in Greece...grim doesn't begin to describe it...national strike coming up later this month in response supposedly.

 

[SpookyFrank]

dp

 

[pocketscience]

Because he stated a matter of empirical fact? You're a weirdo. Here you are, net EU contribution divided by population.

That graph's from 2007 - before the greek crisis. Since then the troika's hamstrung the greeks and started on its asset stripping... and decided that Poland should get the money instead.
Explain the logic of that please.

Here's a current graph - from 2017:

 

[SpackleFrog]

That's the single market.

No, that would be a treaty/deal between 2 governments, not 28.

Of course it would. Not just the deal, but even the fact of negotiating one.

Interesting that someone with such a shaky grasp on the issues has such firm views on them.

So what you're saying is that it's explicit in the Single Market regs that (for example) Greece cannot make any kind of deal with Turkey, or that Sweden cannot make a deal with Norway - it all has to be done through the EU and that is explicit in the regs? Which article or treaty says that? Since your understanding is less shaky than mine?

I'm well aware that's the intent - that member states don't do individual deals. But does it explicitly forbid that somewhere and if so where?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

that graph is from 2007 - before the greek crisis. So since the the troika has hamstrung the greeks and started on its asset stripping its decided that the money should go to Poland instead.

Here's one from 2017:

Yours isn't divided by population. Poland has a much larger population than Greece.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yet a couple of years back Greeks by a strong majority (more than 2-1) wanted to remain in the Eurozone - which tied Syriza's hands considerably . I'd be interested to see polling for that now though. Just read a little about the most recent budget in Greece...grim doesn't begin to describe it...national strike coming up later this month in response supposedly.

In 2015 they voted to reject the memorandum which I think most people realised would have consequences for the relationship - I agree with this broadly but I don't think Syriza should be allowed the excuse that their hands were tied. I reckon at this point they'd happily leave the Eurozone if it meant the austerity measures stopped.

 

[teuchter]

That graph's from 2007 - before the greek crisis. Since then the troika's hamstrung the greeks and started on its asset stripping... and decided that Poland should get the money instead.
Explain the logic of that please.

Here's a current graph - from 2017:

It still shows that Greece is a large net recipient. In fact the 2nd biggest in absolute terms - before you take into account population size.

 

[bemused]

No, that would be a treaty/deal between 2 governments, not 28.

Ireland couldn't do it because they'd be allowing goods into the single market.

 

[Pickman's model]

Could you two not shit all over another thread with this silly little game please?

Yeh heaven forfend the serious and wholly worthy argument about Greece and Brexit be interrupted for even an instant. Or Poland or whatnot.

 

[ska invita]

In 2015 they voted to reject the memorandum which I think most people realised would have consequences for the relationship - I agree with this broadly but I don't think Syriza should be allowed the excuse that their hands were tied. I reckon at this point they'd happily leave the Eurozone if it meant the austerity measures stopped.

At any point they can have a referendum on that, to this day. IIRC Yanis V was pushing Syriza to do just that: essentially wanting to say to the Troika give us debt relief or we'll default and go back to the drachma. The fact that the Greek people didn't want that to happen was a factor in the neutering of that threat and that plan. Thats my understanding/memory of it anyhow. I think it was a lot more complex than that, but it does boil down to something around that mark.

 

[Pickman's model]

It still shows that Greece is a large net recipient. In fact the 2nd biggest in absolute terms - before you take into account population size.

Yeh. And what has that to do with brexit, chuck?

 

[SpackleFrog]

At any point they can have a referendum on that, to this day. IIRC Yanis V was pushing Syriza to do just that: essentially wanting to say to the Troika give us debt relief or we'll default and go back to the drachma. The fact that the Greek people didn't want that to happen was a factor in the neutering of that threat and that plan. Thats my understanding/memory of it anyhow. I think it was a lot more complex than that, but it does boil down to something around that mark.

Syriza put the memorandum to a referendum and Greece voted 'oxi' - the Syriza government accepted the memorandum anyway. I think the main factor in neutering that plan was that Syriza didn't want to be put in a position where they had to try and build a future for Greece outside the Eurozone.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Ireland couldn't do it because they'd be allowing goods into the single market.

I was wondering on what scale that would be and whether anyone would really care but it doesn't matter as apparently we're talking significant levels of trade: Reality Check: How much trade is there between UK and Ireland?

 

[bemused]

I was wondering on what scale that would be and whether anyone would really care but it doesn't matter as apparently we're talking significant levels of trade: Reality Check: How much trade is there between UK and Ireland?

It matters because it is the law. If you're in the single market you can't make unilateral trade agreements.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I was wondering on what scale that would be and whether anyone would really care but it doesn't matter as apparently we're talking significant levels of trade: Reality Check: How much trade is there between UK and Ireland?

It certainly seems like people care. There's this whole big fuss about it look.

 

[Silas Loom]

It matters because it is the law. If you're in the single market you can't make unilateral trade agreements.

It’s more that if you are in the EU you can’t. It’s in the Maastricht treaty (Spacklefrog can find chapter and verse himself).

Non-EU EEA or EFTA members can. If we were in the EEA (via EFTA) and sought a customs union as well, though, we probably couldn’t get that ability.

 

[bemused]

It’s more that if you are in the EU you can’t. It’s in the Maastricht treaty (Spacklefrog can find chapter and verse himself).

Non-EU EEA or EFTA members can. If we were in the EEA (via EFTA) and sought a customs union as well, though, we probably couldn’t get that ability.

Never understood why they just didn't go the EFTA route. Politics nerds would have moaned but given how quickly the EU referendum dropped off the political radar once the vote was done I doubt it would have mattered.